Aristis

Well, the Joker biopic did And this one sentence says it all: You think Joker is a normal CBM and therefore just another to get there. Others think it isn't. And that is the point why this whole discussion became useless the moment all arguments were written down (as all people are telling the same now over and over again). And about the fanboy discussion: Surely there might be some fanboys in this discussion but there were enough arguments to prove that not everyboy is biased to the point of bigotry. Of course preferences might be part of the decission of impressiveness but in the end (as it was said) it's just opinions and those opinions (as I said) became useless. So we might just end the discussion if there aren't any new things to say and not repeat the same over and over again, and just go back to numbers...

If you think audiences aren't awaiting effects, explosions and stuff look again into the 1B+ grossers. Of course it's not just about that and a movie can gross less than that even than. But please tell me how many of the 1B+ movies have this few action scenes - I mean, it's just Jokers 3rd part really. The movie is a charakter study, a Joker biopic and therefore very different even from the Nolan Batman Trilogy. To the last part of the first post and this one: Sometimes it's better to not know much about BO to make a better prediction as you don't know the natural borders (and there are many for Joker). It's like the prediction of Endgame - in Germany it blew past most predictions of German BO followers just because we know it and know what is normal. I could have said "Endgame makes $3B WW". That doesn't really mean I'm a great analyst and all others are bad. Some predictions are just lucky cause sometimes BO is unpredictable and that is what makes following it great.

BvS showed the clash of the (arguably) two biggest Superheros of all time, yet it did just $870M (you can look at SSquad too). This argument of saying "the charakter is well known though" is therefore total nonsense... Additionally there are all those points made by many before and maybe many after: R-rated, arthousy/charakter study, not much action... I won't say it's the most impressive run of the year (which it may be), the decade (which it could be too) or of all time (which it clearly isn't) though.

Monday numbers: There weren't much changes over the WE frame Geheimnis 580k (-15%) 2,74M - biggest 3rd WE of the year, topping TLK 565k Joker 142,5k (-29%) 3,7M Last Christmas 130k (160k i.P.) Le Mans 66 / FvF 95k (110k i.P.) Recep Ivedik 6 92,5k (-37%) 272,5k Zombieland 2 90k (-22%/-40%) 272,5k Maleficent 2 60k (-28%) 980k Addams Family 60k (-14%) 440k The Top10 are down 28% compared to one year ago (FB2 opens to 995k). I hope F2 this week changes that...

1st Trend: Geheimnis 575k (-16%) 2,74M - biggest 3rd WE of the year topping TLK 565k Last Christmas 150k Joker 140k (-30%) 3,69M Le Mans 66 105k Zombieland 2 95k (-18%/-37%) 275k Recep Ivedik 6 75k (-49%) 255k

Thursday actuals: Geheimnis 62k // €550k / $605k (-19%) Joker 17k // €150k / $165k (-35%) Last Christmas 13,5k // €110k / $120k Le Mans 66 11k // €105k / $115k

The Thursday estimates from InsideKino see another great drop for the local Geheimnis (66k, -21% from LW estimates) and again a rather mediocre hold for Joker (16k, -38% from LW estimates). Combined with a bit better numbers from the other report Geheimnis should get to 60k+ (-20% from LW Thursday actual) and maybe 550k WE (applying same IM as LW). Joker would indeed reach around 16k and 125k WE. As for Geheimnis that would be great, it just needs 565k+ for the best 3rd WE of the year. But I hope Joker might do more than that...

2nd Trend: Geheimnis 725k (-22%/-30%) Joker 225k (-43%) Zombieland2 150k Maleficent2 90k (-49%) Addams Family 70k (-52%) Terminator 55k (-53%)

That's what I wrote in the first post - I fear the predicted IM may be too optimistic. We will see tomorow.

As said, 5M won't happen. But if it really reaches 250k this WE my hope for €40M+ might still be alive (it would need 4,3M+ for that to happen). But for now I would stay with the InsideKino prediction of 4M.

At the moment I can't really see this happening as it would be a huge IM for a movie like Joker. But MarkG is great in predicting so maybe it really is possible... And if that hold happens for Geheimnis we might get some more than just 4M admissions there.

With Octobre record you mean the biggest movie opening in October? Cause there are quite some bigger ones. And the 16 record might be Matrix 4,78M

Maleficent does great indeed! She's coming for the 5th biggest of the Disney LA (all numbers in Mio): OD OW OWeek Total Multipler TLK 0,630 2,559 3,253 9,750 x3,81 2019 Alice 0,252 1,418 1,600 4,537 x3,20 2010 TJB 0,278 1,090 1,303 3,720 x3,41 2016 BATB 0,269 1,143 1,282 3,568 x3,12 2017 Maleficent2 0,066 0,549 0,786 3,000+* x5,47 2019 Aladdin 0,078 0,471 0,563 2,510 x5,33 2019 Dumbo 0,085 0,470 0,551 2,392 x5,09 2019 Maleficent 0,086 0,548 0,628 2,047 x3,74 2014 Cinderella 0,086 0,573 0,636 1,722 x3,01 2015 OZ 0,124 0,633 0,788 1,590 x2,51 2013 MP 0,044 0,293 0,390 1,535 x5,24 2018 Nutcracker 0,049 0,229 0,255 0,802 x3,50 2018 *it can certainly go higher but as holiday seems to end I don't really know where it's headed - it'll definitely get the biggest multi though 4th biggest to 8th biggest: WE #4 BATB #5 Maleficent2 #6 Aladdin #7 Dumbo #8 Maleficent 1st 1,143M --- 1,143M 549k --- 549k 471k --- 471k 470k --- 470k 548k --- 548k 2nd 584k -49% 1,866M 555k 1% 1,341M 513k +9% 1,076M 403k -14% 954k 240k -56% 868k 3rd 311k -47% 2,296M 522k -6% 2,075M 331k -35% 1,464M 320k -21% 1,399M 153k -36% 1,112M 4th 281k -10% 2,712M 187k -44% 1,813M 184k -42% 1,719M 106k -31% 1,256M 5th 212k -25% 3,050M 104k -44% 1,945M 208k +13% 2,004M 181k 70% 1,470M 6th 127k -40% 3,221M 117k +12% 2,089M 116k -44% 2,157M 122k -32% 1,685M 7th 69k -45% 3,347M 77k -34% 2,231M 73k -37% 2,241M 88k -28% 1,823M 3,568M 3,000M 2,510M 2,392M 2,047M

Monday update: Geheimnis 920k (4-day) 1,04M (i.P.) the movie is very close to TLK for the 2nd biggest OW of the year. Top5 OW 2019: Admissions / theatres / average 1 1.671.661 717 2.331 A:EG 2 921.781 746 1.236 TLK 3 920.000* 700* 1.314* Das perfekte Geheimnis 4 841.002 690 1.219 Joker 5 640.081 633 1.011 Captain Marvel Joker 395k (-12%) 3,2M in the end Joker didn't reach TLK 4th WE (406k)... But it is already the 3rd biggest DC movie ever: year / admissions 1 79 4,2M Superman 2 12 3,3M The Dark Knight Rises 3 19 3,2M Joker 4 08 2,9M The Dark Knight 5 19 2,0M Aquaman Maleficent2 175k (-5%) 795k it's a little above its predecessor after 3 WE (784k) Addams Family 145k (+63%/+37%) 290k Terminator 115k (-14%) 305k

I understand what you mean. It's pretty much like TLK: Relative to other Disney remakes it did great but relative to many countries with huge breakouts it was rather disappointing. And now Joker: Seeing how close Italy and Spain are - I just get the feeling that if the german BO was in a better state it could do more... Still, both movies have great numbers in Germany

As mentioned some increases with the 2nd Trend: Geheimnis 900k 4-day (1,02M i.P.) Joker 415k (-8%) would be the best 4th WE of the year! Maleficent 180k (-2%) Addams Family 150k (+69%/+42%) Terminator 120k (-10%) New York 75k (-18%)

Weather is quite bad and seems to be over the WE (if it's not raining than at least it's pretty cold) so that shouldn't be the factor if it doesn't get there. So hopefully the Halloween effect won't be too big so Joker can have an acceptable IM for the WE.

If Joker can get to 406.117 admissions over the WE it'll have the biggest 4th WE of the year, hope it gets there!

1st Trend: Das perfekte Geheimnis 880k (4-day)/1M (5-day) Third biggest OW of the year Joker 400k (-11%) 3,21M (3rd biggest DC movie) Maleficent2 150k (-19%) 770k (close to Maleficent1 after 3rd WE: 784k) Addams Family 120k (+35%/+13%) 265k Terminator 100k (-25%) 300k Halloween Haunt 90k SSTTIDD 75k

Thursday numbers: (Halloween and a holiday in some parts of Germany) Das perfekte Geheimnis 165k // €1,5M/$1,68M Sadly nothing about the previews... Joker 75k (+12%) €700k/$785k Maleficent 27k (+15%) €265k/$295k Terminator 20k (-20%) €202k/$225k Addams Family 20k (+100%) €176k/195k Halloweem Haunt 16k // €143k/$160k SSTTIDD 13k €117k/$130k

Yes, it's not an actual yet but Joker should have something like that. So it should reach 3M admissions Saturday at last.

I hope for something like Joker + Das perfekte Geheimnis > 1M. Maybe Joker can stay close to 400k, the InsideKino prediction is around 380k (-15%). I would be great if the Geheimnis could have a big opening closer to 1M - we could really need this after last WE being down compared to last year to still have a chance for 120M+ admissions for 2019...

I really don't know why I can't remember that it was that big in Spain. But maybe the movie had just too many out of this world runs (Italy, Netherlands, Czech republic...) to be remembered It's nice that Joker is at least a little brother. And this time it gets to the Billion.

Is this for real? I can't really remember the spanish run but that is extremely impressive. It nearly doubled after that rather low WE 😮

So just around 50% drop again. What are the chances Joker gets to 2B here?