WrathOfHan

I'm not writing off Anatomy of a Fall yet because it's Neon's #1, but not being the international submission means less voters will prioritize it.

I remain pessimistic about SAG resuming talks anytime soon. If WGA is resolved tonight, that's sooner than I would've anticipated from talks resuming. One step at a time.

It's a sweep year.

If 2/3 of Giamatti, Payne, or Editing happen, I can buy Randolph winning, but I'm not predicting nominations for those three at the moment. A Sessa nomination would convince me more on Randolph than Giamatti would tbh.

Lily's going lead: https://variety.com/2023/film/awards/lily-gladstone-lead-actress-killers-of-the-flower-moon-oscars-1235728258/ Congrats Emily Blunt?

Post-fests: 1. Oppenheimer 2. Poor Things 3. Killers of the Flower Moon 4. Barbie 5. The Holdovers 6. The Zone of Interest 7. American Fiction 8. Anatomy of a Fall 9. Maestro 10. Past Lives 11. The Boy and the Heron 12. May December 13. All of Us Strangers 14. Napoleon 15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse The first four are locks. I feel good about 5-7 but have some reservations (Zone's only noms could be below the line + International while Holdovers and American Fiction may max out at three noms for Pic/One Acting/Screenplay). Anatomy has felt under the radar at its fall festivals; I'm not concerned about it missing Picture yet since there aren't many alternatives. Past Lives needs strong critics support at the big organizations to stay alive for industry voters. If it doesn't win original screenplay at most groups, I would drop it from Picture. I have Maestro as this year's nominee that misses both Director and Screenplay.

When Nolan and Lanthimos have career best reviews for their films, I don't see Scorsese winning for something that doesn't crack the top 10 of his filmography depending who you ask. It's a similar narrative to The Fabelmans and Spielberg warranting a "legacy" win when the modern Academy very rarely does that anymore. Lily Gladstone is almost guaranteed to win which is more than most contenders hope for.

A few counterpoints: 1. The AMPAS voter markup is much more diverse than it was ten years ago with more international voters now. 2. Frozen was a global phenomenon that (unadjusted) made nearly double of ATV's worldwide gross and almost triple its international gross. 3. Frozen marked the first win for WDAS at a time when Pixar was still viewed as Disney's more prestigious animation division. 4. Aside from a one week qualifying run, The Wind Rises was not released domestically until a few weeks before the Oscars ceremony happened. That won't be the case with The Boy and the Heron which opens well in advance of nomination voting.

Miyazaki can make a movie about coming to terms with his life and legacy and not have it be his final film.

The Boy and the Heron debuts at 89 on Metacritic, above Spider-Verse. If this wins TIFF People's Choice, watch out.

@Blankments @Eric McCall 8x: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Shazam! Fury of the Gods, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Transformers: Rise of the Beasts, Elemental, Barbie, Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning Part One) 7x: Gran Turismo (Fast X, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Transformers: Rise of the Beasts, Elemental, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem) 5x: Strays (Cocaine Bear, Beau Is Afraid, Fast X, No Hard Feelings, Oppenheimer Round Two) 4x: Blue Beetle (Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Transformers: Rise of the Beasts, Barbie, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem) 3x: The Creator (Transformers: Rise of the Beasts, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Oppenheimer) Dune: Part Two (Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Oppenheimer) Five Nights at Freddy's (Fast X, Gran Turismo, Bottoms) Killers of the Flower Moon (Oppenheimer, Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning Part One, Gran Turismo) The Last Voyage of the Demeter (Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Oppenheimer, Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning Part One) The Marvels (Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Bottoms) 2x: Challengers (No Hard Feelings, Barbie) Drive-Away Dolls (Asteroid City, No Hard Feelings) Dumb Money (Gran Turismo, Bottoms) The Equalizer 3 (Oppenheimer Round Two, Gran Turismo) Haunted Mansion (Barbie, Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning Part One) A Haunting in Venice (Past Lives, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny) Meg 2: The Trench (No Hard Feelings, Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning Part One) Migration (The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Barbie) My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 (Asteroid City, Barbie) Oldboy Re-release (Past Lives, Asteroid City) Trolls: Band Together (The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem) Wish (Elemental, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem) 1x: Bob Marley: One Love (Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning Part One) Camp Hideout (Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem) The Color Purple (Barbie) Dicks: The Musical (Bottoms) Elio (Elemental) The Exorcist: Believer (Oppenheimer) Expend4bles (Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning Part One) Freelance (Gran Turismo) The Holdovers (Oppenheimer) Landscape with Invisible Hand (Asteroid City) Napoleon (Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning Part One) The Nun II (Gran Turismo) On Fire (Gran Turismo) Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie (Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem) Problemista (Past Lives) Self Reliance (Bottoms) Strange Way of Life (Bottoms) White Bird (Elemental)

I mean Challengers at least could have utilized the US Open for marketing.

The Poor Things doubting never made much sense to me. In a world where Everything Everywhere won 7 Oscars, a graphic sex comedy from Yorgos Lanthimos should not be a hard sell for the 2023 AMPAS markup. Boatload of nominations incoming. BAFTA will probably be big on Strangers. Curious how it fares at the guilds. Holdovers could be a repeat of Manchester by the Sea's nominations. Probably only win-contentious in Screenplay though. Saltburn's done. There's not a world this gets more than 1-2 nominations when almost everyone is dogging on the screenplay. Air should be Amazon's #1 now.

The Equalizer movies always make consistent money. It would be nice to see it hit 40M for the 4 day.

I mean she got in for that flop Nine with only a Golden Globe nom and no SAG/BAFTA. Granted, that was the year after she won her Oscar, but if she manages to get into SAG here she probably has a decent shot at a nomination.

Because the acting branch loves Cruz and Supporting Actress is pretty open for nominations at the moment. Gladstone and Blunt are the only two I'd call safe right now.

Ferrari's not happening aside from Cruz and maybe a tech or two. Cross that one off the list.

Second week sales are nowhere near opening weekend. It looks like it's keeping the first Dolby show from KOTFM at most theaters which sounds about right given both of their runtimes.

Its Joever

Keep in mind Exorcist is still opening on Friday the 13th in October. Better to keep it there than push it up a week for more PLF showtimes (which it will still have on OW). Barbie already showed you can open big with reduced PLF.

The last two Halloween films were terrible sellers in IMAX/Dolby despite large openings. It doesn't make sense to give Exorcist more than 1-2 shows per screen with Eras now.

Managed to get IMAX tickets. I'm sure more PLF will be added; Exorcist won't be selling this much

Also gonna do pre-festival predictions in the main categories: Picture: 1. Oppenheimer 2. Killers of the Flower Moon 3. Barbie 4. Anatomy of a Fall 5. Past Lives 6. The Holdovers 7. Poor Things 8. The Zone of Interest 9. Saltburn 10. The Killer Alt: Maestro Director: 1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer 2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon 3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie 4. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall 5. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things Alt: Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest Actor: 1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer 2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon 3. Colman Domingo, Rustin 4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers 5. Michael Fassbender, The Killer Alt: Bradley Cooper, Maestro Actress: 1. Margot Robbie, Barbie 2. Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall 3. Emma Stone, Poor Things 4. Greta Lee, Past Lives 5. Natalie Portman, May December Alt: Carey Mulligan, Maestro Supporting Actor: 1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer 2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie 3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon 4. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things 5. Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers Alt: Matt Damon, Oppenheimer Supporting Actress: 1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon 2. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer 3. Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers 4. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn 5. Julianne Moore, May December Alt: Viola Davis, Air Adapted Screenplay: 1. Barbie 2. Oppenheimer 3. Killers of the Flower Moon 4. Poor Things 5. The Killer Alt: The Zone of Interest Original Screenplay: 1. Anatomy of a Fall 2. Past Lives 3. The Holdovers 4. Saltburn 5. Air Alt: The Boy and the Heron

Yeah. Aside from The Boy and the Heron (which is TIFF opening night anyways), we're going to know the reception of all the remaining big fall movies by Tuesday. It's going to be hard for anything to stop Oppenheimer's narrative at this point.