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Barnack

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Everything posted by Barnack

  1. To go in that sense. Ghost protocol had a great reception, Rogue Nation had a great reception (with the plane stunt gathering a bit less traction than the tower stunt I guess) and did less. It seem a very stable franchise at this point, with the last 2 so close together. First trailer was great, space mask stuff imply highering the stake / scope even more so we could see a bump to 220-225. But much more ? It will be hard to have a better reception that the last 2 with their 93% Rotten tomatoes score.
  2. That a very small sample size. Are Last Jedi, Jurassic World 2, Ultron, Infinity War, Justice League, Dark Knight Rises, Catching Fire, Mockingjay Part 1 the only sequel to 150m opener ever ? Performance relative to the previous entry, dbo/ww Infinity War : 145% / 144% Catching Fire : 104% / 125% Dark nights Rises: 84% / 108% Mockingjay Part 1: 80% / 87% Age of Ultron : 74% / 93% Justice League : 69% / 75% Last Jedi : 66% / 64% Excluding Infinity war freak of nature the Average has been to make around: 80% dbo / 92% intl Including Infinity war 89% dbo / 99% intl Dark knight Rises/Catching Fire obviously did very well. Because of how high they were starting from (or achieve in case of Ultron), feel like they also did well Ultron for sure, even MJ part 1 having lost is high concept and trying some new low cost release strategy did well. JL / Last Jedi drop are quite harsher in that group, LJ starting from a phenomenom and still doing over 1.3b is obviously a case were relative drop does not tell all the story like it does for Justice League. Some of those had a bigger China market share were they didn't drop, softening all the rest of the world drop and many of those were historic phenomenom in term of fanbase fidelity like Potter/Lords of the Rings, Could Jurassic World 2 drop end up being similar to Furious 8 range ? Furious 7->8 DBO: 353->226 Os-China: 772->617 China: 391->393 Jurassic World having similar drop would give us: DBO: 652->417.44 Os-China: 791->632 China: 229->230 If Jurassic World 2 would have dropped at the exact same unadjusted for nothing rate it would have made 1,279 billion. Note that Fate 8 was also not received that well by critics and both coming up from over performer for what their previous entry really were, so saying similar to it is not an argument about doing specially good, same goes for the drop looking very similar to Spectre from Skyfall. Those 2 example and Jurassic World 2 are sequel following an obvious peak unfair to expect to be repeated, but with a reception that didn't help retention rate either.
  3. Many with only 1 review with their account, could be someone that wanted to prove that it was not too hard to do.
  4. Does any live action original/premiere concept ever got any close to 100m OW ? There is surprise movies, but surprise OW are rarer, specially anything like a 100m. American Sniper would probably be the closest using limited release to build hype before going wide.
  5. It was so much fun and amazing. Really loved Bayona work there, the camera movement a lot of it was with purpose and the long take was well choosen moment, the locations/production it felt a lot of time like they were shooting actual stuff (except the boat exterior and other a bit of shortcut).
  6. What is the source of that ?, I am a bit curious how can something be factual and not be a more precise number than this, either we know Disney budgeted box office or we do not ? No ? Maybe it was 2 recent big franchise example that we got just before Last Jedi, Spectre and Fate 8 movie franchise also coming from obvious local peak for them. Bond: 1,108->880, without China 1048.77 -> 796.5 Adjusted for inflation 1082.68->796.5 (26.5% drop) Fast : 1,516->1,236, without China 1,125 -> 843 Adjusted for inflation 1,163.5->843 (27.5% drop) Awaken legs were so good than a bit worst than those above outside China could have been reasonably expected Awaken 1.95b outside China adjust to 2.01b in 2017. A similar to Bond/Fast drop of 27% would have push it to 1.266b outside China, I think most expected last Jedi to not do better than Awaken in the China. With the first one legs and Rogue One legs, market even a bit worst say a bit above Rogue one for a 80m China bo. that make 1.266 + 80m = 1.34b, that a 35% dip. Sony had budgeted a 764m performance for Spectre, a 31% drop with an expected grow in China.
  7. First one was apparently the most profitable Universal title in history, it broke many home video and some soundtrack record. Those title can be tricky to predict quite a bit, lot of the JWFK type of movies profit can be going into Spielberg and other pocket, making you right.
  8. That a good question not an easy one, because opening half your budget in domestic alone for a global franchise would be good, but under-performing. For this I think Jurassic Park to Lost World kind of drop was many people expectation with a certain reserve that sequel now seem to not always drop like they did in the past making some predicting more. Jurassic Park did 357m in 1993. Lost World made 229.1m in 1997. 11.1% inflation between the 2. 396.53m adjusted in 1997->229.1m is a 42% drop Jurassic World made 652,27m in 2015 6.1% inflation between then and now. A similar adjusted for inflation drop drop would make it have a 692.37 *.58 = 401m domestic. We should expect worst legs than Jurassic World excellent 3.12, say 2.85 To reach 401m with a 2.85 you need a 140.7m OW. 140m seem like a nice bar to me, with the updated information we have from the rest of the world, this making significantly over 140m would be over performing, significantly under would be underperforming and ok between those ? 35% drop seem to be the common for that movie OW in old markets.
  9. I would imagine systematic for a movie like that, the movie need to pay residual to all the post theatrical windows to every guild member with a credit on the movie and usually people will participation bonus, DC movies have investor's on them . They need to had revenues on the movie sheet if it play on tv. Much simpler if not obligated to treat it like any other movies.
  10. There is always the many Sony TV/Streaming contract that leaked that mention those. It change from market to market (I was just reading a couple of them), in France/Germany they did seem to be using the numbers of admission in those country. In south america they seem to be using Domestic box office, in some market the movie being deemed a classic or having won a major category Oscar will also change the TV contract value. For example that was Sony contract with Netflix USA for Sony animated movies: If you get a 1 million bonus to reach a round number from one client in one market alone and feel your movie will stop a 198.5m domestic, it become tempting to literally bought yourself 1.5m of tickets if you need too (you will get 750k back from them and a nice 250 in profit right there), They pay 32.5% of the first $10m made at the DBO 28.0% of the box office between $10m and $15m 23.5% of the box office between $15m and $25m 19.0% of the box office between $25m and $75m 15.0% of the box office between $75m and $100m 10.0% of the box office between $100m and $125m 5.0% of the box office between $125m and $150m Nothing between 150 and 199.9999 1 million bonus if you reach 200m
  11. All around the world contract seem to still use $100M/$200m dbo has some sort of benchmark, even new stuff like Netflix contract will give you a bonus if you reach them. Some market/deal will take the local box office (france, germany, etc...) some goes by North America bo. They will often have an early TV run for a movie will cost something different it the movie made at the domestic box office: less than 25 million Between 25-50 50-100 100+ All over the world there is different contract with movie shifting category in a lot of different benchmark, 100m is a very common one and one of great value a movie can boost it's world revenues by 10-13m just by reaching it. 200M is a less but still common one. That why you will often see a movie trying to push a movie to a round number type and see many maxing out around the same numbers,
  12. Disney renamed one of their shell co. (IWP3) registered in the UK ROMANOFF PRODUCTIONS UK LIMITED, in march https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/10766358/filing-history I imagine that what they will use for this movie and to get an UK tax credit, maybe we will be able to see the budget in "real-time".
  13. There is room about him being a bad/good guy, when he start talking about remaking a new park right away at the end he goes a bit on the bad side, the fact that he is such a beautiful person outside that terrible ambition flaw make him a complex one and not mustache twirl villain, I doubt many capitalist "villain" think they are, present themselves as such or seen as such by their entourage.
  14. Hum did you find 1933 King Kong premise a clever idea for a movie ? What would proving that the high concept of Jurassic Park was clever could look like ? Maybe pointing out that it was the biggest world box office of all time ? Concept that lead itself to nice spectacle, a very complex movie villain in John Hammond, intriguing what if Sci-fi that plug itself to the nice classic dangerous to play god story meme + the nature find a way/"chaos theory". The different tool used in the first movie to make the very long exposition needed were extremely clever imo, the blocking and production design of the exposition scene, the script/pacing, they were all film school lesson stuff / all time great.
  15. Does it not answer your question then ? I am not sure to follow you. Someone say that it is really hard for a system like this is distributor or at least theater chain are not on board and you ask why does a theater chain system work in the UK ?
  16. I would imagine theater chain are on board in the UK ?
  17. Scope of Lost City was quite epic story over many decades, different continents, etc...
  18. That was from Jean-François Dumas d'Influence Communication, the president of a firm specialized in analyzing media coverage during a radio Interview.
  19. You should change to mainstream news vs mass media, because Internet click-bait is quite massive. Has for your percentage, the coverage was not that much different (nothing like in a Russia election is): Considering Trump got the most coverage ever, in absolute it's amount of neutral or positive coverage was still the highest, specially versus is opponent in the primaries, he plummeted them in positive coverage (and in negative). Anti-Trump but really pro-money, and talking about Trump was money (and the candidate the most talked about on TV since TV is popular always won the presidential election, some thought Trump would be the first exception but no...).
  20. It is a highly union regular job for a lot of the people working on a movie (and most people are not involved in the 3 year's process but just a specific part often not knowing what the movie will be), at least outside hollywood.
  21. It took a long time Green Lantern (2011) (project stated in 97) Man of Steel (2013) (development started in 2008) Batman V Superman (2016), even got an extra year push bacl. Not sure how much fast tracked or an high volume was the issue here, far from a Iron Man 1 hyper rushed make dialogue between shooting days situation. There were rumors of a very rushed Suicide Squad writing (quite special that Will Smith would have accepted that) and Justice League still going on would be an other one, but for those before....
  22. That make sense, the movie division of Fox is probably death if the transaction goes on.
  23. They bought Miramax 60m and sold it 663m 17 year's later, that an excellent 15% ROI even if it would have made $0 over the year, there was great value in that library building they made with it. Most indie/arthouse divisions that surived are profitable (otherwise they would have been closed), just not at an interesting level for Disney ROI wise
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