Jake Gittes

I'm going to regret putting AE in my Top 15 instead of World War Z.

I read somewhere today (upd.: it's in an MTV interview) that Shyamalan has already decided on his next project and it's going to be a "micro-budget" family drama. I'm not exactly holding my breath for it to be any good (yet), but hey, if the guy has any talent left at all, going small scale again could be the best way to show for it. Big-budget studio blockbusters like TLA and AE are the absolute last thing he's suited for.

Hayao Miyazaki's new film gets released on July 20 in Japan. No idea if it makes it to American theaters before the end of the year, though it doesn't look likely (Ponyo and Spirited Away both had to wait over a year, Howl's Moving Castle seven months). Still, who knows. I still have Frozen as my top contender provided it's on the Tangled/WIR level of quality and Monsters University doesn't get overwhelmingly positive reviews (like 90% or more on RT).

1) What film will finish #1? After Earth 2) Will After Earth finish with at least 10 mill more than NYSM? Yes 3) Will TH3 drop more than 50%? Yes 4) Will Epic increase more than 50% on Saturday? Yes 5) Will ST finish higher than TH3? Yes 6) Will NYSM make more than 10 mill OD? No 7) Will TGG drop more than 45%? No 8) Will The East have a theater average of more than $5000? Yes 9) Will F6 drop less than 50%? No 10) Will F6 increase more than 25% on Saturday? Yes 11) Will After Earth have an increase on Saturday of more than 10%? No 12) Will Fast 6 make more that ST, TH and Epic combined? No 10/12 3000 11/12 4000 12/12 5000 Bonus 1: What will Fast 6 gross on Friday? 4000 $10.610m Bonus 2: What will the top 3 films gross? 4000 $99.303m Bonus 3: What will finish in positions: 2 Fast & Furious 6 5 Star Trek Into Darkness 9 Mud 13 The Croods 2000 each and a bonus of 3000 if all correct.

I'm getting more and more glad I first saw this in October 2009, more or less before the overwhelming critical acclaim basically forced itself on everyone who hadn't been already aware of it. Not that I don't agree with it, to the contrary, but at least I'd had the opportunity to form my opinion quickly and surely without the deafening cries of "brilliant" and "overrated" coming at me from all sides.

If we are talking full-length, then "Golem: How He Came Into the World" (1920).

That was my reaction to Claire Danes in Temple Grandin. If that movie had been released theatrically in late 2009 instead of broadcast on HBO in February 2010, I'm convinced that it would have been a crowdpleaser at the BO and Danes would have steamrolled all over Bullock, Streep and Mulligan during the awards season, including at the Oscars. Seriously one of the greatest performances I've ever seen, and it deserved to be shown in theaters. It's not like the movie isn't or could never be cinematic enough or anything. That's especially true in Candelabra's case, which judging from the trailers looks terrific visually. The whole "too gay" thing is some bullshit.

So far I think I'll likely end up within $20m on IM3 ($401m, but it the movie still has a chance to go beyond $421m) and FF6 ($235m), then I'm going to lose a ton of points for missing STID by over $100m and TH3 by over $40m, as well as not having TGG in my top 15. I might score some points on Epic if it makes it into the top 15 - I've got it at $138m. Overall, a mixed bag, but far from disastrous.

Same here. I'll be totally cool if Baumer doesn't accept this, but I figured since the thread was still open I got nothing to lose. June 9.

You saw it?

That is seriously a great hold for Trek. Should be at $185m this time next week, could be at $205-210m in 2 weeks. Sure it won't touch the previous movie, but considering everything, to get within $20m of it would be a terrific result. This time last week I thought $225m was the roof.

I'd expect them to fudge it if the estimate was over $99m (but then again, they would have just reported $100m in the first place anyway), but the very fact that they officially estimate it both under $100m and under Iron Man tells me that it's going to stay there with actuals. I could be wrong, but that's the feeling I get.

Among the biggest MD openers, Indy 4 and AWE both dropped 9.5% on Sunday, so with a $32m Sat, best case scenario for F&F6 would be a $29m Sunday and a $99.2m weekend. Worst case scenario would be a $31m Saturday, a 20% drop on Sunday (that X-Men: The Last Stand had) to $25m, and a $94.2m weekend. So it's not hitting 100 unless it holds extremely well on Sunday. Anyway, if I were Universal I wouldn't lose too much sleep over it - based on people's reaction to the very final scene of F&F6, the seventh one is going to be a near-dead lock for $100m next July. Although I'm sure I'd hate WB more than ever for releasing TH3 at the same date, because it most likely took just enough business from F&F6 to cause it to miss $100m.

Around 1200, give or take a couple dozen. I made a habit of writing down every single movie I've watched for the first time since Jan. 1, 2010, so I can say I saw 129 movies in 2010, 129 in 2011, 210 in 2012 and so far 86 in 2013. Except I do include documentaries there.

I think if Candelabra wins Best Actor, Douglas and Damon will share it.

And only Shrek 2 and TS3 did it in their original release.

Well recently Matrix Revolutions, Prince Caspian, The Mummy 3, Die Hard 5 and Bourne Legacy all dropped 50% or more from their predecessors (and that's just big franchises), so TH would have to finish under $120m to qualify. If you go back to the 1990s, though, you'll find Beverly Hills Cop 3 tumbling 72% from BHC2, for an example.

Glassfairy has it at $130m, Dexter at $150m. The overwhelming majority of predictions are in the $175-225m range.

I love it when an acclaimed movie just shows up seemingly out of nowhere. Definitely going to check this one out later in the year.

Jaws for me. Every time I watch it I just can't get over what a perfect piece of storytelling it is.

Can definitely see Redford getting in with all the raves. And even while he's always been known more as a great movie star than a great actor, I was somewhat surprised to learn that The Sting gave him the only acting nomination he ever had.

1) Will Hangover do more than 7 million at midnights/early? No 2) Will Hangover do more than 25 mill OD? No 3) Will Hangover have at least 3 days over 20 mill? No 4) Will Hangover's 4 day (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) be more than STID's OW 4 day(including all money earned on Wed)? No 5) Will Hangover make more for its 4 (FRIDAY-MONDAY)day than Fast 6 does for its 3 day (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)? No 6) Will Hangover have a world wide weekend of more than (FRI-SUN)120 mill? Yes 7) Will Fast 6 make more than 5 mill for midnights/early? Yes 8) Will Fast 6 make more than 35 mill OD? No 9) Will Fast 6 make more than 175 mill WW for this weekend(FRI THROUGH SUNDAY)? Yes 10) Will Fast 6 make more than 96 mill OW (FRI-MONDAY)? Yes 11) Will Fast 6 drop more than 15% on Saturday? No 12) Will Star Trek drop more than 47.5% for the weekend(fRI-SUN)? Yes 13) Will Star Trek make more than IM3 and Gatsby combined (4 DAY)? No 14) Will Gatsby have a better Saturday increase than STID? Yes 15) Will Epic make more than 28 mill OW (4 DAY)? Yes 16) Will the three openers do more than 225 mill (including the 4 day for Hangover) (NOT INCLUDING MONDAY)? No 17) Will Before Midnight have a theater average of more than $6500 (FRI-MON)? Yes 18) Will Epic increase more than 45% on Saturday? No 19) Will Epic finish in 3rd spot? Yes 20) Will any of Hangover's best 3 days, plus Epic's weekend (FRI-SUN)gross add up to more than Fast 6's 3 day? No 16/20 3000 17/20 5000 18/20 7000 19/20 9000 20/20 12000 What finishes in spots 5 Iron Man 3 7 Mud 9 Pain & Gain 12 Frances Ha 2000 each 5000 bonus for all 4 correct Bonus 1: what will STID gross for the weekend? 4000 $43.356m Bonus 2: What will Fast 6 gross on Saturday? 4000 $28.978m Bonus 3: What will IM3 increase by on Saturday (%)...3 decimal points please. 4000 45.549%

Refn already made something of a clusterfuck in FEAR X

eugene hernandez ‏@eug19m Cheers. Boos. Whistles. Groans. More cheers. More whistles. Something for everyone in #Cannes2013 press reaction to ONLY GOD FORGIVES now. erickohn ‏@erickohn22m ONLY GOD FORGIVES: basically the wacky B-movie DRIVE riffed on, elevated by Gosling out-Goslinging himself & hilariously psycho K.S. Thomas. Nigel M. Smith ‏@nigelmfs8m 'Only God Forgives' looks gorgeous, quelle surprise. Bleaker, less character driven and thrilling than 'Drive.' #cannes2013 Matt Patches ‏@misterpatches15m The movie has more in common with Valhalla Rising. Matt Patches ‏@misterpatches20m Best part of Only God Forgives is Cliff Martinez's score. Vangelis-esque w/ blossoming reverb. Maybe score came before film? Jordan Hoffman ‏@JHoffman629m Someone tell NW Refn that glorious production design & GIF-ready close ups do not make a film. Matt Patches ‏@misterpatches23m Only God Forgives is another mood piece from Refn. Wish I was down with the mood. Though Kristen Scott Thomas is a hoot.

WB had HBP, The Hangover, The Blind Side and Sherlock Holmes in its top 10 in 2009. Paramount had Iron Man, Indy 4, Kung Fu Panda and Madagascar 2 in 2008.