Quigley

I just hope Mockingjay finally escapes from sub-$30M range.

When do the school holidays end?

Guardians will surpass Thor: The Dark World by next weekend. Never expected it to be the lowest-grossing Phase 2 film overseas.

Last year's 10th film (Thor 2) earned $645M. I believe an indicator for a successful film is whether it top the previous year's 10th film. Big Hero 6 and Interstellar should reach that figure to be deemed a success. The expectations for Mockingjay - Part 1 and Hobbit 3 are obviously higher.

Whatever you say, $1 billion worldwide is NOT happening.

Late legs will b obliterated because screen share will drop from 13% to 3%

Guardians will probably decrease dramatically this weekend in China so my final prediction for its WW total is $770M ($330M + $440M). It will end at 51st all-time worldwide, just short of Star Wars (ironically another non-sequel sci-fi adventure film). http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/

Question about EntGroup: the table that is published here (http://english.entgroup.cn/boxoffice/cn/) contains the cumulative gross for all these films in dollars. How do they calculate that? Do they take the cumulative gross in yuan and then divide but the current exchange rate? Or do they convert the weekly grosses based on the weekly exchange rate and then add them up?

I've heard (read) many people mention that Latin America wasn't as strong as expected for Catching Fire. However, let me offer a different view: As you can see, all Latin American countries are in top half of the chart i.e. they had a higher % increase than most other territories. (no. 52 is Japan, which is the last one and the only one that decreased). Only Brazil is in the bottom half and that can be attributed to its depreciating currency, which had a much lower value in November 2013 than in March/April 2012 (20% decrease during the aforementioned period). It could be possible that Mockingjay will see similar increases again. But any increase really could only help the overseas gross go higher than it was for the second one. Besides, one-and-a-half years (between Hunger Games and Mockingjay) isn't enough for a franchise to reach its full potential. Then again, if we think about the Twilight Saga, that reached its full potential with the second film (with the exception of the last film, the overseas gross of which can be attributed to the "final film" effect).

1. It stalled because of the DVD release - let's not hide the facts. The % drops from one weekend to the next were a lot higher after the DVD release. 2. Even if it hadn't stalled, HP7: P2 was still very far away and surpassing it was extremely unlikely. It would need $415M in NA and about $925M overseas (WW=$1340M). Japan would have to reach $300M (instead of $250M).

EntGroup updated last week's results (which were underestimated). GotG ended that week with $70.22M and this week with $88.04M (which will also be updated). http://english.entgroup.cn/boxoffice/cn/Default.aspx?week=2014-10-20

The most ridiculous record of the week: 'Maleficent' has surpassed 'Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides' in North America to become the second-highest-grossing non-Marvel live-action 3-D Disney film after 'Alice in Wonderland'. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/studio/chart/?studio=buenavista.htm

It's 63% above Wreck-It Ralph in rubles, but WIR earned more in dollars. It's also on par with Tangled in rubles, although in dollars that movie made close to $9M. These exchange rates are so damn low...

All in all, reaching $900M WW will be tough I think.

I think he meant overseas

Reply to Noctis: Reply to Quigley: Reply to Quigley: I wasn't talking about its opening weekend gross or its total overseas gross. I was talking about how long it will remain as the biggest overseas gross among films not directed by James Cameron. It will (most likely) retain that record for 4 years, which pales in comparison to LOTR 3's 8-year period. The gross may be extraordinary but that is irrelevant to my argument. If you find it funny when someone says "8 is bigger than 4", at least keep it to yourself.

Do you really think Hobbit 3 won't surpass TF4? I think it will reach at least $1.1B and might even surpass LOTR 3. It is the final part of the trilogy, China continues to grow and the Hobbit 2 was actually well-received compared to the first (higher rating on Rotten Tomatoes, Metacritic, Flixster and equal to Hobbit 1 on IMDb). Just look at the bumps that HP7: P2, LOTR 3 and Twilight 4: P2 had (all are final chapters).

Guardians managed to drop 61% from last Friday. Not disastrous. $100M though is out of the question.

Because... Guardians of the Galaxy?

It's quite bad for Guardians too. I mean at this point, $8M is the best-case scenario for the weekend. That's a 62% drop from last weekend.

Excluding James Cameron films, the previous record holder was Pirates 4 (whose record held for a bit more than a month). Before that it was The Lord of the Rings 3, whose record held for 8 years. Sorry, but HP7 - P2's streak is nothing extraordinary or even close to that.

GotG dropped an estimated 46% from last Thursday. A bit suprising since one would expect midnight showings for Lucy to cause a larger decrease for other films. We'll see when actuals come out.

Let's put it this way: It made $89M in China and $895M ONA. Even if all territories except China stayed flat and if China made $200M, Avengers 2 would still reach $1B. Of course, most territories will increase, so $1B is a given.

Wednesday drop from last week is 48%. Showtimes are dropping to 14.4%, compared to 31.8% last weekend. So its screen occupation will drop by 55%. A similar drop in weekend gross would mean around $9.6M (45% of $21.3M). So including Thursday earnings, it will have earned about $88M by Sunday.

TF4 also ranks 6th on the overseas all-time chart. Fun fact: there are more films in the $800Ms than in the $700Ms. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/?pagenum=1&sort=osgross&order=DESC&p=.htm