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kswiston

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Everything posted by kswiston

  1. kswiston
    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=cars3.htm
  2. kswiston
    I am confused why you keep using gross production budgets, when it is pretty obvious that tax incentives/breaks are pre-factored into film budgets. Also, Avengers kicked off a general growth of the superhero genre internationally. Especially in China. There's a pretty clear line of before and after The Avengers for all superhero films. Especially in China.
  3. kswiston
    I don't think that it's an accident that MCU international grosses went through the roof as soon as Disney took over. Also, ignoring the fact that it is very unlikely that Marvel would still be independent by now if Disney didn't snap them up, and independent MCU would have had Perlmutter ruining things. RDJ would have gotten the boot. Feige might have bailed by now due to his conflict with Permutter. We wouldn't have some of the films we are getting recently. Definitely not in the forms that we got them.
  4. kswiston
    Next week, Disney becomes the first studio in history to break $2B in the domestic box office before the first half of the year is finished. Edit: Disney 2018 is only the 7th time a studio has broken $2B at the domestic box office in a calendar year, making it even more impressive.
  5. kswiston
    There is something wrong with Universal's China figure. Saturday was in the low 40Ms. The film should be ~$74M over 2 days. How is it supposed to make over $50M today?
  6. kswiston
    Looks like JW2 more or less ended IW's run.
  7. kswiston
    I don't think that Fallen Kindom has much of a chance at matching that drop domestically.
  8. kswiston
    What is the point of talking about 600M worldwide grosses when Fallen Kingdom will pass that without the domestic take?
  9. kswiston
    Wasn't last weekend boosted by a holiday in China? Infinity War's total in China is already past where people were figuring that it would end up after that second weekend. EDIT: Seems like Infinity War was the only film to increase from Thursday, and that everything else was way down. Given the fact that the openers didn't really make much, I take it that Thursday had some special circumstances, and you were mis-projecting things based on that.
  10. kswiston
    Based on presales so far, I am confused why so many people think that these two will be particularly close. JW and AoU being close doesn't mean that much for the sequels IMO. So out
  11. kswiston
    2.65M matches up with the 2.7M estimate that EmpireCity gave for the leading film.
  12. kswiston
    Ya. It's 100%. With next week having no real direct competition domestically, and the week after being Fathers Day, the worst case scenario is $25M more domestically (I am expecting closer to $35M). Even in that scenario, it's impossible for OS + China to fail to bring in another $10M between them.
  13. kswiston
    A decent number of them get releases. BR2049 released, both Kingsman films released, even Alien Covenant released. Deadpool and Mad Max are the recent ones that got skipped over. Suicide Squad got skipped, and it was already PG-13.
  14. kswiston
    Everyone is checking in for Rth numbers
  15. kswiston
    Even 28 seems like wishful thinking given the weekend. That's a 30% bump. EmpireCity thought that this weekend (or Fri/Sat specifically) would be a positive surprise looking at what I assume was presale numbers. We ended up getting a worse Friday than many were already expecting. Maybe Star Wars/Solo just has terrible walk up business?
  16. kswiston
    I don't think that having underestimated a new film or decade+ later revival of a sleeping franchise means much when judging the prospects of a sequel. People underestimated TDK, The Avengers, Jurassic World, TFA, and pretty much every huge break out film out there. They then proceeded to overestimate most of their sequels.
  17. kswiston
    You will probably have to wait until tomorrow to get an official OS update.
  18. kswiston
    Rogue One was at 33M by the same point http://deadline.com/2016/12/rogue-one-star-wars-overseas-opening-international-box-office-1201872164/amp/
  19. kswiston
    Rogue One only opened to a bit less than 135M overseas, and then had winter holiday legs. Solo has no holidays and Jurassic World 2 opening in many markets 2 weeks from now. If Solo is down 30%+ this weekend from R1, I see no way for Justice League numbers to happen, even if the domestic take is not a disaster. Comparisons between Solo and R1 are just going to get worse as we get farther along.
  20. kswiston
    665M domestic is a lowball. IW should be around 630M domestic by this coming Monday. It will make more than double this weekend's 3-day after that. Nothing major comes out until Incredibles 2.
  21. kswiston
    People here also had TLJ at like $70M at one point in the presales analysis cycle, so we'll see where things land.
  22. kswiston
    BoT moderation prefers a light touch
  23. kswiston
    Easily. It was only $90M behind DH2 as of Wednesday, and China's Friday total (plus previews) was more than $70M. Just the domestic Thurs-Fri in addition to China puts it over DH2 today.
  24. kswiston
    Domestic should be $545M or so after this weekend. China looks to be heading for $200M give or take a little bit. That is around $1.515B before adding in Thurs-Sun for the rest of the international markets. Should end up pretty close to $1.6B
  25. kswiston
    Even Civil War legs after a 110M weekend is 617M. 650M is still probable.
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