Aristis

Indeed. As I said, it's just one cinema. Still it seems remarkable that it doesn't really gain presales shortly before the release...

I'm not yet sold on the idea of SW9 not reaching 5M, I mean if so AEG remaining at the top wouldn't be that far away 😬 But this looks extremely weak for a SW movie. I've counted some numbers for the first time and in only one cinema (so this could be just an anecdote) but it actually lost presales from yesterday to today... This movie will probably have to fight to become even 2nd of the year. Awful. But we don't have actuals yet for Germany so maybe we should wait...

What I meant: good critics don't translate to good WOM and maybe it's the same the other way round. Audiences could like the amount of fan service the movie seems to offer (I won't see SW9 before Monday so I can't really say much on that untill then) or the damage that SW8 did is irreversible. At this point SW is dead in many parts of the world and SW9 relies heavily on a few countries that (after the predecessor) might want opinions of fans rather than critics. We'll see...

Well, you don't know WOM yet. You know critics opinions. They were great for SW8 though and you know what happened...

F1 vs F2: WE Frozen1 Frozen2 1st 572 654 1.430 1.635 2nd 577 1% 1.355 941 -34% 2.822 3rd 476 -18% 1.952 708 -25% 3.704 4th 433 -9% 2.499 468 -34% 4.307 5th 540 25% 3.242 6th 402 -26% 3.838 7th 158 -61% 4.091 8th 107 -32% 4.217 9th 81 -24% 4.311 10th 89 10% 4.412 4.767M 6.000M Minions vs F2: WE Minions Frozen2 1st 935 935 1.430 1.635 2nd 1.040 11% 2.394 941 -34% 2.822 3rd 760 -27% 3.598 708 -25% 3.704 4th 537 -29% 4.419 468 -34% 4.307 5th 366 -32% 5.147 6th 195 -47% 5.521 7th 242 24% 5.893 8th 111 -54% 6.160 9th 81 -27% 6.323 10th 125 54% 6.497 6.946M 6.000M

WE Frozen 1 Frozen 2 1st 776 --- 954 1.980 --- 1.980 2nd 656 -15% 1.697 1.347 -32% 3.485 3rd 619 -6% 2.434 866 -36% 4.439 4th 752 21% 3.471 558 -36% 5.077 5th 646 -14% 4.384 6th 151 -77% 4.565 7th 124 -18% 4.698 8th 95 -23% 4.802 5,152M 7,000M

AEG is at €57,53M. F2 needs more than 6,85M admissions to reach that. So that shouldn't be the problem. But SW9 would have to be below 4,9M admissions to not get the yearly crown in gross. So AEG won't stay at the top.

Monday numbers: #1 Frozen 2 470k (-34%) 4,3M (biggest 4th WE of the year) #2 Jumanji 2 400k (Jumanji 1 220k i.P.) #3 Geheimnis 140k (-31%) 4,185M (biggest 7th WE of the year) #4 Last Christmas 72,5k (-17%) 675k #5 Rabe Socke 3 50k

I'd say it's still more probable to reach 6M than not. It should be at 4,7M next WE at least after 300k WE. Holidays after that will get it there

I think he's probably on the low end of WE projection. While the IM to reach 450k would be the 2nd biggest yet it would still be far below LW: Thursday IM WE WE1 110 x13,00 1.430 WE2 70 -36,36% x13,44 941 -34,20% WE3 43 -38,57% x16,47 708 -24,76% WE4 32,5 -24,42% x13,85 450 -36,44% 500k would need x15,4 which (after LW) seems reachable, though I don't know if this x16+ was just an outlier and this WE it normalises. Maybe because of the competition of Jumanji2 it won't come as high LW?

One more country without updates... WE 05.12. - 08.12.: 1 26.521 -23 1.081.487 8 Maleficent 2 2 22.845 -30 2.850.411 10 Joker 3 14.107 --- 14.107 1 Ready or Not 4 13.729 --- 13.729 1 The Good Liar 5 11.057 -36 201.278 6 Die Addams Family 6 8.619 -52 34.723 2 Midway 7 8.102 -37 356.202 6 Terminator - Dark Fate 8 7.885 -49 121.254 4 Gemini Man 9 6.440 -49 55.268 3 Downton Abbey 10 6.066 --- 6.066 1 The Snow Queen Argentina really needs a big movie to open. Joker led the Top10 for 8 weeks just to be topped by another movie in its 7th week... Top10 2019: 1 6.629.947 Toy Story 4 2 3.895.839 Avengers: EG 3 3.607.650 The Lion King 4 2.850.411 Joker 5 1.779.039 La odisea de los giles 6 1.578.127 Ralph 2 7 1.352.496 Captain Marvel 8 1.343.670 Aladdin 9 1.302.794 Pets 2 10 1.285.266 Spider-Man: FFH http://www.insidekino.de/BO/ARG2019.htm

Same as in the romanian Thread there hasn't been an update in a long time... Frozen 2 had a big OW of 619k, just 9k behind the 10th biggest ever and more than 4x the OW of Frozen 1 (151k). F1 had some great holds to get to 1,13M+ (total after the last WE in Top10). F2 reached that after only two weeks though... F2: #1 619k #2 405k (-35%) 1,261M #3 388k (-4%) 1,866M In the last years there have been some great holds this time too, but I don't understand much from polish BO (and couldn't find anything on why holds are great this time) and therefore don't know if this alreasy was the last one or there is another before dropping 70%+... 1 387.917 -4% 1.865.767 3 Frozen 2 2 180.408 -10% 503.901 2 Jak poslubic milionera 3 105.038 --- 125.010 1 Arctic Dogs 4 69.327 -2% 197.482 2 Knives Out 5 34.192 --- 37.730 1 Ailos Reise 6 28.230 -44% 571.950 4 Proceder 7 25.242 -33 475.087 4 1800 gramow 8 22.894 +57% 988.137 6 Maleficent 2 9 21.004 --- 27.310 1 Saving Flora 10 18.367 + 37.137 3 Julemandens datter Top10 2019: 1 2.488.502 The Lion King 2 2.387.417 Miszmasz czyli Kogel Mogel 3 3 1.911.478 Joker 4 1.869.767 Polityka 5 1.865.767 Frozen 2 6 1.838.596 Avengers: Endgame 7 1.433.565 Planeta Singli 3 8 1.405.926 Pets 2 9 1.338.266 Boze Cialo 10 1.206.802 HTTYD3 Frozen2 will pass 2M next WE and with another great hold has a chance to top TLK. http://www.insidekino.de/BO/PL2019.htm

There hasn't been an update in some time so I'll just post some stats from InsideKino. Frozen 2 opened with 164k admissions for the 4th biggest OW ever: 1 366.195 Fast & Furious 8 2 196.210 Fast & Furious 7 3 175.584 Star Wars 7 4 164.400* Frozen 2 5 154.200* Avengers: EG 6 150.501 FSOG2 7 148.642 Hobbit 3 8 146.898 FSOG3 9 145.702 FSOG 10 135.200* Avengers: IW WE 06.12. - 08.12. 1 89.995 --- 89.995 1 Jumanji 2 2 49.400* -54 377.900* 3 Frozen 2 3 8.954 -59 35.607 2 Playing with Fire 4 8.792 -51 33.153 2 Jexi 5 7.069 -64 31.976 2 Charlies Angels 6 7.043 -43 130.007 5 Maria, Regina Romaniei 7 5.834 -38 76.231 4 Last Christmas 8 4.712 -48 79.387 4 FvF – Le Mans 66 9 3.013 --- 3.013 1 Systemsprenger 10 2.355 -57 26.942 3 Doctor Sleep TOP10 2019: 1 575.800* Avengers: EG 2 519.889 Joker 3 430.083 Hobbs & Shaw 4 377.900* Frozen 2 5 356.400* The Lion King 6 299.200* Captain Marvel 7 292.600* Maleficent 2 8 260.531 Oh, Ramona 9 249.505 Spider-Man - FFH 10 226.100* Aladdin *Those are estimates since it seems that Disney doesn't publish actuals http://www.insidekino.de/BO/RO2019.htm

As pointed out several times 7M+ should be more like the floor and with the increased ATP ($7,9 now vs. $7,2 after OW) $55M+ would happen too.

So again: WE Frozen1 Frozen2 1st 572 654 1.430 1.635 2nd 577 1% 1.355 941 -34% 2.822 3rd 476 -18% 1.952 708 -25% 3.704 4th 433 -9% 2.499 5th 540 25% 3.242 6th 402 -26% 3.838 7th 158 -61% 4.091 8th 107 -32% 4.217 9th 81 -24% 4.311 10th 89 10% 4.412 4.767M 6.000M A more detailed one in Spoiler (I hope it works): WE Minions Frozen2 1st 935 935 1.430 1.635 2nd 1.040 11% 2.394 941 -34% 2.822 3rd 760 -27% 3.598 708 -25% 3.704 4th 537 -29% 4.419 5th 366 -32% 5.147 6th 195 -47% 5.521 7th 242 24% 5.893 8th 111 -54% 6.160 9th 81 -27% 6.323 10th 125 54% 6.497 6.946M 6.000M

F2 vs F2: WE Frozen 1 Frozen 2 1st 776 --- 954 1.980 --- 1.980 2nd 656 -15% 1.697 1.347 -32% 3.485 3rd 619 -6% 2.434 866 -36% 4.439 4th 752 21% 3.471 5th 646 -14% 4.384 6th 151 -77% 4.565 7th 124 -18% 4.698 8th 95 -23% 4.802 5,152M 7,000M

Monday numbers: #1 Frozen2 695k (-26%) 3,69M - biggest 3rd WE of the year #2 Geheimnis 200k (-18%) 3,985M - biggest 6th WE of the year #3 Last Christmas 85k (+8%) 565k #4 Hustlers 60k (-15%/-19%) 160k #5 Joker 40k (-25%) 3,965M

The drop is neither awful nor is it great. It's ok. I would have hoped for a better drop by now but the biggest 3rd WE of the year really wouldn't be bad. It's still on course for 6M+ I'd say.

Thursday Numbers: #1 Frozen 2 43k (-39%) €365k / $300k #2 Geheimnis 20k (-33%) €175k / $193k #3 Last Christmas 10,2k (-6%) €85k / $94k #4 Hustlers 7,6k (-32%) €65k / $72k #5 Joker 4,5k (-33%) €41k / $45k

1st Trend: #1 Frozen 2 600k (-36%) 3,56M - it got past 3M yesterday, if it reaches 586k+ this WE it'll have the biggest 3rd WE of the year. #2 Geheimnis 160k (-35%) 3,945M #3 Last Christmas 75k (-5%) 550k #4 Hustlers 55k (-23%/-26%) #5 Joker 35k (-34%) 3,96M

I'm not very good in predicting as I'm always lowballing to not overestimate. So if I say 6M you shouldn't consider that as being the high end

I would still expect 6M admissions / €50M / $55M. Next WE we should have a clearer picture.

Like I did in the France Thread, here's a comparison of F1 and F2: WE Frozen1 Frozen2 1st 572 654 1.430 1.635 2nd 577 1% 1.355 941 -34% 2.822 3rd 476 -18% 1.952 4th 433 -9% 2.499 5th 540 25% 3.242 6th 402 -26% 3.838 7th 158 -61% 4.091 8th 107 -32% 4.217 9th 81 -24% 4.311 10th 89 10% 4.412 4.767M 6.000M Since I hope F2 might get around Minions number it's interesting to compare those runs too: WE Minions Frozen2 1st 935 935 1.430 1.635 2nd 1.040 11% 2.394 941 -34% 2.822 3rd 760 -27% 3.598 4th 537 -29% 4.419 5th 366 -32% 5.147 6th 195 -47% 5.521 7th 242 24% 5.893 8th 111 -54% 6.160 9th 81 -27% 6.323 10th 125 54% 6.497 6.946M 6.000M Minions run was just crazy. It was first from 1st to 5th WE and then again on the 7th and 10th. It's the 5th biggest CGI-animated movie in admissions and the biggest in gross (€57,93M). Frozen getting there too would be awesome!

F1 vs F2: WE Frozen 1 Frozen 2 1st 776 --- 954 1.980 --- 1.980 2nd 656 -15% 1.697 1.347 -32% 3.485 3rd 619 -6% 2.434 4th 752 21% 3.471 5th 646 -14% 4.384 6th 151 -77% 4.565 7th 124 -18% 4.698 8th 95 -23% 4.802 5,152M 6,000M

Monday numbers: F2 is up, the rest is pretty much the same. Frozen 2 930k (-35%/-43%) 2,81M