Ent

This is a good number, in line with where i always thought it would land on opening weekend, between $165M and $175M. I see it finishing ultimately between $385M and $415M depending on the wom.

I don't know how the terrorist attacks in Brussels right now will influence the level of attendance in here as well as in the neighboorhing countries but everything in Brussels and in many belgian cities are closed, from theaters to schools to subways, busses, tramways. Also, one of my sister who lives in London told me that there have been an influx of policemen all over the place. Same in Amsterdam, Paris, Lilles, ect. It should have been the last time of the year for young people to have a good time before exams and during the Easter hollidays, to go to theaters, have a good time and now the mood has changed. I don't know how much it will impact the BO of new releases.

1) Captain America: Civil War 2) The Jungle Book 3) Independance Day: Ressurgence 4) Dr. Strange 5) Star Wars: Rogue One

I think doing those numbers is perfectly normal for a CBM that is relatively new in the market, unless it has like Zootopia kinda universal overwhelming critical rate and behave totally crazilly. China and other markets didn't have the same multigenerational experience in terms of massive exposure with Batman and/or Superman than in the US. China basicly exploded with CBMs craze at the same time as the MCU took over. MARVEL basicly did the heavyweight job for years and occupied a relatively virgin market every single year since 2008, delivering two products per year that were consistently at least well received in line with the growing market level of reception. IM didn't make $120m from the get go, it had two previous movies that did decent to good , in line with the numbers that were considred good at the time, while popularizing his character in China. The mcu brand grew there in line with the market's own growth and Marvel took massive available market shares. You have basicly only Marvel CBM (be it from Marvel, Sony or FOX) occupaying the top ten highest CBM gross and when you look at the merchandising overseas, Marvel, starting with Spiderman began to explode around 2009 seating literally unchallenged on its hegemony overseas. There is no coincidence. So with that, to expect DC two biggest characters to behave like Marvel biggest performers from the get go ,especially after MOS so so reception isn't really something likely to happen. It will need, two or three DC movies in row, consistently well received to start building its brand and start adding incrementally those additional grosses that make any big blockbuster into a potential guargantuesque massive one.

It will hit a billion. I see it finishing somewhere between TDKR and IM3.

I dare say that it will do AOU numbers, aka $950M. It shows that IM alone is able to pull off avengeresque type of numbers abroad and that China can make the difference. I therefore think that the combination of having IM, Spiderman, an increasingly popular CA, the inflation price, the lesser exchange rate and a potential better movie could push those IM3 $685M pre China to around $700 - $715M at least before China adds in when it comes to CA:Civil War. China could overtake AOU's $240M and ends up somewhere between $250 - $280M if the movie really deliver and the current hype post the last trailer translates very well. I think it will open around im3/AOU in a lot of territories but have better legs than AOU overall and claim the number one CBM in China, pushing the BO in the vicinity of AOU's numbers.

Do you see CW final BO more in the vicinity of TA, IM3 or AOU ?

I think it will be big but i don't see the same hype as let say TDKR. Considering what seems to be lesser hype than TDKR, inflation, 3D and a much lower euro currency among other currencies that have lost value against the US dollar, i think it could end up in the vicinity of $700M - $730M.

http://www.screendaily.com/box-office/zootopia-to-cross-500m-worldwide/5101664.article?blocktitle=LATEST-INTERNATIONAL-BOX-OFFICE-NEWS&contentID=40071

Is it now official that Civil War will open on May the 6th ?

Noone should feel depressed when a great movie with great ratings is rewarding by great grosses. It's not always the case. So for once the great movie is rewarded accordingly. It's not like Zootopia hasn't got a stellar critical ratings and audience ratings in both China and the US. So, personally no suprise here about its legs since they translate perfectly the stellar critical reception it got.

I dare say $950M. Spidey, Panther and Antman basicly replacing Thor and Hulk in an avengeresque team movie make me think that it could pull off around AOU opening numbers in a lot of countries but with better legs here and there to compensate the lower opening numbers elsewhere. So AOU numbers or something between TA and AOU numbers could be reached if the movie really deliver.

It might thanks its second release for it. Wasn't it in the $1.8B before its 2012 rerelease ?

It's actually 8 days when considering the worldwide gross. It started rolling out on the foreign market two days before the domestic one, on wednesday the 16th december.

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice 2m2 minutes ago STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS earned an official estimate of $38.1M on Wednesday. 6-day domestic total is a... http://fb.me/HWS1Ie5Y

Is MJ2 will be able to even reach $25M at the end of its chinese run ?

Pan isn't playing anymore or is it just that his results are too small ?

Wow at Antman jump ! !

On wednesday i think.

That's something ike $82M, right ?

To me if Antman finishes in the top 3 highest CBM after Ultron and IM3, that will make it the 3rd MCU movie since 2013 to reach and close the entirely MCU heavy top 3 highest CBM in China. That's one hell of a presence upon which to build up the hype around several characters who are about to crossover in Civil War . When 3 characters from CIVIL WAR will have appeared in 4 movies out of the 5 highest CBM grosses in China, that's a plebiscite sealing the increasing popularity of Marvel characters, mainly the MCU ones. Civil War will basicly be a sequel to CATWS but also a follow up of the adventures of three characters having each a movie in the top 5 most popular CBM, very recently. That's an advantage that both BvS and Apocalypse don't have. Basicly Marvel has built its characters popularity through years of presence on the big screen and created a growing fanbase around those characters played by the same actors they learned to love. They are already emotionally invested in them. BvS have icons but iconic status doesn't necessarily translate into instant supremacy in the BO. Ask Wolverine ! BvS higher BO expectations will basicly entirely be dependant of the movie quality first and foremost because there is no buildup from previous well received movies featuring the same characters played by the same actors. BvS BO expectations is entirely based on the premise that the iconic status and fame of the characters will be automatically translated into instant supremacy, making them suddenly more popular and more lethal in the BO department than CB characters who have acceeded to that throne through years of movie contributions. They didn't become popular from a status or a fame predating their movies. They built their own popularity, step by step around movies, year in, year out. It's really a matter of if iconic status and historic reputation is as strong or stronger an incentive than current popularity built on recent contributions in highly popular movies. To me at least, it's clear that all things remaining equal (movie quality,window slot for its release) Civil War has more incentive, more hype, more buildup, more goodwill from three different characters and several previous popular movies than BvS or Apocalypse. The main variable that may hinder its reception after a potential great opening weekend is if the movie is bad or even lackluster or if the slot isn't as great to enable it to breath and maximise its profits.

TA had crossed it while chinese release was underway though. Not to mention most foreign countries were in their third week as opposed to the second one for most AOU latine american ones...

And i never said they couldn't have their opinion. I just said that their opinion on the entire run, which could have ended up to be true was more based on rush conclusions based on the very first two days post OW than on a real tendency. That's to me was more of a panic based opinion than on real tendencies since you can't have a tendency out of two days only, especially, at this stage.

It's not that i saw that coming (i hoped it would be great after a stellar opening) but my background is economics and financial analysis. And i know that as an analyst, puntcual events can derail projections for a short period of time or not and that you need several days of compiled data to have definite tendencies and draw more precise projections out of it. I knew that it was too early two days in after the massive opening weekend to form any definite projections one way or another because there were zero tendencies at this stage, just punctual data that could be influenced by anything.

Actually it hasn't. Bar from the last monday and tuseday where students were into exams, it has been pretty consistent in terms of daily high revenues. It's just that some people panicked and were quick to draw conclusive tendencies out of punctual behaviour.