Quigley

Big Hero 6 has officially crossed $200M overseas: http://www.screendaily.com/box-office/night-at-the-museum-3-bids-to-extend-rule/5081883.article?blocktitle=LATEST-INTERNATIONAL-BOX-OFFICE-NEWS&contentID=40071 Nothing sgnificantly interesting this weekend. I'm only hoping for a small % weekend decrease in Japan. The action starts the following weekend.

Ode to my Father: very impressive Also, Frozen remains the queen of foreign films in 2014 - both in grosses and admissions. Sorry Interstellar. http://www.screendaily.com/box-office/ode-to-my-father-tops-10m-in-s-korea/5081805.article?blocktitle=LATEST-INTERNATIONAL-BOX-OFFICE-NEWS&contentID=40071

BH6 made about $2M in Japan on Monday. Higher than Sunday.

Its total in North America is less than 'The Muppets'. Catastrophe. I think it won't reach $300 million overseas. My prediction is $292 million overseas and $377 million worldwide. Hoping that DWA will go bankrupt in 2015.

It turns out that BH6 only made $12.6M during the weekend. That's a 41% drop from last weekend. Thought it had held better but it made $15.4M during the weekdays so I can't complain. Only a few minor debuts next weekend, but I hope the summer holidays in Latin America and Australia help it reach $210M by next weekend. Many European territories arrive in late January and early February but with the EUR-to-USD ratio having fallen to a neraly ten-year low, reaching HTTYD2's worldwide gross will be tough. Let's hope for the best.

$408.9 million total for Big Hero 6. The drop in North America this weekend (-53%) was about average (-51%) among releases with more than 1000 theaters. Overseas, the film had an excellent week and is now at $194.5 million. With no new major releases this past weekend, it seems to have had very small decreases in some territories but no weekend number has yet been disclosed. With a holiday in Japan on Monday, it will reach $200 million before Friday.

Can someone finally change the title of this thread (I don't know how to do it or even if I can do it)

2015 WORLDWIDE GROSSES 2014 was a rather mediocre year. Although overall, business was satisfactory, many individual films failed to meet expectations. There were some surprises, both pleasant and disappointing but no insane outliers (apart from 'Guardians of the Galaxy'). If anything, we learnt not to underestimate Marvel but to expect negative reception to greatly influence well-established franchises (Spider-Man, Transformers, The Hunger Games). That is true only in North America though. I think I must finally note how important China is becoming: this booming market has seen many Hollywood productions gross more than in North America Its exponentially expanding screen capacity means that it is more vital than ever before for a film to succeed in China - look no further than Transformers 4 for proof. That being said, other traditionally strong markets must not be underestimated because China alone is not enough - an obvious example this year is Frozen in Japan. In 2015, there are many strong franchises and it will almost definitely be the biggest year ever in cinematic history. Let's cut to the point: 1. Avengers: Age of Ultron $1710 million 2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens $1120 million 3. Spectre $1050 million 4. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 $970 million 5. Furious 7 $880 million 6. The Minions $820 million 7. Inside Out $690 million 8. Tomorrowland $680 million 9. Mission Impossible 5 $640 million 10. Ant-Man $635 million 11. The Good Dinosaur $610 million 12. Jurassic World $570 million The Marvel Cinematic Universe is completely unprecedented, including the success of 'The Avengers'. No one can really tell if that film behaved like a super-sequel or an original film - probably a bit of both, boosted by extremely positive audience reception. It is thus difficult to predict the sequel's gross. I believe the closet comparison we have is 'The Hunger Games'. This built up massive hype prior to release despite not being a sequel and had an enormous opening weekend. Excellent word-of-mouth propelled it to over $40M. Its sequel was even more massive but only slightly more. Many are suggesting that 'The Avengers' also reached saturation levels so I cannot see 'Age of Ultron' earning a lot more. This is the case for North America but outside of it there's a different story. Booming markets including -you guessed it - China will expand greatly so a worldwide total ahead of the first one is guaranteed (NA: $630M, outside: $1080M). Speaking of cinematic universes, another one is vying for one of the top positions: 'Star Wars'. The hype is immense, as Disney can barely avoid secrets being spoiled and cannot keep up with the leakage of photos/footage (also a problem with 'Age of Ultron'). The prequels were very successful in their corresponding years and overseas expansion since the last one hit theaters ('Revenge of the Sith' in 2005) is definitely going to push 'The Force Awakens' higher than any other chapter. By how much no one can know but anything below $1 billion is already looking like a disappointment (NA: $380M, outside: $740M). The final film to reach $1 billion is 'Spectre'. After earning $1.1 billion, 'Skyfall' reassured that James Bond films remain extremely popular, even 50 years and 23 films later. 'Spectre' would need to drop 10% from its predecessor to elude the coveted billion-dollar mark which seems unlikely even if the film is not as well received (mainly due to China's expansion). I'll split the distance and predict $1050 million (NA: $275 million, outside: $775 million). Finally, there is a possibility of a fourth billion-dollar film, which is no other than 'The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2'. Its predecessor has somewhat disappointed everyone with its recession in North America and stagnant overseas grosses. However, any finale released in the past years, whether it's 'Harry Potter', 'Twilight' or 'The Dark Knight', has shown huge worldwide growth even if there was a decrease in North American returns. It is imperceivable for 'Mockingjay - Part 2' to drop further from its predecessor in North America, so only growth is considered as a possibility. However, $1 billion lamentably seems a bit too far away and without 3-D a movie can only go so far these days - exceptions not withstanding - especially in markets such as Brazil, China and South Korea. It will come frighteningly close though (NA: $420M, outside: $550M). Rounding out the top 5 is 'Furious 7'. The franchise has only been rising in the past years and the death of Paul Walker has, if anything, increased its popularity. 'Furious 7' also appears to be the final film of the series (although I struggle to believe that), a fact that will add even more to the film's event status. Effectively, what we will see is another healthy increase in worldwide returns, especially due the lack of competition around the time of the movie's release, early April (NA: $260M, outside: $620M). Animated films were absent from the top rankings last year but this year this is bound to change. Moving into the lower five, an animated film finally appears. 'The Minions' are a spin-off prequel to 'Despicable Me'. The franchise became immensely popular in summer 2013 with the release of the sequel which barely missed $1 billion. Not many animated spin-off prequels exist, but two that come to mind are 'Puss in Boots' and 'Penguins of Madagascar'. Both of them fell by a substantial percentage from the other films of the franchise. But that was mainly due to franchise fatigue and mediocre reception. 'Minions' comes off a highly successful mass-pleasing sequel and minions were admittedly its major selling point. Expect this one to drop from 'Despicable Me2', especially in North America and probably other English-speaking countries but not by much (NA: $290M, outside: $530M). Not very far behind, Pixar is returning this year with 'Inside Out'. The Pixar brand has been challenged somewhat in the past years but it is still highly successful commercially. Disney will obviously market this film heavily since last summer was the first in nine years without a Pixar film. Overseas though, as an original film, this could go either way: join Finding Nemo and Up in the higher ranks or stay with Wall-E and Brave lower down. Its interesting premise will hopefully favor the prior (NA: $280M, outside: $410M). Another Disney film, the fourth down the list, will be eighth this year: 'Tomorrowland: The World Beyond'. This is a live-action film directed by Brad Bird. From 'The Iron Giant' to 'The Incredibles' and 'Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol', Brad Bird has made impressive films, story-wise and action-wise, and this will probably not disappoint either. Prepare for a Mission Impossible 4-like gross since it is an original film, unlike 'Ghost Protocol', but has 3-D and a Memorial-Day weekend release date to compensate (NA: $220M, outside: $460M). Similarly to 'Inside Out', 'A Good Dinosaur' will definitely do well in North America but, as an original film, its overseas prospects are largely unpredictable (NA: $250M, outside: $360M). 'Mission Impossible 5' is coming off a very successful predecessor but, being released a week after 'The Force Awakens', this film isn't really in the most favorable position. In any case, franchise fatigue and Brad Bird not returning to direct further decrease the event status of this film so don't expect it to match 'Ghost Protocol' although China will definitely increase from the prior (NA: $165M, outside: $475M). Finally, Ant-Man has a chance of breaking the Top 10. Despite a troubled production, this is Marvel we're talking about and the lesson from pretty much every single year since 2011 is to not underestimate this studio. Nevertheless it will be released in mid-July, amidst a more crowded market than either 'Captain America: The Winter Soldier' or 'Guardians of the Galaxy'. This will inevitably have a slight inhibitory effect. Expect at least $500M worldwide and probably a lot more (NA: $225M, $410M). In a final analysis of an individual film, 'Jurassic World' definitely has a fanbase eager to watch this long-awaited unnecessary sequel. I question though whether enough hype will be built up to promote this film to event status similarly to 'The Force Awakens'. The trailer resembles 'Godzilla' in a way that could have a negative impact on general interest, especially since the latter was very badly received. On the other hand, the Chinese don't seem to care so much about quality, so overseas grosses will guarantee this isn't deemed a flop (NA: $180M, outside: $390M). Also hoping for a Top 20 and maybe even Top 10 finish are two female-fueled films, two fanboy films, three that appeal to both - including a comedy-, and another animated film: Cinderella ($450M+) Ted 2 ($430M+) Fifty Shades of Grey ($380M+) Fantastic Four ($370M+) Hotel Transylvania 2 ($350M+) Maze Runner 2 ($340M+) Insurgent ($320M+) Terminator ($300M+)

2015 WORLDWIDE GROSSES 2014 was a rather mediocre year. Although overall, business was satisfactory, many individual films failed to meet expectations. There were some surprises, both pleasant and disappointing but no insane outliers (apart from 'Guardians of the Galaxy'). If anything, we learnt not to underestimate Marvel but to expect negative reception to greatly influence well-established franchises (Spider-Man, Transformers, The Hunger Games). That is true only in North America though. I think I must finally note how important China is becoming: this booming market has seen many Hollywood productions gross more than in North America Its exponentially expanding screen capacity means that it is more vital than ever before for a film to succeed in China - look no further than Transformers 4 for proof. That being said, other traditionally strong markets must not be underestimated because China alone is not enough - an obvious example this year is Frozen in Japan. In 2015, there are many strong franchises and it will almost definitely be the biggest year ever in cinematic history. Let's cut to the point: 1. Avengers: Age of Ultron $1710 million 2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens $1120 million 3. Spectre $1050 million 4. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 $970 million 5. Furious 7 $880 million 6. The Minions $820 million 7. Inside Out $690 million 8. Tomorrowland $680 million 9. Mission Impossible 5 $640 million 10. Ant-Man $635 million 11. The Good Dinosaur $610 million 12. Jurassic World $570 million The Marvel Cinematic Universe is completely unprecedented, including the success of 'The Avengers'. No one can really tell if that film behaved like a super-sequel or an original film - probably a bit of both, boosted by extremely positive audience reception. It is thus difficult to predict the sequel's gross. I believe the closet comparison we have is 'The Hunger Games'. This built up massive hype prior to release despite not being a sequel and had an enormous opening weekend. Excellent word-of-mouth propelled it to over $40M. Its sequel was even more massive but only slightly more. Many are suggesting that 'The Avengers' also reached saturation levels so I cannot see 'Age of Ultron' earning a lot more. This is the case for North America but outside of it there's a different story. Booming markets including -you guessed it - China will expand greatly so a worldwide total ahead of the first one is guaranteed (NA: $630M, outside: $1080M). Speaking of cinematic universes, another one is vying for one of the top positions: 'Star Wars'. The hype is immense, as Disney can barely avoid secrets being spoiled and cannot keep up with the leakage of photos/footage (also a problem with 'Age of Ultron'). The prequels were very successful in their corresponding years and overseas expansion since the last one hit theaters ('Revenge of the Sith' in 2005) is definitely going to push 'The Force Awakens' higher than any other chapter. By how much no one can know but anything below $1 billion is already looking like a disappointment (NA: $380M, outside: $740M). The final film to reach $1 billion is 'Spectre'. After earning $1.1 billion, 'Skyfall' reassured that James Bond films remain extremely popular, even 50 years and 23 films later. 'Spectre' would need to drop 10% from its predecessor to elude the coveted billion-dollar mark which seems unlikely even if the film is not as well received (mainly due to China's expansion). I'll split the distance and predict $1050 million (NA: $275 million, outside: $775 million). Finally, there is a possibility of a fourth billion-dollar film, which is no other than 'The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2'. Its predecessor has somewhat disappointed everyone with its recession in North America and stagnant overseas grosses. However, any finale released in the past years, whether it's 'Harry Potter', 'Twilight' or 'The Dark Knight', has shown huge worldwide growth even if there was a decrease in North American returns. It is imperceivable for 'Mockingjay - Part 2' to drop further from its predecessor in North America, so only growth is considered as a possibility. However, $1 billion lamentably seems a bit too far away and without 3-D a movie can only go so far these days - exceptions not withstanding - especially in markets such as Brazil, China and South Korea. It will come frighteningly close though (NA: $420M, outside: $550M). Rounding out the top 5 is 'Furious 7'. The franchise has only been rising in the past years and the death of Paul Walker has, if anything, increased its popularity. 'Furious 7' also appears to be the final film of the series (although I struggle to believe that), a fact that will add even more to the film's event status. Effectively, what we will see is another healthy increase in worldwide returns, especially due the lack of competition around the time of the movie's release, early April (NA: $260M, outside: $620M). Animated films were absent from the top rankings last year but this year this is bound to change. Moving into the lower five, an animated film finally appears. 'The Minions' are a spin-off prequel to 'Despicable Me'. The franchise became immensely popular in summer 2013 with the release of the sequel which barely missed $1 billion. Not many animated spin-off prequels exist, but two that come to mind are 'Puss in Boots' and 'Penguins of Madagascar'. Both of them fell by a substantial percentage from the other films of the franchise. But that was mainly due to franchise fatigue and mediocre reception. 'Minions' comes off a highly successful mass-pleasing sequel and minions were admittedly its major selling point. Expect this one to drop from 'Despicable Me2', especially in North America and probably other English-speaking countries but not by much (NA: $290M, outside: $530M). Not very far behind, Pixar is returning this year with 'Inside Out'. The Pixar brand has been challenged somewhat in the past years but it is still highly successful commercially. Disney will obviously market this film heavily since last summer was the first in nine years without a Pixar film. Overseas though, as an original film, this could go either way: join Finding Nemo and Up in the higher ranks or stay with Wall-E and Brave lower down. Its interesting premise will hopefully favor the prior (NA: $280M, outside: $410M). Another Disney film, the fourth down the list, will be eighth this year: 'Tomorrowland: The World Beyond'. This is a live-action film directed by Brad Bird. From 'The Iron Giant' to 'The Incredibles' and 'Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol', Brad Bird has made impressive films, story-wise and action-wise, and this will probably not disappoint either. Prepare for a Mission Impossible 4-like gross since it is an original film, unlike 'Ghost Protocol', but has 3-D and a Memorial-Day weekend release date to compensate (NA: $220M, outside: $460M). Similarly to 'Inside Out', 'A Good Dinosaur' will definitely do well in North America but, as an original film, its overseas prospects are largely unpredictable (NA: $250M, outside: $360M). 'Mission Impossible 5' is coming off a very successful predecessor but, being released a week after 'The Force Awakens', this film isn't really in the most favorable position. In any case, franchise fatigue and Brad Bird not returning to direct further decrease the event status of this film so don't expect it to match 'Ghost Protocol' although China will definitely increase from the prior (NA: $165M, outside: $475M). Finally, Ant-Man has a chance of breaking the Top 10. Despite a troubled production, this is Marvel we're talking about and the lesson from pretty much every single year since 2011 is to not underestimate this studio. Nevertheless it will be released in mid-July, amidst a more crowded market than either 'Captain America: The Winter Soldier' or 'Guardians of the Galaxy'. This will inevitably have a slight inhibitory effect. Expect at least $500M worldwide and probably a lot more (NA: $225M, $410M). In a final analysis of an individual film, 'Jurassic World' definitely has a fanbase eager to watch this long-awaited unnecessary sequel. I question though whether enough hype will be built up to promote this film to event status similarly to 'The Force Awakens'. The trailer resembles 'Godzilla' in a way that could have a negative impact on general interest, especially since the latter was very badly received. On the other hand, the Chinese don't seem to care so much about quality, so overseas grosses will guarantee this isn't deemed a flop (NA: $180M, outside: $390M). Also hoping for a Top 20 and maybe even Top 10 finish are two female-fueled films, two fanboy films, three that appeal to both - including a comedy-, and another animated film: Cinderella ($450M+) Ted 2 ($430M+) Fifty Shades of Grey ($380M+) Fantastic Four ($370M+) Hotel Transylvania 2 ($350M+) Maze Runner 2 ($340M+) Insurgent ($320M+) Terminator ($300M+)

Why do u say they're down? They earned 44K yesterday.

I've reached my quota for the number of likes (why on Earth is there such a limitation?!?). Just wanted you to know I would've liked all of your posts. Keep updating with daily numbers. Thanks and Merry Christmas.

So will the 2014 box office reach $5B or not?

Big Hero 6's weekend total was $12.6M, according to actuals provided by Deadline. The overseas tally is $83M. http://deadline.com/2014/12/international-box-office-hobbit-five-armies-big-hero-6-pk-gone-with-the-bullets-results-1201332492/

By its first Sunday at the North American box office, Pirates of the Carribean 4 had earned $90.2M in NA and $260.4M in other countries. I know it's not an apples-to-apples comparison but I wanted to mention it anyway because of the similarity.

Most Hollywood films get what they deserve in Japan, unlike the huge amounts of money they unworthily earn elsewhere.

The film just crossed $350M ONA. Add $290 from NA and we have $640M. It might get to $370M from existing markets (due to holiday bump). Comparison with Catching Fire and Deahtly Hallows - Part 1 suggest it will reach $335M in NA. Total: $705M Add in $30M from China: $735M. Somewhere between Cap 2 and Days of Future Past in worldwide grosses for 2014.

I agree it won't be impressive but the holidays will help the total go higher than these numbers suggest.

Japan could be doing $60-70M. Tangled's $390M ONA total is looking more and more reachable every week.

At least this thread has been revived after Frozen died down in July.

This could surpass Frozen I guess

Do the have Christmas/New Year holidays now in China, will that help GWTB have a bigger total-to-opening ratio?

It is a bad, unfair, arbitrary, yet necessary, compromise.

From here: https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice

Actually, now that I think about it, I did make a mistake. We can't assume it will have the same legs as ROTK. So actually $250M in NA is at doubt, although possible. I still think that it can earn $750M overseas, but we'll find out from this weekend's numbers. By Sunday, it will be possible to make a more accurate prediction.

Ok everyone, BOTFA just made $24.4M on Wednesday. If it follows the trajectory of 'Return of the King' (which also opened on Wed, Dec 17 and was the finale of its series), 'Battle of the Five Armies' will make $267M. That means it needs $733M to cross $1 billion. This is pretty much guaranteed given the magnitude of its overseas debut last weekend. The question remains whether it can also surpass Transformers worlwide which I really want to happen just to make Michael Bay cry. Fingers crossed.