It's no secret that the biggest hits of 2016 are animated features and superhero movies, many of which were successful to a surprising degree.
However, I wonder if there will be a dead spot in the box office, when the old movies' followups can't compare to their originals, and audiences ignore new concepts.
Take for example, comic book movies. Batman v Superman faded away quickly due to negative reactions, and it looks like Suicide Squad might follow in its path.
Captain America: Civil War dropped significantly from Age of Ultron, and I doubt that further movies involving the Avengers will reverse this trend. And we must consider that Robert Downey Jr. might get too old to play Iron Man and keep the audience's interest.
The issue is that box office growth is driven by outsize success. The DC movies are not finding the same audience that Christopher Nolan's Batman movies did, and Marvel's Avengers are slowly declining. And without surprise successes, ticket revenue might even decrease.
If TFA only made $400m and Jurassic World only made $300m, the total box office for movies released in 2015 would have been about $10.2 billion, a decline from 2015. And that is the kind of box office we are going to see if franchises decline and if there are fewer breakouts.
Why 2021? Because no one knows what is scheduled for that year, outside of the 10th Fast and Furious movie. Maybe something truly original and broadly appealing will come out then and keep everyone happy.