babz06

Just like every year, this record comes down to wildcards. Predictions: 500m: Rogue One 400m: Finding Dory Captain America: Civil War Superman Vs. Batman 300m: ID: Resurgence Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find them 200m: Zootopia X-men Apocalypse Alice Through the Looking Glass The Secret Life of Pets Ghostbusters Suicide Squad Moana Passengers Sing 100m: Ride Along 2 Kung Fu Panda 3 Deadpool The Jungle Book The Divergent Series: Allegiant Miracles From Heaven Neighbors 2 TMNT 2 The Conjuring 2 Now You See Me 2 Central Intelligence Ice Age: Collision Course Star Trek: Beyond Untitled Bourne The Magnificent Seven Storks Dr. Strange The Great Wall Assassin's Creed Total: 34 Films

The team up isnt unique anymore though, plus BvS has a head start on it. I doubt a cameo from Spider-man is going to significantly increase BO. 400m is the best i can see it doing.

Joy had a bit of a drop. Looks like 85-90m instead of 100m+, because of Christmas legs. I don't expect oscar nominations, so it's depending on good wom.

It's going wide after Oscar nominations.

Yeah honestly, it looked liked marketing wanted to hide the fact that it's about a women who invented the miracle mop. Opening on-par with American Hustle is a big win for the studio. Concussion opened on par with other Will Smith dramatic vehicles, and the budget was surprisingly only 35m, so that's going to end up doing pretty good too.

There are several stars with BO power (melissa mccarthy, dicaprio, denzel, tom cruise, will ferrell, sandra bullock, kevin hart) but nowadays movies depends more on concepts + stars than in the past.

I'd say the estimates so far are great for Joy and Daddy's Home, leaning towards the higher end of expectations.

It's still early, the west coast could up strong again and estimates jump to 45-50m.

20-30m would be excellent for Daddy's Home. Smart decision to release this family comedy against Alvin since that one was always going to disappoint.

Well hopefully thats actually the case and SW 8 will move to Christmas. Wonder Woman, World War Z 2 or Pirates of the Carribbean could probably move to May, if that Memorial Day slot is vacated.

Avatar 2 is scheduled for Christmas at the moment though. If anything it looks like Guardians may have to move or else the legs will be cut off swiftly in it's current date.

The Big Short did pretty well on Christmas Eve. Up In the Air seems like the closest comparison, and that did 11.2m against Avatar/Alvin/Sherlock. I expect the same range 11-13m; Depending on Oscar nominations, it should be able to leg its way to 75-80m or more.

Why is deadline predicting Point Break to make more than Concussion and Joy? Its not the only trade doing that either. The tracking seems way off for a movie with zero buzz, and who's main audience will be watching Star Wars instead.

Creed is hanging in there. Does it have enough left in the tank to cross 100 million?

Probably stays flat or decreases.

Jupiter Ascending teas.....

Probably 35m Monday

I doubt the Christmas films will put a dent into Star Wars but the January films will be much more competitive: The Hateful Eight, The Revenant, Ride Along 2, and Kung Fu Panda 3 to name a few. This is why Avatar-like holds are unrealistic. Avatar only had to contend with a Denzel Washington film and some horror flicks. It only really started losing steam towards the end of February/ early March.

Daddy's Home-19m The Big Short-17m Joy-15m Concussion-14m Point Break-9m

Star Wars: The Force Awakens-125m Daddy's Home-22m The Big Short-19m Joy-16m Alvin and the Chimpmunks 4-15m Concussion-14m Sisters-12.5m Point Break-9m Mockingjay Part 2-6m Creed-4m

Ride Along 2 is winning that weekend.

Im really interested to see what Star Wars is going to do to the five new releases next week. Is there any tracking for that yet?

IN

Those were Disney estimates. Deadline was estimating around 250-260 after Friday. Then their estimates dropped to 238-244 yesterday.

Deadline has been overestimating things a bit. I think 240 is a reasonable bet.