kswiston

Next weekend will probably be over 1.5B. Also I am not sure why people are going so extreme in the pessimistic direction after a 57% weekend drop (maybe a tad better if Sat was depressed a bit from sporting events). Some of you are predicting the same multi as AoU. AoU had an OW multi of 1.46x OW after its second weekend. IW is already around 1.74x. So it would have to have significantly worse legs going forward to only hit 2.4x.

A potential $125M second weekend for Infinity War, and everyone is talking about Tully. Seems like BoT!

You guys are being absurd in your inflation of Avatar in the Chinese market. Most of the growth in the past decade has come from local films. $200M for a hollywood film in 2009 is not $2B for a hollywood film in 2018. Just like Transformers 2's $65M total that same year isn't equivalent to $650M now. No hollywood film has come anywhere near that.

$600M is already locked in North America

Without overanalyzing 6 days of data, my takeaway from this is that the path to 700M+ domestic for IW stays open. BP and IW both hitting that after releasing 2.5 months apart would be unreal.

Wasn't that person saying that the Sun number was several million higher than it ended up being? Edit: it looks like he said $70M was a bare minimum. I thought that he was off by more.

Even if Infinity War misses $2B, 4th of all time, ahead of JW but behind TFA, is a lock. Based on Mojo numbers, AoU would have had an opening around $265M OS if it opened everywhere simultaneously except for China and Russia. Ultron ended up making around $670M OS not counting China/Russia. If Infinity War can manage the same legs off of this $382M opening, it would make $965M, before adding in China (and whatever little Russia brings). So $1.2B OS is probably on the lower end of things. $1.1B is the floor with weaker than expected holds. I'm thinking that $600M is pretty close the the worst case scenario domestically (Civil War Legs is still $588M), which gives you a floor in the $1.7B range if OS holds are mediocre and if China is being greatly overestimated right now.

The same Sunday drop as Avengers 1 off of that Saturday is 66M

That Sunday hold is on the pessimistic side given the trend of the weekend. Sunday is going to have significant spillover.

The 28.2M on Friday was already minus China, unless Deadline royally messed up. Deadline reported $109M worldwide on Saturday. That included $39M from Fri-Sat in China, but was the worldwide total outside of China as of Friday, subtracting that. Domestic was around 27M for that report. Edit: I mean, it's possible that Deadline double counted Friday in China or something. But $13.6M on Friday also seems really low off of a $10M Thursday.

China's estimate for that number was about $62M, so $66M for elsewhere. Honestly, I think that someone at WB messed up the number, because it doesn't make sense. Friday was $28M and change overseas. The film made money on Wed/Thurs. How would Sat+Sun be under $30M combined given that? EDIT: Wed+Thurs overseas was $13.7M. Friday was $28.2M. So WB has overseas making around $24M for Sat AND Sun. Seems impossible to me, even with holidays messing things up.

What is the weekend looking like for RPO? $63-64M?

So over $200M worldwide this weekend, with good legs in China to come and a few markets left to open. I wonder if RPO can top The Lost World's $619M to become Spielberg's 3rd biggest gross.

Black Panther is a lock for highest grossing superhero film period by this point. It will be around $40M ahead of The Avengers through both films third weekend. Avengers will make up some ground next weekend since its fourth weekend was Memorial Day weekend, but making up $40M probably isn't happening.

What were the totals (as of today) for last week's openers?

Did China have three $400M+ films on the same day then?

Monster Hunt 2 is looking like the BvS of Chinese blockbuster sequels.

I am pretty sure that JL was in a lot more than 17 markets on its first Thursday.

Regardless of whether Monkey King 3 sucked or not, did the regulars from this thread move to another forum or something? I mostly lurk, but I have been following this thread for years, and can't remember it ever going a week without a post.

China's gross won't even need to be all that special for $500M international at this point. Holdovers should easily hit $400M, and then add in whatever Japan grosses. EDIT: I'd say that $800M worldwide is a lock. Domestic seems to be be heading to at least IT numbers.

When do Jumanji presales start? Or have they started already?

Deadline updated: http://deadline.com/2017/12/last-jedi-jumanji-new-years-weekend-box-office-2018-1202233711/ Industry estimates for the weekend of Dec. 29-31, 2017: Star Wars: The Last Jedi(DIS), 4,232 theaters (0)/ $19.1M (-23%) Fri/ 3-day: $55M (-23%)/4-day: $72.3M Total:$537M/ Wk 3 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (SONY), 3,765 theaters (0) / $17.4M Fri (+44%)/3-day: $50.1M (+38%)/4-day: $66.3M/Total:$185.6M/ Wk 2 Pitch Perfect 3 (UNI), 3,468 theaters (+21)/ $6.6M (-38%) Fri/3-day: $18.2M(-9%)/4-day: $23.4M/Total: $69.9M/ Wk 2 The Greatest Showman (FOX), 3,316 theaters (+310) / $5.3M (+71%) Fri /3-day: $15.4M (+75%)/4-day $20.4M/Total: $54M/Wk 2 Ferdinand (FOX), 3,337 theaters (-293) / $4.7M (+74%)Fri /3-day: $12.8M(+75%)/4-day: $16.9M/Total: $59M/ Wk 3 Coco(DIS), 2,104 theaters (-7) / $2.9M (+61%) Fri/3-day: $7.6M (+41%)/4-day:$9.9M/Total: $182.3M / Wk 6 Darkest Hour (FOC), 943 theaters (+137)/ $1.8M Fri (+29%)/3-day: $5.5M(+41%)/ 4-day: $7.3M/ Total: $19.9M/ Wk 6 All The Money in the World (Sony) 2,074 theaters (+6)/ $1.75M Fri/3-day:$5.2M/4-day: $6.9M/Total: $14.1M/Wk 1 Downsizing (PAR), 2,664 theaters (-4)/ $1.6M Fri (-20%) /3-day: $5M (+2%)/ 4-day: $6.7M/Total: $19.1M/ Wk 2 Wonder (LG), 1,193 theaters (+63) / $1.3M Fri (+63%) /3-day: $3.7M (+85%)/4-day: $4.8M /Total: $123.1M/ Wk 7 The Shape of Water (FSL), 756 theaters (+26) / $1.1m Fri (0%) /3-day: $3.6M(+18%)/4-day: $4.7M/Total: $16.8M/Wk 5 Father Figures (ALC/WB), 2,902 theaters (0)/ $1.1M Fri (-20%) /3-day: $3.3M(+2%)/ 4-day: $4.4M/ Total: $13.4M/ Wk 2 Molly’s Game (STX) 271 theaters/$720K Fri/3-day: $2.2m/4-day: $3M/Total: $5.9M/ Wk 1

Without going back to the 2006 data on Mojo, that seems like a pretty good hold to me. I want to see how close The Last Jedi can come to Paramount's entire domestic output in the 2017 calendar year.

I have no idea what people are going on about, but most films don't get 65% of the domestic take. Most blockbusters are also much more skewed towards overseas grosses.

Coco isn't doing that badly in the US/Canada. It will pass $200M domestic.