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MattW

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  1. MattW
    The early tracking a month or so ago was under 30 for the opening, and combine that with the bad rumors about production and other things, plus the long incubation time, it all added up to MMFR looking like a complete dud. Then a week ago tracking had it possibly as high as 40m and things started looking up, then the reviews came in and now with an almost guaranteed 40+ and likely very healthy legs... Things are looking much much better for Max than I expected.
  2. MattW
    Yeah I'm thinking about 900m this sunday, but by next sunday it should have more than caught up with the first Avengers
  3. MattW
    Actuals: http://pro.boxoffice.com/statistics/news/2015-05-04-china-box-office-weekend-actuals-furious-7-takes-victory-lap-as-it-nears-400m-fourth-weekend-at-1-silent-separation-close-second-home-holds-strong-over-holiday They have it at $370.21m instead of yesterday's 381
  4. MattW
    Seemed high to me as well. So is China the only number they're fudging or are there others? True ww total is 12m less, 1417m?
  5. MattW
    That's why you cut out the midnights and the thursday previews. True opening day numbers are from when the theater opens on that day (10 or 11am or so for most places) until closing which is after midnight saturday. Including midnights in the friday number means your "Friday" is actually 27 hours long or so. So having showtimes start at 7pm really is just 5 extra hours, not 8 extra hours.
  6. MattW
    Sunday will be day #12 for age of ultron I believe, day #16 is Thurs.
  7. MattW
    http://www.thewrap.com/avengers-age-of-ultron-on-pace-to-smash-box-office-records-with-over-210-million-opening-weekend/ "It’s on pace to make $97 million for Friday alone."
  8. MattW
    Using the "official" friday number is kind of silly IMO. Should be breaking it up into Thursday and Friday. Avengers = 18.7 + 62.114 + 69.558 + 57.067 AOU current "Friday" estimates: 85 = 27.6 + 57.4 87 = 27.6 + 59.4 89 = 27.6 + 61.4 90 = 27.6 + 62.4 (98 = 27.6 + 70.4 Variety said it, not me)
  9. MattW
    Here's why it's kind of disappointing to me: TDK did 18.5, TDKR did 30.5, both with proper midnights. Avengers is even bigger and the sequel gets an extra 5 hours of shows and increases less. Of course TDKR's marketing was amazing and AOU's hasn't been as good.
  10. MattW
    35, 60, 65, 50 = 210 Bigger Thursday, slightly muted Friday and Saturday and Sunday will be down a bit from the first. That's my guess.
  11. MattW
    I got a BvS trailer but no star wars. Seems like it'd be the reverse
  12. MattW
    Avengers 210.
  13. MattW
    OW - 210 Dom - 525 China - 300 Rest - 800 WW - 1625
  14. MattW
    I don't think it's a binary choice. It's like describing a data set by using just the mean, or using the mean and the median, or both those and the standard deviation. With box office you use the worldwide number of you're only going to use one number to describe a movies performance. If two then domestic and overseas. But the more numbers you use the more accurately you can describe it and China is the logical choice for the next part to separate out as an additional descriptor.
  15. MattW
    The Deadline most profitable of 2014 estimated domestic take at 51% and overseas at 39%, but if my memory serves the WB documents on the money-losing harry potter movie had it at more like 56% and 46%.
  16. MattW
    ~26m for Furious 7, down 56%. Third week maybe 33-34. Even being generous after that I don't think it will hit 350 million.
  17. MattW
    $735m overseas I'm guessing that includes China's Friday number. $548m through Sunday, $120m more from china through Friday, Rth said that Monday everywhere else was 14m, that leaves 53m for Tue, Wed, Thu everywhere else which seems like a lot given monday. I think there's a bit of number smudging going on to get past the line.
  18. MattW
    I'm not so sure about 30-32 for FF7 this weekend. Mon-Wed are looking a lot like Cap2, Wed is even lower. I could see mid-20's for its 3rd weekend.
  19. MattW
    I was taking Rth's 43m as the total overseas which would be 29 China plus 14 everywhere else like Ed# said. 14m seems like a reasonable drop from Monday last week.
  20. MattW
    Through Sunday 550m, Monday 29+14, Tues 26+ at least 10, Wed 22+10, Thurs 20+10 or more. Total through Thurs should be around 690m. Domestic will be ~265 with WW at 950 or more.
  21. MattW
    Is this a possibility or a probability? I read an article about china's view of american movies as propaganda negatively affecting their culture or something like that, so it certainly makes sense that they would limit things (and TF4 had more than a few positive spins on china, example, having it make sense that they "allowed" it to do so well).
  22. MattW
    195 this weekend, 548 total, that means before the weekend it was at 353m. Pre-OW: 60 OW: 185 Mon-Thurs: 108 2nd wknd: 109.5 + 85.5 (existing + new) Existing might end up with 650-700? It seems the consensus on china is 250 or more. The rest maybe 50 or more. Reasonable low end to me looks like 900. High end possibly up to 1075. You can say Paul Walker was a factor on the domestic side, but overseas it's just good marketing and a movie that really delivers blockbuster spectacle and fun.
  23. MattW
    Hollywood reporter says $19m for 7's Friday number: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-furious-7-still-787783
  24. MattW
    So about 30m per day overseas for Mon-Wed?
  25. MattW
    2nd weekend drop after removing opening Thursday was extremely close for the last 3. Only 6 is slightly worse because of a better Sunday due to memorial day. (I did this early last friday)
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