kswiston

I think that many on this board are putting too much weight on the AoU > Civil War drop, and are underestimating Infinity War. The Youtube trailer is now past the Force Awakens to become the most watched live action trailer of all time. They are selling the film as the culmination of 10 years of MCU stories, and it seems to be working. If there is a drop off from Age of Ultron overseas, I expect it to be fairly minimal. I wouldn't be that surprised to see it nudge ahead either.

Worldwide Top 10 is long gone. When you add The Last Jedi's well over $1B to the list, #10 is PotC5 at $795M.

I am not one of the people that thinks that IW will get closer to the first Avengers film than to AoU domestically, but I don't see how it misses the Top 5 either. Especially when nothing scheduled is a lock to pass it. IW would have to underperform at the same time that everything else overperforms.

$100M is dead and gone. Even going with Rth's high end, Justice League would need a 15% Sunday drop to hit $100M.

The fact that Justice League is opening in the same ballpark (perhaps $10-20M higher) as Days of Future Past worldwide is pretty crazy.

I'm not seeing $400M+ for The Incredibles 2 (which I think that Han Solo will hit at the low end)

$40M Friday for Justice League is still not enough to get into that $100M range. a 30% bump on Saturday over the actual Friday number ($27) in your $40M projection, and a 30% dip on Sunday, give you $99.7M Given how frontloaded Friday was with previews, even if you go with $40M, I don't see it hitting those holds.

It was midnight on Friday iirc.

$115M would need an internal multiplier of 8.85x. That would be over all of the Marvel films this year, and not too far below Wonder Woman and Logan (which were in the 9.3x range). Seems like wishful thinking. I think that $110M is going to be the cap, and I'm not convinced that sub $100M isn't more likely. We've had a sub-$85M opening with this same preview (The first Hobbit film). The range is wide open for now.

That 30% bump over Friday that I brought up yesterday might not be too high after all! High 20s if Rth is over by a similar amount to his Friday projection.

I forgot about Veterans Day (we have a similar day in Canada on the 11th, but it's being celebrated on Monday in my province). I still don't see it dropping below Doc Strange, but 30% is likely too high.

15% bump on Saturday seems too low for me. Especially since Doc Strange increased 18% and had stronger weekdays (and therefore a smaller Friday bump) proportionally. It probably won't get the >50% bump that the Dark World got on Saturday, but I'm thinking a 25-30% bump tomorrow, leading to something in the high 50s for the weekend. If Rth is undershooting by $500k or more, $60M could still be in play with a 30% Saturday bump.

I was throwing in the marketing as well.

I think that Beauty and the Beast will still end up ahead for net profit. It cost a lot more, but it will be ahead in the box office by $600-700M worldwide. If you figure a $700M gross would have been more than enough for Beauty and the Beast to cover its expenses, you have another whole IT worth of box office gross where the costs are basically zero.

So $70M OW for Homecoming is a done deal now. I don't see Sunday dropping more than 30%

Or, being a sequel to both TWS and AoU, not to mention being in a long established franchise, just meant that people largely knew if they wanted to see Civil War or not before it even released. Non-sequels like IT are more likely to grab viewers who initially wrote the film off for its genre or the trailer if WOM and reviews are strong.

How often is Deadline's initial Friday figure on the money or too high for big breakout films? It feels like they tend to be too conservative on anything that msjorly overshoots industry tracking. Even after we start getting actual numbers.

$200M domestic is dead for Dunkirk. Be happy for $500M worldwide on a WW2 movie that doesn't feature Americans. That's a pretty big accomplishment.

Dunkirk will hit $500M worldwide if it makes it to around $50M in China. So anything over 325M RMB would be good!

Mojo did something dumb with the Chinese total for GotG1 recently. If you look, you can see that they updated it in May 2017 for some reason. I think they took the Chinese total in RMB, and then used 2017 exchange rates to get that USD total (because why not!?). I'm pretty sure that GotG1 was closer to $95M in China back in 2014. It made 595M RMB

It's still a new record for a first superhero film worldwide (even if that record is of no real importance). If us nerds aren't going to keep track of all of these box office records, who will?

Scott Mendelson put out an article predicting that Spider-Man Homecoming would struggle to match ASM1 domestically, like a week and a half before the film hit that mark. He then double downed in a follow up article, saying that while Homecoming passed ASM1 domestically, it was a toss up whether it would pass the adjusted total (a bit under $300M). Homecoming will probably hit $330M. It was clear that it was going to break $300M when he wrote his first article. $14-15M in Japan will put Winder Woman over Spider-Man 1's worldwide total. That's the only goal left that really matters.

Isn't $100M pretty much the MCU floor though? Why couldn't we see $115-120M for instance?

So, around $600M by the end of Thursday. $700M+ by Sunday?

China and Japan have yet to open. I'd have to check, but I think that ASM2 made $125M in both of those territories combined. No reason why we can't expect similar or higher numbers for Homecoming. With China making up for any drop in Japan. I don't see how Spider-Man misses $100M in China, even if the September release schedule is crowded.