MattW

I think box office pro originally was trying to use social media buzz as a secret sauce on top of normal early tracking data. I don't think it worked out for them but it seemed like a real possibility early on, 7-8 years ago.

I'd give black adam a decent chance, the dearth of anything in Sept and most of Oct could give it the edge.

I was looking at september just a couple days ago and came up with a similar 275-300 total. Lower end puts it almost as bad as Jan-Feb were when comparing to pre-pandemic monthly averages. Real feast or famine kind of market. Edit Sept 7: 300-325 Sept 475-575 Oct Somewhere around 600 for Nov Oct 14 edit: Oct ~480 Nov 700-750

Septembers for 2016-2019 averaged out to $660m, looking at next month I have a hard time seeing more than $300m which would be 45%. January was worse with 41% and you have to go back to June 2021 to get a lower percentage. (guessing $500m for Aug and $300m for Sept here)

Good call, looks like 1125 or so. Not sure how I came up with such a low number even after we saw minions opening. Puts July at about 90% of the previous average, best month of the recovery so far beating out Oct last year with 88%. August looks unpleasant to me. This weekend holdovers will do 75-80m, plus 20-30 superpets and maybe a tiny addition from vengeance, 100-110 total. So August holdovers should make 220-250 during the month of August, and new releases I think 250 is being generous. 500m-ish? Hard to say, with a weaker 2nd half of the month very possible a few movies get an expansion the last weekend of the month like Jurassic World did in 2015, but that still wouldn't add that much.

In what way do the numbers still come from ec, charlie doesn't have his own access?

And even with the numbers it's the buzz and tracking thread that's the real value here. Getting dailies a few hours early is nice but ultimately not as big a deal as what the other users provide with presales tracking.

I think Top Gun might still be ahead with today's gross by just a hair, 100k or less. Should be close to 2m, 603.9 vs 603.789 for avatar

50 seems like the over/under to me. It'll be less than 10m on Thursday, and I think +50% then +40% is more than reasonable. Homecoming +53% then +30% Far from home +50%, +35% As likely to go under 50 as it is to go over imo

Basically the same thing that happened last time. Anyway, not sure if bigger Tuesday increase is a real thing or a minions fluke last week. I'll guess Thor 14-14.5 Minions 8 Top Gun 2.7

Yeah, with a weekday level this week in the low 2s I'm also thinking 700 is out for top gun, and that's counting on a labor day expansion where it adds another 15-ish million from there to the end the way jurassic world did. Last week it looked like a real possibility after the holiday lasted through tuesday and even wednesday came in really strong.

Good list. As with everything in the internet age it's a winner take all market, full recovery for the big blockbusters, not so much for the mid-range hits. A couple others might cross the 100m mark but possible some you have going over might not quite make it. 15 seems like a good target. 300+ 100-300 25-100 2022 8 15 2021 1 13 30 2020 2 10 2019 10 21 58 2018 6 28 61 2017 8 25 59 2016 9 21 68 2015 6 23 66

The late presale rush might indicate somewhat better walk-ups than I was thinking before, people buying tickets online day of or just a day before. Was thinking 130-145 before, now I think 140 looks like a good bet, maybe up to 155? 29+42+41+33 for an initial guess.

If it tracks with DM3 for Wed/Thurs that'd put it at 10 to 10.5, but I suspect the holiday/Tuesday effect was a bit bigger this year so I'll guess more like 9.5

Deadline wrote it up as 18.9 in the morning at like 10/11am pacific, then edited their article a few minutes later to the 17m studio number.

That's an incredible tuesday, must be lots of holiday spillover. 18.9 for minions per deadline (they just edited the article to 17.53m). On Monday I was thinking it would be down in the 8-9m range on Wed/Thu but now not so sure, 10-ish might be closer.

Nothing insider here, just my guess.

June ended really strong, 968.8 is 84.7% of the 2016-2019 average june grosses. First half of the year 63.4%. July to me looks like it'll come in just a bit under June's gross, 925 or so, which would be 73% of the previous average.

Monday still bigger than it would have been without the holiday, so daytime shows were that much stronger to make up for the lack of evening showtimes. Edit to add since there's no weekday thread yet I'm expecting around 11 for minions today and 3.5-ish for top gun.

Consensus seemed to be Thurs should have been closer to 9m, that it went significantly above probably means it did a little better outside of metro areas where most of the tracking comes from is my guess. What kind of friday is minions looking at, high 20s to 30-ish is what I gather from the tracking thread. DM3 basically held even Friday to Saturday, Sunday might be down 5-10%, Monday down 15-25%... 10.75+29+29+27+23 seems reasonable if a little on the conservative side.

Biggest tuesday increases were animated movies, Finding Dory 2nd Tuesday was +40% and $4.5m all the way back in 2016, Hotel Transylvania 3 always seemed like the most impressive to me, first tuesday was +70% and $3.5m. In 2019 lotta movies did really well, Aladdin +65% and $3m 2nd Tues, Lion King 45% and $9m then 60% and $6m, Toy Story 4 was 45% and $6.5m

Yeah that's what I have right now, 635-ish with a small labor day bump. Jurassic World expanded the weekend before labor day weekend, made just over a million the week before the expansion, and another 12.3m from there to the end. Top Gun I think will be just a touch higher leading into labor day so I think it depends on how much of a push it gets, could take it up into the 640s, maybe more but I wouldn't bet on it at this point. Edit: looking again, 660 with another 10-15 if the expansion is bigger.

I'll guess top gun comes in between 5 and 5.5 today

2022 seems likely to come in at 6.5-7 billion total. If the streaming windows become more predictable maybe it will help next year somewhat. Higher OW pricing also might help if more chains start that. I would guess higher next year than this year but looking at the releases is not very promising IMO. Maybe there will be a big breakout or two, maybe avatar will buoy the beginning of the year enough to make up for it all. I'll guess 7-7.5b total next year.

Normally I would say a 10% Sunday bump is too aggressive of an estimate, but in this case... Sounds like from earlier in the thread there's even a chance it's underestimated. Man of Steel held even on Sunday and then dropped 65% for Monday. Jurassic World dropped 2% and then 70% for Monday. Solo bumped 9% and then dropped 72% Monday. A 10% bump today could mean more of a Monday drop than man of steel, but this being at half the level of mos I think gives it much more leeway. $5m would be a 71% drop from 17.3 but also down just 25% from last monday.