Birdman seemed close to a lock too.
Right now I'm thinking MMFR is #1 and Spotlight #2. Great action movies have been rewarded here before (The Matrix, The Bourne Ultimatum), and the editing in Fury Road is pretty undeniable.
If Vikander and Mara are both in supporting, then between them (and Jennifer Jason Leigh, Winslet, HBC, Virginia Madsen and whoever else has a shot at a nom there) that category might end up being more interesting than this one. I don't even know the last time that was the case.
Then again, if that opens up a spot for Charlize Theron here, then I'm all for it.
I'd predict Lubezki for the win, but I do think having just won twice in two years will keep him from being a sure thing. Wouldn't be shocked to see Richardson take home another one, or even Seale - I think people are underestimating Fury Road's chances across the board, and this wouldn't be a hard Oscar to give it considering it's such a showy, self-evidently great piece of work, and Seale is a respected veteran.
Edward Lachmann - Carol
John Seale - Mad Max: Fury Road
Emmanuel Lubezki - The Revenant
Robert Richardson - The Hateful Eight
Roger Deakins - Sicario / Hoyte van Hoytema - Spectre
Yeah, like Nicholson, Hanks doesn't need an "iconic" performance to win again, just a showy and appealing one in a hit movie. That and light competition.
The storyline could work if this were a big stylized melodrama, but Reitman's style has always been too low-key and detached for that. He was wrong for this from day one.