Yeah, but when was the last time we had a heavily adult driven blockbuster, aside from Gravity? My point is, a 3x multi is good for a normal blockbuster (say TF, POTC etc), but not for a movie that skews so much older. I see it making a 4x. Well, we'll just have to wait and see.
I agree about worst case, but what's up with that best case? It's a movie that skews older (a LOT): 75% over the age of 25. Isn't that supposed to assure good legs in most cases? That is around a 3.2x muliplier, hardly impressive for such a movie.
That means you have it locked for 1.25B OS? That's hardly a lock. In fact, I don't even think it's likely to go that high. That would be 350M+ over it's original run. 150M at max will come from China. That still 200M short. You're banking on massive increases everywhere and I don't see that happening. Europe will increase, but not by much. Let's say 50-55M or so. LA and Asia without China must bring in 150M over TA 1's run in those territories, and that is A LOT.
It had 11.5M views on youtube. That shows an ok degree of anticipation. And OS it resembles FF, it will do good.
They can start previews at 6 and still won't get 100M OD, let alone 115M..
For some reason, I see people excluding Kung Fu Panda 3. I'm by no means a fan (haven't seen the first 2), but it will make around 300M just from China alone. Even if it falls to around 100M in the US (and I guess it will do a bit more than that), there is no way it does under 750M WW.
Actually, RT is ALWAYS shit. I'll never understand why people give a damn about the opinion of a bunch of pretentious... Hmmm... gotta keep it PG13 right?