Aristis

Lol, don't know how that could happen But maybe *Ich werde nicht, außer irgendetwas unter 950k* was what I wanted to say

I hope that is a rather low prediction since IM would be down from OW. I won't except anything lower than 950k

Thursday numbers: Frozen2 70k (-36%) €575k/$630k Geheimnis 30k (-30%) €265k/$290k Hustlers 11,1k €95k/$105k Last Christmas 10,8k (-10%) €90k/$100k Joker 6,7k (-33%) €61,5k/$67,5k

Well... if they contribute to BO and this helps some cinemas as the Paris, better Netflix helps reducing its own damage.

True, I thought lately that mostly "event"-movies are successful but I wasn't able to connect it that way. Maybe someday Netflix will buy cinemas for customers to watch Netflix together...

Just some more statistics (mostly) about F2 OW: TOP10 2019 OW: Admissions Theaters PTA 1 1.671.661 717 2.331 Avengers: Endgame 2 1.429.642 743 1.924 Frozen2 3 924.217 700 1.320 Das perfekte Geheimnis 4 921.781 746 1.236 The Lion King 5 841.002 690 1.219 Joker 6 640.081 633 1.011 Captain Marvel 7 615.664 669 920 HTTYD3 8 590.145 681 867 IT2 9 491.783 621 792 Hobbs & Shaw 10 438.998 610 720 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood http://www.insidekino.de/DTop10/19/DTop19NOV21.htm With SW9 yet to come TOP3 will be 1M+. But with SW9 opening on a wednesday too it isn't safe to open above F2... I hope for the best though. TOP10 Animation OW: Admissions Theaters PTA 1 2.395.588 1.061 2.258 Ice Age 2 2 2.032.136 1.004 2.024 Finding Nemo 3 1.670.397 754 2.215 The Simpsons Movie 4 1.475.967 841 1.755 Madagascar 2 5 1.465.302 794 1.845 Ice Age 6 1.457.891 861 1.693 Ice Age 3 7 1.429.642 743 1.924 Frozen 2 8 1.273.707 888 1.434 Shrek 2 9 1.226.475 834 1.471 Madagascar 10 1.106.059 820 1.349 Ice Age 4 http://www.insidekino.de/DTop10/19/DTop19NOV21.htm TOP OW Alltime: OW Theaters PTA Year 28 1.682.806 982 1.714 Harry Potter 5 07 29 1.681.087 857 1.962 JB - Spectre 15 30 1.671.661 717 2.331 Avengers - Endgame 19 31 1.670.397 754 2.215 The Simpsons Movie 07 32 1.627.277 814 1.999 Star Wars 8 17 … 39 1.457.891 861 1.693 Ice Age 3 09 40 1.450.024 865 1.676 The Da Vinci Code 06 41 1.429.642 743 1.924 Frozen 2 19 42 1.409.004 950 1.483 Spider-Man 02 43 1.353.030 739 1.831 Fifty Shades of Grey 15 http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/DBOStartrekord.htm And the last one, TOP OW Alltime in €: 4-day OW in € Incl. previews Year 1 25.345.223 Star Wars 7 15 2 19.755.398 Star Wars 8 17 3 19.223.781 24.321.864 (5-day) Avengers - Endgame 19 4 17.733.509 Fack Ju Göhte 2 15 5 16.666.356 Harry Potter 1 01 … 29 12.401.366 Fifty Shades of Grey 1 15 30 12.347.704 14.777.539 (5-day) Fast & Furious 7 15 31 12.275.659 14.028.336 (5-day) Frozen 2 19 32 12.144.229 Matrix Reloaded 03 33 11.938.134 Star Wars 1 99 http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/DBOStartrekordBO.htm

The InsideKino prediction for the 2nd WE is 930k (-35%) 2,785M. That would be good and the biggest 2nd WE of the year beating A:EG (871k). I still secretly hope it can get to 1M+ 2nd WE which happened the last time in 2017 for the local FJG3 (1,07M)... 2019 could look something like this in the end: Frozen2 6M SW9 5,7M TLK 5,5M A:EG 5,1M Geheimnis 4,4M Joker 4,1M (I hope the italic ones will get higher...) It seems strange that this year has to fight to get to 120M+ admissions as the Top10 is rather strong: 2019 (with the numbers above) ~40M 2018 ~30M --> 105,4M 2017 ~37M --> 122,3M 2016 ~34M --> 121,1M But below that 2019 is probably too weak to easily get there as we have only 21x 1M+ movies yet (22x including SW9, which is save) compared to 30x (2018), 32x (2017) and 31x (2016). But maybe the strong year end can rescue us...

$14,29M (according to BOM), 1,98M, ATP ~7,2€

I wonder if it could have done even better with more showings. Most 2D showings on Saturday and Sunday were almost sold out. There wasn't any showing of F2 after 8pm and more 3D than 2D shows (probably Disney demanded that). And according to the InsideKino forums the same case was for some other cinemas. Anyway, great OW. I hope it'll get the admissions it lost this WE on its 2nd WE.

InsideKino tweeted that too and I looked at JP-BO were it's still at 9,75M admissions. So who should be trusted, Disney or all other sources?

TLK €37M >>>> SW7 €25M >> SW8 €15M I don't think SW9 can overcome this huge gap between SW7 and TLK

Frozen2 opens with 1,98M, more than the double the first including previews. Now it's all about the legs WE Frozen 1 Frozen 2 1st 776 --- 954 1.980 --- 1.980 2nd 656 -15% 1.697 3rd 619 -6% 2.434 4th 752 21% 3.471 5th 646 -14% 4.384 6th 151 -77% 4.565 7th 124 -18% 4.698 8th 95 -23% 4.802 5,152M 6,000M F1 had a multi of 6,6x - F2 shouln't have a problem getting to 3x+ and 6M+.

I hope the actual WE is higher than $14,9M, cause that would probably be only around 1,55M and I want it to be past that

"The first day in France set a new Disney Animation record with $2.6M, while Germany posted the 3rd highest animated opening day of all time at $1.9M. Both markets are currently at $3M." So Deadline wants to tell me that F2 did $0,4M on Thursday in France, down 85% from OD?

It's $0,5M, isn't it?

$50M is a good target, probably needs around 4,5x multipler from 4-day OW. Animation often has great legs, this year for example Pets2 has 12,5x, AB2 over 7x and Abominable over 6x. And Minions (that opened on a very hot WE with 935k) got to 6,95M with 7,4x despite the big OW. So, if F2 isn't extremely frontloaded, 4,5x should be easy.

1st Trend: Frozen 1,245M (4-day), 1,45M (5-day) 4-day ~$11,7M, 5-day ~$13,7M This would be the 2nd biggest OW of the year (#1 A:EG 1,67M, #3rd Geheimnis 924k, #4th TLK 921k). Geheimnis 375k (-36%) 3,3M Joker 85k (-41%) 3,825M Last Christmas 85k (-34%/-50%) Le Mans 66 / FvF 65k (-30%/-41%)

Thursday Numbers: #1 Frozen 2 110k // €935k/$1,04M - 2-day total 315k / ~€2,68M / ~€2,97M #2 Geheimnis 43k (-31%) €375k/$415k #3 Last Christmas 12k (-11%) €100k/$110k #4 Joker 10k (-41%) €90k/$100k

Don't forget this is more a kids movie - Germany has high TP but not that high for kids. It'd probably be more like $60M to $63M. And this is a very early prediction without even knowing the WE. I think $50M would be a better target first...

Yeah, it's better not to get too excited too soon... The OD is indeed the 3rd biggest of the year with around 204k

So, the InsideKino prediction is online and... crazy high. I really hope this might come true, but we should still be very cautious (he's known as optimistic): WE Cume 1 1.500.000 --- 1.725.000 7.000.000 1 Frozen 2 2 440.000 -25% 3.325.000 4.250.000 4 Das perfekte Geheimnis 3 90.000 -30% 295.000 600.000 2 Last Christmas 4 87.000 -40% 3.820.000 4.000.000 7 Joker 5 75.000 --- 75.000 200.000 1 Doctor Sleep http://www.insidekino.de/DProg/ProgNOV212019.htm So he thinks OD: 225k OW: 1,5M (4-day), 1,725M (5-day) Total: 7M This would be awesome!

Yeah, I changed it as soon as I saw what I did 😬

MarkG from InsideKino wrote that first numbers indicate the OD for Frozen2 could top TLK (with 70% of the country having holiday compared to 20% now). TLK opened to 208k so we should have 200k+. Top OD 2019: A:EG 462k TLK 208k F2 200k+ Geheimnis 165k (after 120k previews) Joker 140k (after 100k previews) CM 125k IT2 100k (after 40k previews)

Frozen opened to 572k (654k i.P.) in 629 theaters and went on to 4,77M admissions - an awesome multipler of more than 8x. Biggest CGI animation: Nr. Admissions € Theatres OWeek 1 Finding Nemo 8.839.084 46.360.180 1.049 2.588.509 20.11.2003 2 Ice Age 2 8.747.671 48.754.480 1.111 3.612.053 06.04.2006 3 Ice Age 3 8.709.881 56.530.290 875 2.248.629 01.07.2009 4 Ice Age 7.299.318 39.212.946 875 2.174.580 21.03.2002 5 Minions 6.945.769 57.929.442 803 1.353.739 02.07.2015 6 Madagascar 6.720.790 35.110.604 861 2.000.100 14.07.2005 7 Ice Age 4 6.700.208 52.041.305 825 1.497.726 02.07.2012 8 Ratatouille 6.116.087 34.026.400 860 1.232.969 03.10.2007 9 Madagascar 2 6.070.690 34.544.335 841 1.793.367 04.12.2008 10 The Lion King 5.532.461 50.819.752 769 1.379.689 17.07.2019 11 Shrek 2 5.322.586 27.920.179 895 1.815.591 01.07.2004 12 Frozen 1 4.766.871 35.762.932 791 778.397 28.11.2013 13 Despicable Me 3 4.651.715 37.923.183 782 1.245.812 06.07.2017 14 Madagascar 3 3.973.140 30.542.221 748 1.102.554 02.10.2012 15 Tangled 3.936.183 31.140.234 612 731.080 09.12.2010 http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/Dcgi.htm Frozen still has the 9th biggest 5th WE and Week (down just 6% from OW and OWeek) 5th WE WE Theaters 1 967.139 809 Titanic 98 2 800.703 662 TLK 94 3 636.281 648 Aladdin 93 4 598.175 738 Avatar 10 5 582.867 1.152 HP1 01 6 575.886 645 Jurassic Park 93 7 566.862 768 Intouchables 12 8 555.368 1.070 LOTR1 02 9 540.149 791 Frozen 1 13 10 529.804 868 ID 96 5th Week Week Theaters 1 1.304.338 809 Titanic 98 2 1.054.262 662 TLK 94 3 861.418 1.152 HP1 01 4 832.417 648 Aladdin 93 5 816.879 738 Avatar 10 6 778.191 645 Jurassic Park 93 7 762.943 768 Intouchables 12 8 742.477 671 Manitu 01 9 734.196 791 Frozen 1 13 10 721.385 1.070 LOTR1 02 And the 8th biggest 6th WE 6th WE WE Theaters 1 853.614 808 Titanic 98 2 787.035 1.152 HP1 01 3 593.283 665 Avatar 10 4 548.991 671 TLK 94 5 478.577 769 Intouchables 12 6 437.179 507 Schindlers List 94 7 433.915 647 Jurassic Park 93 8 401.666 750 Frozen 1 13 9 389.831 994 Finding Nemo 03 10 379.659 504 Home Alone 91 http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/DBOWochenrekorde.htm Frozen 2 opens in 743 theatres now. Funny thing that I just saw, Finding Nemo opened the same day 16 years ago (20.11.2003) - that has to be a good sign

Everything less than 1M would be disappointing to me (especially since it's 5-day). But I hope for 4-day 1M+... As for Doctor Sleep: It won't become 2nd - Geheimnis is still very strong. The best it might hope for is 3rd, and seeing the results in other countries even that isn't safe... Also it opens in only 330 theaters.