kswiston

I'm not sure where my previous post went, but you guys are looking at the chart that only counts new releases for the month. You need to click on the calendar gross tab. Wonder Woman took 31.7% of June. Guardians took 41.2% of May. Spider-man took 23.2% of July.

No domestic film has managed the USD equivalent of that for 8 straight days either.

Online ticket sales might scale older, if by that you mean Millennials or Gen X. But Dunkirk is also going to get the Boomer audience, and I doubt many of them are hitting up Fandango before taking a trip to the cinema. Homecoming's First Tuesday was 29.5% of its opening night (42.5% without previews) and a bit more than 51% of its first Sunday. Dunkirk's Tuesday is over 37% of its first Friday (52% without previews) and about 56% of its first Sunday. I don't think that this weekend will show much frontloading, even if a 4x multi is optimistic.

$20M for the first three weekdays seems reasonable given an international weekend over $70M.

That doesn't really mean anything towards being the #1 studio though. Illumination has those same budgets, but actually makes big money.

That's a pretty big if. WAG biggest worldwide hit is pretty close to "what went wrong?" Territory for Disney/Pixar.

Given what the Amazing films would look like with 2017 exchange rates, this is definitely a healthy bounceback, even if box office enthusiasts continue yo overpredict MCU films.

BOM just looked at the opening weekend number and said "a 55% drop sounds good". Because there's no way anyone could look at that sub $10M Wednesday, look at typical increases in mid July for holdovers, and conclude that $57M was likely. I think it would have required a Thursday drop around 5%, a Friday bump around 70% and a Sat bump around 40% (plus the standard 22% Sun drop).

Spider-man Homecoming has been performing pretty similarly to Spider-Man 2 since Wednesday. Spider-man 2 made another $117M after its second weekend. That gives Homecoming a pretty decent margin of error to still hit $300M+, even if its late legs aren't quite as strong. Nothing wrong with a 50% domestic bump over the last film with Spider-Man in it.

A few weeks back, someone here thought that it would stay in 3k+ venues through next weekend.

Wasnt there a report about older women making up a larger share of Wonder Woman business in later weeks?

Even $20M would be a breakout for a superhero film.

$300M wouldn't even require remarkable legs for a summer film. 2.56x OW. Suicide Squad got to 2.43x OW with a 67% second weekend drop, and less benefit from summer weekdays. If Spider-Man Homecoming can manage at sub-60% drop this weekend, it should break $300M domestic without any problems. Competition falls off pretty dramatically after weekend #3, so I expect Spider-man to have pretty good late legs.

$7.2M overseas for Wonder Woman this weekend (or at least since the last update. I am not sure if Thursday was included in that).

I think he misread the post and thought it was about Spider-man. Wonder Woman has zero chance at $900M.

It's hot outside and school's out. Kids want to see people get eaten by sharks.

I think that the opening weekend was paying for the sins of BvS in part. I don't know what they could have done differently in the marketing to get around that elephant. Still, it was well above what most trackers had it opening to. And in exchange, we are getting to witness the best superhero legs in over 20 years.

I agree that a 3x multi for superhero films of any type is a hard milestone to hit, even if Wonder Woman will end closer to 4x. That said, since 2000, the only July Superhero film to significantly miss 2.5x OW was Catwoman. Even The Wolverine was basically 2.5x OW (2.496x), and the X-Franchise isn't exactly known for its legs.

2.5x OW for a well reviewed MCU film releasing in the summer is on the low side of things. The only MCU films under that mark are the big $174M+ May openers and Thor 2. I doubt Spider-man has the same rush factor as Civil War or Age of Ultron (plus it has summer weekdays). I don't know about $300M total off of a $100M opening, but I would give it even odds of hitting $300M off of $110M OW.

Some of these weren't fudges. Godzilla hit $198M with normal drops, and then got a discount theatre bump near the end to push it over. Hundreds of movies follow the same pattern. Godzilla just happened to be close to a milestone. Edge of Tomorrow was the exact same thing. The Sony examples are suspect because they involve sustained upticks or drastic bumps on films that had been playing for like 3 months. EDIT: Also, Sony kept Spectre playing for an unusually long time for a film that crawled to $200M. Like 6 days short of Jurassic World's run.

@Jason Do you plan on continuing to update this table, or is this a project that you have taken as far as you are interested in taking?

EDIT: Wrong thread!

That's pretty cool. My brother actually has a house in Forest Glade still. He told me that Eastwood and Parkview are closing in favour of a yet to be built new school. I guess the number of kids in Forest Glade has dropped since we were young. I don't know if the 2017/18 year will be Eastwood's last, but you picked a good time to go back and visit.

Yes. If you were in Forest Glade until you moved, we overlapped by a few years. I moved there in 1989.

Forest Glade for most of my childhood. I think I am younger than you though (35)