Aristis

SW vs SW: WE SW7 SW8 SW9 1st 2.705 --- 2.705 2.189 --- 2.189 1.887 --- 1.887 2nd 1.966 -27% 5.767 943 -57% 3.453 1.472 -22% 3.893 3rd 1.542 -22% 8.345 1.315 39% 5.341 850 -42% 5.141 4th 627 -59% 9.140 770 -41% 6.444 284 -67% 5.502 5th 382 -39% 9.611 222 -71% 6.725 6th 245 -36% 9.927 143 -36% 6.902 7th 164 -33% 10.128 75 -48% 7.001 10,315M 7,077M 6,000M Following SW8 after the end of holidays SW9 wouldn't even reach 6M (~5,95M) so this could be a long way... Frozen vs Frozen: WE Frozen 1 Frozen 2 1st 776 --- 954 1.980 --- 1.980 2nd 656 -15% 1.697 1.347 -32% 3.485 3rd 619 -6% 2.434 866 -36% 4.439 4th 752 21% 3.471 558 -36% 5.077 5th 646 -14% 4.384 475 -15% 5.626 6th 151 -77% 4.565 583 23% 6.440 7th 124 -18% 4.698 405 -31% 7.047 8th 95 -23% 4.802 107 -74% 7.170 5,152M 7,500M It needs some good legs to get to 7,5M from here. F2 is already the 2nd biggest movie of the year so there's not really another milestone to reach. TOP10 2019: 1 10.007.043 The Lion King 2 7.170.115 Frozen 2 3 6.942.474 Avengers - Endgame 4 6.711.618 Serial Bad Wedding 2 5 5.573.419 Joker 6 5.501.791 Star Wars 9 7 4.596.424 Toy Story 4 8 3.374.568 Captain Marvel 9 3.367.445 HTTYD3 10 3.226.105 Spider-Man - Far From Home TLK still is a bit speculative (JP-BO has it at 9,75M). SW9 will pass Joker for 5th and J2 could enter the TOP10 later. And with the year being over, the TOP10 OW 2019: 1 2.844.886 Avengers: EG (6th biggest ever) 2 2.559.370 The Lion King (10th biggest ever) 3 1.979.782 Frozen 2 4 1.886.610 Star Wars 9 5 1.852.556 Serial Bad Wedding 6 1.357.118 Joker 7 1.125.726 Captain Marvel 8 1.109.050 Spider-Man: FFH 9 1.100.058 Toy Story 4 10 1.056.143 Little white lies http://www.insidekino.de/BO/F2019.htm

1st Trend: #1 SW9 285k (-53%) 4,79M #2 Knives Out 195k (-15%/-22% i.P.) 500k #3 Frozen2 160k (-55%) 6,275M - biggest movie since SW7 (9,06M) #4 Jumanji2 125k (-63%) 2,04M - passing J1 (2,01M) this WE #5 Kaninchen 100k (-38%) 625k #6 Zauberhafte Schwestern 110k (i.P)

Thursday numbers: Holidays are over so there are huge drops, for the WE they are much lower: #1 SW9 30k (-79%) #2 Knives Out 20k (-50%) #3 Jumanji2 12,5k (-82%) #4 Kaninchen 10,6k (?) #5 Frozen2 9,5k (-88%) #6 Geheimnis 7,5k (-75%)

SW vs SW: Frozen vs Frozen:

25.12.2019 - 29.12.2019 1 1.471.948 -22% 3.892.658 2 Star Wars 9 2 582.736 +23% 6.439.767 6 Frozen 2 3 455.664 +38% 2.253.313 4 Jumanji 2 4 314.081 --- 314.081 1 Spies in Disguise 5 246.855 --- 246.855 1 Rendez-vous Chez Les Malawas 6 157.529 +1% 928.001 4 Addams Family 7 137.801 +9% 524.284 3 Docteur? 8 123.107 --- 123.107 1 La Verite 9 116.026 +8% 1.663.593 6 Les Miserables 10 104.575 --- 104.575 1 3 Engel für Charlie 1.1.2020 - 05.01.2020 1 849.695 -42% 5.140.910 3 Star Wars 9 2 404.694 -31% 7.047.322 7 Frozen 2 3 384.284 -16% 2.798.180 5 Jumanji 2 4 296.679 -6% 739.244 2 Spies in Disguise 5 232.657 --- 232.657 1 Les Vetos 6 211.152 --- 211.152 1 Little Women 7 157.287 -36% 491.931 2 Rendez-vous Chez Les Malawas 8 123.508 -22% 1.114.039 5 Addams Family 9 117.252 --- 117.252 1 Play 10 89.682 --- 89.682 1 21 Bridges http://www.insidekino.de/BO/F2020.htm

SW vs SW: Frozen vs Frozen: And the new one, Jumanji vs Jumanji:

2nd Trend: #1 SW9 625k (-43%) 4,38M #2 F2 350k (-28%) 6,035M *it needs only 10k more the have the 10th biggest 7th WE ever... #3 J2 320k (-21%) 1,83M #4 Knives Out 220k #5 Kaninchen 145k (-21%/-37% i.P.) #6 Geheimnis 140k (-8%) #7 Spies 120k (+2%/-18% i.P.) SW9 crossed 4M admissions yesterday as the 6th movie of the year.

Thursday numbers: #1 SW9 145k (-27%) €1,6M /$1,78M #2 F2 80k (-0%) €630k / $700k #3 J2 70k (-12%) €650k / $725kk #4 Knives Out 40k // €355k / $395k #5 Geheimnis 30k (probably around -0%) €255k / $285k #6 Kaninchen ~30k (~-12%) The Thursday drops are awesome - much better than the projected WE numbers. I hope InsideKino is pessimistic.

That 7,5M is just the floor. F2 will probably end a bit higher than that (>7,5M, <8M). But it'll have only one good drop (to get to around 7,05M) and than drop 70%+ like F1. It remains to be seen what it'll be able to do after that. Though, as I said some time ago, I'm always cautious so yeah, it'll likely end above that.

SW vs SW: WE SW7 SW8 SW9 1st 2.139 2.139 1.627 1.627 1.388 1.710 2nd 1.161 -46% 4.431 721 -56% 2.838 1.092 -21% 3.384 3rd 848 -27% 6.566 849 18% 4.393 4th 583 -31% 7.630 467 -45% 5.211 5th 324 -44% 8.094 202 -57% 5.503 6th 204 -37% 8.380 110 -46% 5.663 7th 145 -29% 8.582 70 -36% 5.761 8th 91 -37% 8.719 42 -40% 5.822 9th 66 -27% 8.819 24 -43% 5.857 10th 39 -41% 8.874 11 -54% 5.877 9,060M 5,906M 5,500M F1 vs F2: WE Frozen1 Frozen2 1st 572 654 1.430 1.635 2nd 577 1% 1.355 941 -34% 2.822 3rd 476 -18% 1.952 708 -25% 3.704 4th 433 -9% 2.499 468 -34% 4.307 5th 540 25% 3.242 393 -16% 4.808 6th 402 -26% 3.838 485 23% 5.505 7th 158 -61% 4.091 8th 107 -32% 4.217 9th 81 -24% 4.311 10th 89 10% 4.412 4.767M 6,500M And again more detailed as Spoiler: Und ich wünsche auch allen ein frohes neues Jahr, happy new year to everyone

SW vs SW: WE SW7 SW8 SW9 1st 2.705 --- 2.705 2.189 --- 2.189 1.887 --- 1.887 2nd 1.966 -27% 5.767 943 -57% 3.453 1.472 -22% 3.893 3rd 1.542 -22% 8.345 1.315 39% 5.341 4th 627 -59% 9.140 770 -41% 6.444 5th 382 -39% 9.611 222 -71% 6.725 6th 245 -36% 9.927 143 -36% 6.902 7th 164 -33% 10.128 75 -48% 7.001 10,315M 7,077M 6,500M F1 vs F2: WE Frozen 1 Frozen 2 1st 776 --- 954 1.980 --- 1.980 2nd 656 -15% 1.697 1.347 -32% 3.485 3rd 619 -6% 2.434 866 -36% 4.439 4th 752 21% 3.471 558 -36% 5.077 5th 646 -14% 4.384 475 -15% 5.626 6th 151 -77% 4.565 583 23% 6.440 7th 124 -18% 4.698 8th 95 -23% 4.802 5,152M 7,500M

Monday numbers: #1 SW9 1,08M (-22%/-37%) 3,37M - biggest 2nd WE of the year #2 Frozen 2 480k (+22%) 5,5M - fifth biggest 6th WE ever, biggest 6th WE of the year #4 Jumanji 2 400k (+32%) 1,35M - J1 299k / 1,27M #5 Kaninchen 180k (4-day), 215k (5-day) #6 Geheimnis 155k (+18%) 4,57M - biggest 9th WE of the year #7 Spies in Disguise 116k (4-day),135k (5-day) #8 Cats 81k (4-day), 105k (5-day)

SW Disney Trilogy: WE SW7 SW8 SW9 1st 2.139 2.139 1.627 1.627 1.388 1.710 2nd 1.161 -46% 4.431 721 -56% 2.838 3rd 848 -27% 6.566 849 18% 4.393 4th 583 -31% 7.630 467 -45% 5.211 5th 324 -44% 8.094 202 -57% 5.503 6th 204 -37% 8.380 110 -46% 5.663 7th 145 -29% 8.582 70 -36% 5.761 8th 91 -37% 8.719 42 -40% 5.822 9th 66 -27% 8.819 24 -43% 5.857 10th 39 -41% 8.874 11 -54% 5.877 9,060M 5,906M 5,500M Frozen: WE Frozen1 Frozen2 1st 572 654 1.430 1.635 2nd 577 1% 1.355 941 -34% 2.822 3rd 476 -18% 1.952 708 -25% 3.704 4th 433 -9% 2.499 468 -34% 4.307 5th 540 25% 3.242 393 -16% 4.808 6th 402 -26% 3.838 7th 158 -61% 4.091 8th 107 -32% 4.217 9th 81 -24% 4.311 10th 89 10% 4.412 4.767M 6.000M

I don't really know what I did there, but it seems that indeed that he got confused by his own currency mistake

According to estimates the total after Sun was $40,5M and 5,626M admissions. Might go up but for now it is.

That'll probably depend on the legs after holiday - it had to have legs close to its predecessor over the christmas holidays though. Running like that one (F1's 3rd WE would be the counterpart to F2's 5th) it would add close to 2,1M for 7,7M admissions. F2 is likely not to hold as good as that though. I would still expect 7M to 7,25M admissions ($50M to $52M).

SW9 with a disappointing OW: WE SW7 SW8 SW9 1st 2.705 --- 2.705 2.189 --- 2.189 1.887 --- 1.887 2nd 1.966 -27% 5.767 943 -57% 3.453 3rd 1.542 -22% 8.345 1.315 39% 5.341 4th 627 -59% 9.140 770 -41% 6.444 5th 382 -39% 9.611 222 -71% 6.725 6th 245 -36% 9.927 143 -36% 6.902 7th 164 -33% 10.128 75 -48% 7.001 000000 000000 000000 10,315M 000000 000000 7,077M 000000 000000 6,500M F2 with its first small drop: WE Frozen 1 Frozen 2 1st 776 --- 954 1.980 --- 1.980 2nd 656 -15% 1.697 1.347 -32% 3.485 3rd 619 -6% 2.434 866 -36% 4.439 4th 752 21% 3.471 558 -36% 5.077 5th 646 -14% 4.384 475 -15% 5.626 6th 151 -77% 4.565 7th 124 -18% 4.698 8th 95 -23% 4.802 000000 000000 000000 5,152M 000000 000000 7,000M

This WE was already a little inflated by holidays so F2 won't increase by that much next WE. 425k (+8% from current estimate) would already be great I'd say. If it stayed flat that'd be the 9th highest 6th WE ever and therefore it's in awesome territory for the WE no matter if it increases or not. Atm I don't think 7M will happen, 6,25M to 6,5M look good though. As for SW9, 1M could be possible. Since SW movies are notoriously it could drop a bit higher though... Should do at least 900k (-35%) I'd say.

It has made that up to Thursday: Wed 1,184M / 1,184M total Thu 645k (-45%) 1,829M total If that's not what you meant I'm confused now

Yeah, SW9 seems extremely optimistic (especially the upper range). I trust in his knowledge though that it's at least possible. As for F2, I would expect it to increase with the 2nd Trend, too. Still, I think 350k would be enough to secure 6M+. It'd be just 400k behind Minions at the same point that got to 6,95M and has christmas holiday beginning now.

Yes, you posted the cumulative for Thursday That test is a great tool, especially for the filmmakers themselves to think about there movies from another perspective. But out of context it's confusing sometimes as it has errors when there's just a man and a woman or two men starring in a movie (like the lighthouse that obviously can't have two females talking about anything than a man).

1st Trend: #1 TROS 1,38M (4-day), 1,7M (5day) - MarkG thinks it could go higher than that (he says it could be as high as 2,2M 5-day) but until tomorow this lower estimate seems like the safer choice... #2 Frozen2 350k (-25%) 4,77M - so it might pass its predecessor this WE #3 Jumanji 250k (-35%/-38%) 735k #4 Geheimnis 110k (-24%) 4,34M #5 Last Christmas 70k (-5%) 780k

Yes it opened on Wed so Thu is deflated. That's actually better than I thought for Thursday. RO IM would result in 1,1M 4-day (and with a probable 300k+ OD in 1,4M+ 5-day). As this one opened one day earlier it should be better than that... But those other numbers are awesome! It seems only Hamburg was in holiday yesterday and today yet so the numbers shouldn't be inflated, at least too much.

Yeah, it's an important drop but I think you've written it like 5 times today alone so maybe Fullbuster isn't too far off To me it seems you are expecting a really big drop as the WOM is bad. But the 2nd WE will probably be inflated by holidays and therefore the drop won't be as telling as that (if SW9 drops big regardless it'll tell much though).

You're really obsessed with 2nd WE hold I don't think it will be too bad actually - christmas eve on Tuesday seems like good position for BO.