TLK

No.

I think this is correct as Bay signed a two movie deal with Paramount ( P&G + TF4).

TH2 : DoS will decrease domestically but overseas markets are a different beast these days. If the competition there is light then DoS may very well increase over The Hobbit 1.

^^^ Yeah, he is wrong on that. STiD has less than 5% chance of beating MoS. Superman is huge overseas and no one cares about Star Trek. Star Trek will get destroyed by FF6 and TH3 in the overseas markets.

I think P&G has one of those deal where once the studio breaks even on their investments, most of the profits will go to the main players - the producers, Bay, The Rock and Wahlberg. Bay signed a two for one deal with Paramount (TF4 + P&G) and this was Paramount's way of thanking him for all the previous Transformers movies.

Pain & Gain was a gift from Paramount to Michael Bay. They don't care if it makes any money for them.

http://www.deadline.com/2013/04/michael-bays-pain-gain-750k-late-night/#utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter FRIDAY 6 PM, 2ND UPDATE: Uh-oh, everything is heading lower. Pain & Gain (2,950 theaters) is still #1 today and this weekend. My sources say that based on matinee trends it should open with $8 million today – including $750K in Thursday evening/Friday midnights – and a projected $21M weekend. #2 is Tom Cruise’s Oblivion which was in the top spot last week and has a gifrom Universal with $5.3M Friday and an expected $17M this weekend. #3 is Legendary Pictures’ Frankie Robinson biopic 42 with $4M Friday and $13M weekend. #4 is Millenium/Lionsgate’s alleged romcom The Big Wedding (2,633 theaters) opening today with $3M Friday and $9M weekend. Reviews were Awful #5 is DreamWorks Animation’s The Croods toon from Fox with $2M Friday and $7M weekend.

This will drop hard next week. There is an almost complete overlap of audience with IM3 - males in their 20s and 30s.

Exactly. These aren't even midnight numbers as $750k includes a lot of evening previews.

You need a subscription to read this article and I don't have one but two things - a) Hollywood studios share in China is 25% of the gross and 2) China has imposed some new tax that Hollywood hates and there is a big dispute going on. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324743704578447010231952762.html?mod=WSJ_hps_sections_business Twentieth Century Fox is refusing to accept about $23 million it is owed on Chinese box-office receipts for producing "Life of Pi" as a result of a clash between Hollywood and Chinese authorities, studio executives say. The dispute centers on a new value-added tax that China is in the process of imposing on a wide range of goods and services. When it comes to movie tickets, state-owned distributor China Film Group has recently sought to deduct the cost of the tax entirely from foreign producers' share of the box office, said several people involved in international film distribution.

This whole Reese thing is over-rated. She was neither driving nor she tried to assault the cop. This particular cop decide to handcuff her and charge her. They will prosecute her husband and drop all the charges against her. She will be fine. The bigger travesty is the movie she is apparently filming in Atlanta. It sounds just like The Blind Side even down to her copying Sandra Bullock's personality and her her hair color. As if TBS wasn't bad enough ...

Full release schedule is here. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/schedule/?view=bydate&release=all&date=2013-05-03&showweeks=5&p=.htm

Has anyone mentioned Kristen Stewart yet ? Jeff Wells thinks that she is done in Hollywood. I am not surprised at the outcome just the speed of it.

1) Will Pain and Gain open to more than 20 million? NO 2) Will The Big Wedding finish in the top 3? YES 3) Will Pain and Gain have a Saturday increase of more than 15%? NO 4) Will The Big Wedding make more on Saturday than 42? YES 5) Will Oblivion fall less than 52%? YES 6) Will Pain and Gain make more than 500K for midnights and early Thursdays? (if no number is reported, then everyone gets this question right) NO 7) Will Scary Movie 5 fall less than 50%? NO 8) Will Place Beyond the Pines drop more than 38%? YES 9) Will Pain and Gain make more than 1 million internationally this weekend? YES 10) Will IM3 make more than 100 mill internationally when reporting is released on Sunday? (We will only use estimates from Sunday) YES 11) Will IM3 make more than 18 mill in the UK? YES 12) Will IM3 make more than 10 mill in Australia? YES 13) Will IM3 make more in The UK and Russia combined than the total gross of The Big Wedding and Pain and Gain combined? NO 14) Will The Croods increase more than 85% on Saturday? YES 15) Will Oblivion increase more than 25% on Saturday? YES Bonus 1: What will the top 5 cume be? $67.300 Million Bonus 2: What will Pain and Gain gross this weekend? $17.500 million Bonus 3: What will the combined weekend gross be of Evil Dead, JP3D and The Host? $4.650 Million What finishes is spots? 4 42 5 The Croods 9 Olympus Has Fallen 13 Tyler Perry's Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor

Jandrew is right. Battleship was the last UNI bomb and almost everything since then has done well. WB has issues right now. They had 5 movies in a row underwhelm at the Box Office this year before 42 succeeded.

Oblivion Into Darkness

Top 15 1: Iron Man 3 - $335 million 2: Fast & Furious 6 - $285 million 3: Despicable Me 2 - $280 million 4: Man Of Steel - $260 million 5: Star Trek Into Darkness - $250 million 6: Monsters University - $240 million 7: The Hangover Part III - $180 million 8: Planes - $180 million 9: Pacific Rim - $165 million 10: Epic - $145 million 11: World War Z - $145 million 12: Lone Ranger - $145 million 13: The Smurfs 2 - $140 million 14: After Earth - $130 million 15: Elysium - $130 million International Flair #1 (WW): 1: Iron Man 3 - $855 million 2: Fast & Furious 6 - $835 million 3: Despicable Me 2 - $680 million 4:. Man of Steel - $440 million 5: The Smurfs 2 - $590 million 6: Star Trek Into Darkness - $570 million 7: Monsters University - $560 million 8: The Hangover Part III - $530 million 9: Planes - $530 million 10: Pacific Rim - $465 million International Flair #2 (BEST WW WEEKEND)no gross required: 1: Fast And Furious 6 2: Iron Man 3 3: Star Trek Into Darkness 4: Despicable Me 2 5: Monsters University Opening Weekend (3-day)DOMESTIC 1: Iron Man 3 - $ 145 million 2: Fast And Furious 6 - $95 million 3: Star Trek Into Darkness - $90 million 4: Man Of Steel - $85 million 5: Monsters University - $70 million 6: Despicable Me 2 - $70 million 7: Pacific Rim - $55 million Lowest grossing films (no gross required) 1: The Purge 2: The Big Wedding 3: Now You See Me 4: The To-Do List 5: The Internship Preseason Bonus #1 Lowest Grossing Movie 5) Mortal Instruments : City Of Bone $25 million Preseason Bonus #2 Highest grossing Movie 3) Two Guns $100 million Preseason Bonus #3 Highest grossing Internationally 5) Fast and Furious 6 $550 million PRE SEASON Triple BONUS QUESTIONS Question 1 No Question 2 No Question 3 Yes Question 4 Yes Question 5 Yes Question 6 Yes Question 7 No Question 8 No Question 9 No Question 10 #4 Question 11 Yes Question 12 No Question 13 Abstain Question 14 Abstain Question 15 Abstain Question 16 Bonus Question Of All Bonus Questions 1) No 2) Yes 3) No 4) No Question 17 A) No No C) Yes D) No Edited - Question #3 From No to Yes

One more thing to remember is that the volume of new releases is very sparse. Only 6 new movies are being released in the next 4 weeks. IM3 will take away a lot of screens in two weeks but a movie like Oblivion should be able to keep most of its theaters until memorial day weekend. This can have better legs than its CS score may indicate.

Oblivion's CS is a bit weak. Ben Fritz ‏@benfritz 8m Oblivion CinemaScore: B-. I'm guessing some folks were disappointed or confused by the twists at end

It is possible that today's numbers are muted because of the TV coverage so Saturday could be stronger than usual.

This will be over in a day or two so it isn't going to matter.

I read an interview with Fogelson a couple of months back and my impression was that he isn't sure if Damon will be back. He spend a lot of time taking about expanded Bourne universe and the new directions that they can take the story to.

If Rock wants to be a part of FF7 then they will shuffle the schedule to make it possible. My impression is that he is not fully sold on FF7 shooting this summer.

Ted 2 is supposed to shoot in September this year and will be coming out in 2014.

Two words - Chris Hemsworth.