parkerthegreat

Just frustrating. That was Pixar's chance to put up a record that would last as long as Shrek 2's. Watch Illumination pull something out of their ass and be the first animation studio to cross $500m.

Welp, that should put the nail in the coffin. RIP $500m. Fucking Pets can get fucked.

Jungle Book to dollar theatres already, huh? Damn. It may not pass Deadpool after all. So much for my Disney Top 5 Domestic club.

I think IA5 is going to be a non-factor here in the states. Angry Birds total at best.

I think it can do that. Should be even today, and at 85% of TDK Wed and Thu, which evens out the week. Long as Friday can muster even a 50% increase, which from 2.5m shouldn't be too much to ask, Dory can even out enough after the rough drop last weekend.

Not yet. Gotta wait for the weekend to see if it recovers a bit. A <30% drop would very easily restore faith in $500m. Plus, even after the shit weekend, Dory's only $19.7m behind TDK. We've got about $13m of a buffer left before Dory's dreams are true and dead.

No daily breakdown for Dory, but I could live with a $21m weekend. Just under 50% drop, and stabilization next week could do Dory wonders for still hitting $500m.

Damn. Not even a 10% increase, what the hell. Gonna lose major ground to TDK now, that goal is history. New target is $498m, the point at which Disney will for sure push Dory to $500m. F $6.3m S $8.1m (+30%) U $6.2m (-23%) Weekend $20.6m (-50%, steepest drop of the run), running total $422.8m , -$18.8m to TDK (loses $5m this weekend)

Wow, huge Thursday for Dory. Gap to TDK cut to $13.2m if that number holds. The goalposts just keep moving, we're now legitimately looking at TDK's total provided Dory gets better than a 25% increase today.

475m is beyond locked at this point, I think. 500m is what we need to be discussing happening. I don't think it fails to hit that. W 6.4 R 5.4 (-16) F 7.5 (+39) S 9.5 (+26) U 7.5 (-21) M 3.75 (-50) Total: 430m, 15m behind TDK at same point. Were it to follow TDK, we end at 518 mil. I think 500m is locked. It's gonna get too close to it for Disney to not push it over.

After being behind $23m after opening weekend, Dory's cut the lead to $14m and the gap just keeps shrinking. Dory may in fact challenge TDK's final gross if it doesn't collapse against Pets.

Good to see someone else using TDK as the comp. Apart from opening weekend, they've been performing reasonably similar, with the caveat that TDK Mondays are always higher than its Tuesdays, and the opposite is true with Dory. Still really impressed with the jump by Dory. Did not think it could manage a +50% Friday. 500m is just about a done deal. 510m is where I see it for now. BFG disappoints to the surprise of no one. Tarzan is doing better than expectations, though that budget means it will be a very long time before WB recoups the costs, and Purge is doing well. Good weekend overall.

Not a great number, but not terrible. Dory is still gaining on TDK, with the gap down to $20.7m. I'm worried how this lower number is going to affect the weekend number though, my model had it jumping 30% to $13m off a $10m Thursday; now it's gotta jump 50% to do that and I just don't see that happening, which means Dory will likely lose ground on TDK despite it being a holiday.

Not a great number, but not terrible. Dory is still gaining on TDK, with the gap down to $20.7m. I'm worried how this lower number is going to affect the weekend number though, my model had it jumping 30% to $13m off a $10m Thursday; now it's gotta jump 50% to do that and I just don't see that happening, which means Dory will likely lose ground on TDK despite it being a holiday.

If that estimate holds, Dory cuts TDK's lead by $1.5m to $21.2m. $500m looking more and more certain each day. Also, I would be shocked if Dory didn't cross $1b WW, though I think it will pull a TDK and cross it by a hair.

So for anyone curious, I made a sort of comparison between Dory and TDK. Not an exact match, but it's close enough to work, as removing midnights for TDK brings their multipliers to an almost equivalent 3.65 (TDK) vs 3.7 (Dory) . Dory can only trail by $33 mil to reach $500 mil. After losing $23.5 mil on opening weekend, Dory has made up about a million, leaving Dory currently pacing at $22.7 mil behind. Dory's on track for $500 mil.

I know it may not be the most ideal comparison, but Dory started off $23 million behind TDK. If it can make $76m this weekend, it will not have lost any ground over the last 10 days. We all know TDK finished with $533m, so Dory can lose up to $10m off its pace and still cross the magic $500m barrier. I also think it can hold a bit stronger next weekend than TDK's $42m (-43%) and that Tuesdays will be larger its entire run, so that should give Dory a little room to breathe. Unless Pets smashes Dory, I see Dory at $505m-510m end of run.

Kinda surprised how sharply down Zootopia is week over week.

So with Deadpool inevitably crossing $100 million for its OW, and most likely with August seeing $100+ OW for GOTG2 or SS, that only leaves January, September, and October with monthly records under $100 million for OWs: January American Sniper $89.3 mil September Hotel Transylvania 2 $47ish mil October Gravity $55 mil Which month will be the last to have a $100 mil opener?

Tough drop for TFA theatre count. Excellent drop for TFA from Tuesday, however. Practically flat from Monday.

Last week, some schools were still out on Monday, skewing the drops for the week. 30% may be optimistic, but 20% isn't out of the question I think.

That's a little better, giving something like: 34.5 36.8 (+6.5) 22 (-40) 93.3 (about -38) 1 billion is the target; though this doesn't help as much as that $100 mil weekend we were looking for, anything above American Sniper really helps keep that hope alive.

So you're saying something like 120.5 68.7 61.9 250.1? Sounds good to me. Puts us on track for 250/1000 domestic. I like those numbers.

Let's remember that this is Disney, and they did lowball Avengers by several million dollars on its opening weekend. 240 ain't off the table at all, hell even 250 isn't off the table yet. Likewise, JW may be beaten WW when all is said and done. The force is strong with this one.

57 63.5 71 +11.8% 58.6 -17.5% 250.1 My predict is realistically in play here.