The Panda

It's legs haven't been bad at all though, it's held consistently well, especially given the fact that it's pretty limiting who'd be interested in seeing IT (as in being an R horror movie definitely keeps a large chunk of the GA away, so it's still impressive it's pulling off the decent legs that it has)

It happens with every huge breakout. "It was so obvious that it was going to happen!" Hindsight Bias at work.

Some were claiming 200m, but you can go back and check. A lot were not expecting that much until it pretty much opened.

They still had creepy trailers to an extent. It's too early to say what this movie can or can't do, but I have a hard time seeing it do much more than Apocalypse numbers (if even, under 100m is a good probability).

The biggest problem is it's a horror tone but it's not scary at all, not even creepy.

On an extra note about trailer views, they are worth watching. Some general rules of thumb I've found (it's one of the reasons I thought movies like IT and the Revenant would break out as much as they did) 1. If the movie isn't a sequel/comic book movie and it's garnering a lot of views take notice of it. A trailer like IT won't garner the consistent high views like it did if the interest wasn't there. 2. Comic Book films tend to always have inflated views, so it's hard to tell for sure breakouts from them. It's more of an issue if a comic book film isn't getting high trailer views. 3. Pay attention if there's another reason a film might have a high view count, and see if there's a drop off with future trailers. Sometimes a trailer is featured, or looped due to music (Sing had 100m+ on YouTube cause of that) 4. If a franchise film isn't breaking past around 15m views there might end up being an issue. Happened with Apes, trailers views were terribly low. 5. Fanboy centric movies are going to have inflated viewcounts. So if something like The Revenant or La La Land is hitting around 15m views, then there's definitely interest in the film. Compare that to Blade Runner, inflated views due to a strong fan base 6. Comedies and dramas don't necessarily rely as much on viewcounts. Same for WoM horror hits like Get Out. So if a movie turns out to be really good, especially in a barren market, trailer views from months prior might not matter because hype can build up within the week of release.

That's pretty poor, it might cap around 10m views by release. That's bad for a comic book film. Trailer Views aren't everything, and you can't create a predictive model based off of them, but they're major indicators of interest in a film. I applaud Fox for trying to be different with their superhero films, but this one doesn't look like it'll strike the same kind of chord as Logan and Deadpool. Those were trope breaking, this looks like its following generic tropes by the beat.

Happy Death Day 2 You

You're underselling it, my predict was over 300m! But I don't think this will hit 200m, rn. I'll see how the trailer buzz picks up. It just seems like a generic horror movie with the Marvel logo slapped on it.

Here's my left-field predicts for winners BP: Get Out BD: Guillermo Del Torro, The Shape of Water Actress: Saorise Ronan, Lady Bird Actor: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour Supp Actress: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird Supp Actor: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name Original Screenplay: Get Out Cinematography: Dunkirk Editing: Dunkirk Costumes: Beauty and the Beast Production Design: Beauty and the Beast Hair and Makeup: The Shape of Water Original Score: The Shape of Water Sound Editing: Dunkirk Sound Mixing: Blade Runner 2049 Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049 Animated Feature: Coco

Get Out's still the overall strongest movie I've seen this year. I'd also say it's more social commentary than anything else, which definitely helps it. Im pretty confident in it getting a nomination. I think Peele even has a strong chance at a directing nom. It's kind of like a Grand Budapest Hotel type of player. Hell, it could even pull a Silence of the Lambs and potentially win.

Wow, I never would have known if you didn't post it here!

Star Wars has reached the status where the public knows they won't get OD tickets unless they buy early. My Saturday IMAX showing was half sold when I bought my tickets. I was in the fandango line within 30 minutes of tickets being on sale

Star Wars isn't going to be nominated, but it has a much better chance than mother! And it'll certainly have infinitely more non BP noms than mother! (Which will have 0)

Thor: Ragnorak (Thor) - 1st Justice League (DCEU) - 5th Boo: Madea - 5th Last Jedi - 2nd Pitch Perfect - 2nd Insidious - 4th Maze Runner - 3rd Fifty Shades - 3rd

Thor: Ragnarok - 110m Justice League - 105m Star Wars: The Last Jedi - 110m

I wasn't thinking LEGO Batman would make it in, but it has a strong chance given how barren the field is. Cars 3 and DM3 are actual possibilities too.

Yeah, the BR hope was short lived. I see some tech noms and possible wins, but I think it misses a BP nod

Good Friday helped that out though too. Anyways, the hype and build up for JL isn't the same as it was for BvS. Team Up movies seem to also have diminishing returns and hard ceilings that lower each movie.

High competition, no guarantee JL will receive WW receptions instead of BvS/SS/MoS reception, GA may still have a stigma, more fanboy oriented so more frontloaded. WW is the biggest thing going for it, but it also went after a different kind of audience that may not all show back up for a JL movie.

Maybe Logan will be able to pull of a nod here. That fifth spot is really open.

There were animated films that didn't even get nominated last year that would have easily won this year.

I wouldn't say 300m for Thor is likely, and I wouldn't say anything above BvS for JL is likely.

Tele just scored every reaction for one post.

Jumanji is the Daddy's Home/Sing equivalent for this December.