Quigley

I agree with your point but we're talking about a possible total around $80M. They definitely wanted it to cross $100M.

Why do you even care about Deadline cumes? They are always wrong. Just use the daily numbers.

Should the estimate for MJ1 hold, I believe it is now safe-r to say that it will cross $300M in North America. See comaprison with Deathly Hallows - Part 1 here: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=katnisspotter.htm

Based on comparison with 9 other animated films that played during Thanksgiving (Bolt, Happy Feet, Frozen, Tangled, Wreck-It Ralph, The Muppets, Rise of the Guardians, Megamind and Madagascar 2), Penguins will earn $36-37M over 5 days. That is higher than the $32.3M 5-day opening of Rise of the Guardians. However, that film was Christmas-themed which allowed it to have a very impressive post-Thanksgiving weekend hold (-43%) and very small decreases in the weekends leading to the Christams holidays (no bigger drops than -31%). Guardians made $103M in total. Penguins had a lower CinemaScore (A- vs A) and is a prequel so it will definitely be more front-loaded. I don't see how it could cross $100M. Also, if we compare it to The Muppets, another franchise-based film that opened over Thanskgiving to $41.5M, Penguins could earn less than $80M by the end of its run.

Among the films mentioned above, the worst Wednesday-to-Thursday drop was posted by Tangled (-32%). Penguins was even worse, falling 37%. It may even struggle to reach $35M by Sunday.

This is how much Penguins of Madagscar will earn on its 5-day weekend if it follows the trajectory of the films below (based on pre-Thanskgiving Wednesday gross): Bolt ~$45M Rise of the Guardians ~$42M Happy Feet ~$42M The Muppets ~$40M Frozen ~$38M Tangled ~$36M Given that it's non-original, it will probs be more front-loaded, so $40M is a best-case scenario.

Significant increase of screen share for Interstellar compared to estimates - it will drop only 33%. Not bad.

So how much did Interstellar drop?

But Maleficent trailers had more action. Cinderella just looks like the classical fairytale. Men will not be intrigued.

So what is your OS prediction?

Any particular reason for these inflated numbers? Apart from the social media traction in China, all arguments I read are "I liked the trailer so the film will do well"...

Hobbit 3 will most likely top $100 million.

Totes hyped for BH6. Thanksgiving earnings will be massive. Penguins is in danger. Similar fate to Rise of the Guardians is likely (and, for personal satisfaction, desirable).

We'll see...

It is possible that it stays ahead. They are talking about 10% ahead in the same markets at the same point of its run within each market. So it is accurate. Interstellar decreased more than last weekend in most markets. In addition, Penguins and Horrible Bosses 2 is being released everywhere. Of course, there is no problem with competition, just screen-count decrease. I think part of my doubts is also that the decreases in North America have been quite bigger than Inception or Gravity. I mean, last weekend it was 14% ahead of Inception. Now it's only 10% ahead. Of course this is not bad. But it could continue having bigger decreases, in which case at some point Inception may catch up. For exapmle, Inception played for 9 weekends in China and had very small decreases. Inception will only play for four probably. We'll see. Currently, anything could happen but even $500M OS would be a massive success.

Overseas? Worldwide?

I was serious. I don't get if you're serious though. Godzilla made about $80M and JP 3D made about $60M. How does that guarantee $150M for JW in China??

Can't describe how unoriginal this film is. The only mildly interesting featute of the film is Chris Pratt. It is annoyingly similar to Godzilla which was also made by Legendary Pictures (unsurprisingly). Overall, a gross similar to Godzilla would not surprise me but I think audiences learnt their lesson from last year. It didn't help that Godzilla had bad reception so I believe this will gross less - especially in North America. Prediction: $140M in NA, $240M elsewhere (only because of China).

I think more like $400m by Sunday night. Overall, ~$500m total, maybe a bit more. $700m WW seems like a longshot.

Fingers crossed Subers will finally twitch and update Frozen's ONA total.

3-day wknd Mj1 47m HB2 35m PoM 29m BH6 18m Isr 13m

Oh my days, it could possibly fall behind Maleficent worlwide! What a crazy world we live in. Can I go somewhere else?

The problem with most countries is that the exchange rate is in favour of the dollar this year compared to last year: USD-to-EUR was 1:0.74 last year. This year it is 1:0.8 USD-to-RUS ROUBLE was 1:33 last year. This year it is 1:46. USD-to-BRZ REAL was 1:2.31 last year. This year it is 1:2.51. The British Pound and Mexican Peso remain relatively unchanged. So MJ1 actually did a lot better in local currency than the dollar values indicate.

It's from Deadline. By the way, I don't suppose your user name is your real name, right?

ScreenDaily usually reports grosses as of Wednesday if the article is published Friday morning.