YM!

That should be grounds for permaban imho

I had another reason added on there in that current malaise over CBMs last year alongside the mixed reception of MCU phase 4/5 but I just don’t think 175m+ is realistic right now. Also, a 120-160m opening is still quite a bit of money and near the lower-mid range and beyond, it takes the record. Shit, even if it does 160-175m, that’s still fucking great. Sure, Deadpool 1 adjusts to 170/195m on the holiday weekend but CBMs were in a different place then and I do think there’s some capacity issues that our box office is still having. Even then, that’s the only real example we have for R-rated openers. I don’t think even with a likely sizable trailer blowup, it’s realistic to gung ho quite just yet.

Yeah sub 100m for DP3 won’t happen barring a botched marketing campaign and truly toxic WOM. Think the range for it is 120-160m which is where the first two opened, leaning moreso towards 130-140m. Not sold on 150m being a lock quite yet but it’s probably our best bet this year. Anything over 175m is unrealistic due to R rating and the MCU currently having brand issues.

Decent roundup this year but there’s a few notes I got: Feel like Leo should’ve gotten Gosling’s best actor spot. Robbie not getting in is surprising considering she was the best performance in Barbie. Lowkey if Ferrera gets the win for the speech and Bassett couldn't that kinda bullshit (think Hsu was the clear choice last year but Bassett deserved it more than Curtis) but think Da’Vine will likely clench it Charles Melton got shafted for Best Supporting Actor Sad Heron or Across didn’t get more than just Animated Feature. Not surprised at Ninja Turtles not making it, gave Lego Movie vibes Lmao Wish got jackshit. It’s joever for WDA rn Wahzhazhe for Best Original song let’s go Moon got fucked over with no Best Screenplay nomination

Thank god Saltburn didn’t get any nominations nor Peaches for original song. Let’s fucking go!

Would Spidey even be ready filming for late 2025? Yeah, dont think 4 movies+3 LA shows is a good idea per calander year. Think the schedule will likely be: 2025: Cap 4 in May/TB in July/F4 in November Ironheart, Wonder Man and Daredevil being shows 2026: Blade in Feburary/SM4 in May/Shang-Chi 2 or DS3 in July 2027: DS3 or SC2 in February/Armor Wars in May/a psuedo Avengers in November 2028: Avengers 5/F42 2029: Secret Wars

Tbh, I think the disappointment in the past MCU projects or even disappoint in GoTG not having much in LaT is morr realistic than IW disappointment. Do think there is clear excitement for Wolverine’s return but I’m not sure even with the seven year wait from Logan if its enough, as The Flash (although not an apt comparison at all as Jackman is wayyyyyyy more relevant than BatKeaton in the modern age) proved that wait time and nostalgia may not be enough. I just don’t think it will be the 450/1B that fans are hoping for, more like 350/800m considering where the MCU and CBMs are at rn. Think like IO2, it and DP3 are the most likely biggest films of the year but everything must go right for them. One little slip can stop either from reaching full potential.

Guardians 3 had no competition on the lead up, and thanks to good WOM legged it to a solid total. Mario was dying down and tbh if it weren’t for the last minute WOM/reviews, it was looking for a sub 110m OW. If anything one could argue, DP3 has slightly more on the lead up. Think Wolverine gives it a boost but it won’t be as big as some fans hoped, Logan was the swan song during peak CBM times and it still did about the same as other X-Men movies and even then X-Men box office wise was never as big as Spider-Man movies. Another boost could be I think the recent CBM cynicism might help the movie due to the comedic satire vs hinder but as of rn, even when the trailer blows up due to fan craze, I still don’t think that we should go gung-ho on OW because of not just the R rating but also I think OW will depend very much on WOM/reviews (don’t think 200m opening was even happening during 2021-2022 hypothetical). Shawn Levy is a good journeyman though so who knows. Thinking around 125-150m OW, the rest depends on legs. Feel like at absolute best, maybe 170m if the marketing campaign is aces/if reviews are raves/if WOM is strong amongst the GA+nerds. A lot of variables need to go right for this to be the behemoth and as of rn, I would rather be realistic than optimistic.

Think an Incredibles 3/Nemo 3/legacyquel Monsters 2 with grown up Boo could do it even with MU reception but yeah 100m would be great. Feeling 90-110m rn.

1. Ratatouille 2. Avatar: The Way of Water 3. Spirited Away 4. Black Panther 5. The Prestige 6. Bambi 7. West Side Story 8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 9. Who Framed Roger Rabbit 10. Coco/The French Dispatch 12. The Sixth Sense 13. Coco 14. Wall-E 15. Beauty and the Beast (1991) 16. PoTC: Dead Man’s Chest 17. Scream 18. The Incredibles 19. Hunchback of Notre Dame 20. The Emperor’s New Groove 21. The Lion King (1994) 22. Princess Monomoke 23. Tangled 24. The Wind Rises 25. Moana 26. Cinderella (1950) 27. Toy Story 3 28. Luca 29. Lilo and Stitch 30. PoTC: Curse of the Black Pearl 31. Toy Story 2 32. Fantasia 33. Monsters Inc 34. Soul 35. Kill Bill Volume 2 36. Turning Red 37. Kill Bill Volume 1 38. Chicago 39. Nightmare Before Christmas 40. Signs 41. The Last Duel 42. Inside Out 43. Prey 44. The Rock 45. The Muppets Christmas Carol 46. Scary Movie 47. GoTG Volume 2 48. Black Panther Wakanda Forever 49. The Menu 50. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe 51. Face/off 52. The Muppets 53. Aladdin (1992) 54. A Goofy Movie 55. High School Musical 2 56. Mulan (1998) 57. Iron Man 3 58. Guardians of the Galaxy 59. Finding Nemo 60. Up 61. Toy Story 4 62. Encanto 63. Howls Moving Castle 64. Jojo Rabbit 65. Unbreakable 66. Captain America: The First Avenger 67. Sleeping Beauty 68. Pete’s Dragon (2016) 69. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings 70. National Treasure 71. Ford v Ferrari 72. Avengers: Infinity War 73. The Princess and the Frog 74. Phineas and Ferb: The Movie: Across the Second Dimension 75. Lincoln 76. Tarzan 77. Enchanted 78. Scream 2 79. Tron 79. Star Wars: The Force Awakens 80. PoTC: At Worlds End 81. Hocus Pocus 82. Wreck It Ralph 83. The Waterboy 84. Spy Kids 85. Return to Oz 86. High School Musical 87. The Princess Diaries 88. National Treasure: Book of Secrets 89. Real Steel 90. High School Musical 3: Senior Year 91. Zootopia 92. Kim Possible: So the Drama 93. Cinderella Man 94. The Lion King 1 1/2 95. Frankenweenie 96. Tangled Before Ever After 97. Ant Man and the Wasp 98. Bionicle: Mask of Light 99. Bionicle 2: Legends of Metru Nui 100. The Adventures of Sharkboy and Lavagirl

Seems like judging from the stories this was probably a Frozen II scenario in which rewrites were likely around late 2022-early 2023.

True but like Austin Abrams has nothing else on his upcoming schedule.

My heart will be double campaign for both Ted and Abbott.

Omg its Stewie and Peter Griffin

Which is why Ghostbusters won't be relevant outside of people who can't let go of 80s nostalgia.

https://deadline.com/2024/01/marlon-wayans-goat-universal-monkeypaw-1235791769/

Solid OW for Mean Girls but suspect bad legs due to poor audience reception. Think the musical surprise hurt (I'm still reminded that my cousin my age lost all interest in Mean Girls when I told her it was a musical and my family didn't care for the stealth musical in Wonka makes me wonder if it'd leg stronger if they were honest) Beekeeper is also doing quite nicely, thinking it could do 20m for the three day if not for the shitty winter storm. Anyone But You is looking noice as it seems likely to do 100m at the end of its run, making me feel maybe rom-coms are back (think the Scarlett/Channing one could be big this summer). Migration’s trek to 100m is in jeopardy with a bad hold but still think it's possible due to the lackluster calendar. In hindsight, weak legs made since with poor PostTrak scores with adults (like worse than Wish). Considering Elemental is the only animation original within the past seven years to do 150m domestic, not feeling too optimistic about animated originals right now even with rave WOM.

Lmao its Ethan from Euphoria

Feel like late March is odd move. The post Easter spot seemed better for both the movie and theaters. It now has to share attention with Dune 2, KFP4 and Ghostbusters (though granted think low to mid 100s is where KFP/GB/GxK are heading), so odd move. It's like no one learned last March.

Never thought I would see the day a romcom got number one again. That's pretty cool.

True. It's also possible they film late 2024 vs the heyday going on currently.

Yeah I'm not sure if he can do all three.

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You know maybe the movie in which only two members has superpowers doesn’t need a 200m budget. A 100-150m budgeted Thunderbolts makes more sense given scale and makes it more likely to be profitable. Considering how the GA has shifted against CBMs last year, a more conservative budget approach for some projects is a smart move. Then again, they didn’t save Shazam 2 or Blue Beetle.