Quigley

Horrible Bosses 2 ahead of Big Hero 6, Interstellar for the weekend? http://variety.com/2014/film/news/mockingjay-dominating-box-office-heading-for-23-million-weekend-1201372008/ The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1: $23M Penguins of Madagascar: $11-12M Horrible Bosses 2 $9M Big Hero 6 $7.5M Interstellar $5.7M

What about the best-sellling DVDs/Blu-rays of all time?

Classic Hollywood, where money reigns over every other human value.

-7.3% from last year still looks pretty bad though :/

Thanks. But could you give a more thorough analysis (what movies come out and how much they need to earn for $5B to happen)?

Sorry. I meant $5B.

Is $10B possible? (Around 31B yuan I think)

I don't know what Fullbuster said about this law but judging from what he has said in other threads in the past, I can easily be persuaded that he's wrong and that whoever's against him is right. Registering recently doesn't mean that someone is dumb and unexperienced in judging whether laws are good/effective. It also doesn't mean his opinion counts less than others.

Allow me to brag a bit about the accuracy of my prediction. TWEET FROM BOXOFFICE.COM: PENGUINS OF MADAGASCAR opened with $25.45M this weekend. 5-Day domestic total stands at $35.44M. #PenguinsOfMadagascar

Not quite. Not yet (and possibly never).

Final prediction North America $185M Overseas $490M

Percentage increase of sequel: The Dark Knight +167% Shrek 2 +90% The Twilight Saga: New Moon +81% Despicable Me 2 +79% Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest +63% Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (2D to 3D) +47% Hangover Part II 26% The Hunger Games: Catching Fire +25% How to Train Your Dragon 2 +25% Cars 2 21% Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen +18% Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa +13% Iron Man 2 +6.6% Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers +6.2% Kung Fu Panda 2 (2D to 3D) +5.4% Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows +4.1% *Films that decreased from the orginal, films that earned less than $500M, prequels, sequels of prequels, sequels of sequels and post-Avengers MCU sequels are not included. Percentage change from seuqel to threequel: Toy Story 3 (2D to 3D) +119% Men in Black (2D to 3D) 3 +41% Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (2D to 3D) +34% Transformers: Dark of the Moon (2D to 3D) +34% Madagascar: Europe's Most Wanted (2D to 3D) +24% Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King +21% Spider-Man 3 +14% The Dark Knight Rises +8.8% The Twilight Saga: Eclipse -1.6% Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkhaban -9.4% Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End -9.6% The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1 -13% (if the WW total is $750M) *Films that earned less than $500M, prequels, sequels of prequels, and post-Avengers MCU sequels are not included. Hunger Games has at least set one record: a record-low among threequels.

The drop is -57%. Any drop smaller than -60% cannot be deemed disastrous, but this is still steeper than expected. In comparison, after removing Brazil (which opened a weekend earlier) and all the new openers, Catching Fire fell -50% from its first to its second weekend.

Enjoying the Penguins debacle. It is one of the most front-loaded toons ever that played during Thanksgiving. There is ABSOLUTELY NO WAY that its Saturday-to Sunday drop will stay at -41%. Mark my words. The drop will be at best -44% (5-day total at $35.7M) but probably around -47% (5-day total at $35.4M). http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=penguinsofmadagascar.htm

I agree with your point but we're talking about a possible total around $80M. They definitely wanted it to cross $100M.

Why do you even care about Deadline cumes? They are always wrong. Just use the daily numbers.

Should the estimate for MJ1 hold, I believe it is now safe-r to say that it will cross $300M in North America. See comaprison with Deathly Hallows - Part 1 here: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=katnisspotter.htm

Based on comparison with 9 other animated films that played during Thanksgiving (Bolt, Happy Feet, Frozen, Tangled, Wreck-It Ralph, The Muppets, Rise of the Guardians, Megamind and Madagascar 2), Penguins will earn $36-37M over 5 days. That is higher than the $32.3M 5-day opening of Rise of the Guardians. However, that film was Christmas-themed which allowed it to have a very impressive post-Thanksgiving weekend hold (-43%) and very small decreases in the weekends leading to the Christams holidays (no bigger drops than -31%). Guardians made $103M in total. Penguins had a lower CinemaScore (A- vs A) and is a prequel so it will definitely be more front-loaded. I don't see how it could cross $100M. Also, if we compare it to The Muppets, another franchise-based film that opened over Thanskgiving to $41.5M, Penguins could earn less than $80M by the end of its run.

Among the films mentioned above, the worst Wednesday-to-Thursday drop was posted by Tangled (-32%). Penguins was even worse, falling 37%. It may even struggle to reach $35M by Sunday.

This is how much Penguins of Madagscar will earn on its 5-day weekend if it follows the trajectory of the films below (based on pre-Thanskgiving Wednesday gross): Bolt ~$45M Rise of the Guardians ~$42M Happy Feet ~$42M The Muppets ~$40M Frozen ~$38M Tangled ~$36M Given that it's non-original, it will probs be more front-loaded, so $40M is a best-case scenario.

Significant increase of screen share for Interstellar compared to estimates - it will drop only 33%. Not bad.

So how much did Interstellar drop?

But Maleficent trailers had more action. Cinderella just looks like the classical fairytale. Men will not be intrigued.

So what is your OS prediction?

Any particular reason for these inflated numbers? Apart from the social media traction in China, all arguments I read are "I liked the trailer so the film will do well"...