Legion Again

Day should settle 396-398ish, so I guess it was still pretty predictable from PS after all. Forced me to think about a good technique for handling unexpected PS numbers though, so that’s good. Sun CGV PS is 62k, very expected. Should be ~350k day, 930k weekend. Projection table from there: cume wk % drop wk multi Final admit 12.11 1.41 55.0% 1.82 13.264 12.11 1.41 52.5% 1.90 13.386 12.11 1.41 50.0% 2.00 13.520 12.11 1.41 47.5% 2.11 13.669 12.11 1.41 45.0% 2.22 13.834 12.11 1.41 42.5% 2.35 14.018 12.11 1.41 40.0% 2.50 14.225 12.11 1.41 37.5% 2.67 14.460 12.11 1.41 35.0% 2.86 14.729

Solid numbers for J3. Maybe AM&tW-JL numbers WW

I can’t tell for 100% what is real and what is people goofing off, so just to be clear, no. Given the F13 boost I expect a 3.5 weekend of thereabouts, maybe lower given that the movie is supposed awful. If you were really looking forward to it and hoping it would do well you have my condolences, but at this point it’s a huge flop. Hopefully you find some personal enjoyment in the movie itself.

0.23 1.2 (+420%) 6.26M (+420%, law of dankness) 32.66 (+420%, basic exponential extrapolation at this point) 40.35M

Tbh it was more intended to be a potpourri of deliberately unsatisfiable pairs of opposites than any kind of real mission statement 😛

Pssh, it’s easy. All they want is a fun but thoughtful movie that spends time developing characters but also doesn’t change them too much, that builds upon but also completely rejects TLJ, that respects the original trilogy characters without having them draw too much focus, that respects the PT without trying to pretend it was good, that makes Reylo shippers happy, that makes Reylo haters happy, that’s a conclusive ending but also leaves the door open for more, that finally gives a satisfying answer to mystery boxes without removing them of their mystery or contradicting TLJ, that has real stakes but also doesn’t kill any characters that they like, that gives Rose an actual reason to exist but doesn’t focus on her too much, that makes Finn and Poe a couple but doesn’t do anything gay, that makes Palpatine feel like real threat while also definitively disposing of him at the end. Oh, and that does but doesn’t have Ewoks. I mean really, is that so hard?

Happened to be in Vermont for Endgame, first in US showing. Usually I am 3 hours late

F2 top 3 markets all hate J3, probably why I had such a negative impressive of its prospects. I have been focusing on them particularly recently.

TBF you could equally view it not so much as being outrageously strong on Saturdays as outrageously dead on Mon-Fri, imo. Saturday may be near 200% of Mon+Tues+Wed+Thu, WTF is that? I mean it plays Sat heavy in SK and DOM too but the Sat is like 80-120% of Mon-Th

Jesus fuck. Disaster for the openers there. KO maybe 9M weekend from that, not bad but not great.

I have gotta be honest with you guys — I kept confusing Richard Jewell with Uncut Gems until it was actually December. Never saw a trailer for either, and they both stuck in my mind as “two word small December adult movie that’s related to jewels somehow.”

Yeah, AEG is not safe. This range turned out to be great, as today’s currently looking low 390s or so. That will give weekend around 930k. Mon-Sun week 0 — 4.436M Mon-Sun week 1 — 4.146M (about 300k culture day inflated) Mon-Sun week 2 — 2.115M (-45% from culture day adjusted week 1) Mom-Sun week 3 — est 1.42M (-33%) For EG need 1.82M, is a 2.28x weekly multi, requires 43.8% avg weekly drops. Holidays are coming, and neither Start-up nor Ashfall are doing particularly huge presales. So it’s very easy to see how F2 would get to 14M+, though of course not guaranteed yet.

It’s not just trolls, it’s a small general impediment to use the audience score that people who loved the movie are more likely to bother with than people who were just kind of “meh, whatever.” And the “really liked”:”meh whatever” ratio is the really important one, since most films are actually hated by a very small fraction of GA.

Unverified era. Verified 87 is a lot weaker.

I have been enjoying Kaley Cuoco Harley a lot. Might just be because she gets paired with Ivy and Robbie hasn’t yet though 😛

Jat posts Friday numbers, not numbers for some kind of abominable-violation-of-all-that-is-natural-and-sacred 40 hour “day”

OS-C 27.5 5-day OW to about 15.5 3-day seems alright. In the new markets J2 opened to about 42M in these markets it seems, just scrolling through J2 on BOM, so 60 is a nice bump. But the legs will probably be a lot worse, so 🤷‍♂️

Spiderverse Amazing 8.6x 2nd weekend multiplier. Would guess more 6.5-7.5 for J3. If week is 136% of Wknd like Verse, then a 60% drop next weekend gives a final multi of 4-4.5 or so. I’d consider anything above that to be a good drop.

Bummer, I was a bit interested from the trailers.

Exactly what Menor said. The key to strong cinematic universe benefits is that people view all of your movies as connected. For a variety of reasons, most crucially the presence or lack thereof of successful team ups, people (accurately) view DC films as mostly independent right now. It could beat BOP’s initial estimates of course, but it will need to do so on its own merits and marketing, unlike e.g. Squirrel Girl which probably hits 200M just because of the studio name.

And using my current rough guess of 940k weekend, here’s the projection table for SK: cume wk avg drop wk multi final 12.13 1.43 57.5% 1.74 13.181 12.13 1.43 55.0% 1.82 13.294 12.13 1.43 52.5% 1.90 13.417 12.13 1.43 50.0% 2.00 13.553 12.13 1.43 47.5% 2.11 13.703 12.13 1.43 45.0% 2.22 13.870 12.13 1.43 42.5% 2.35 14.057 12.13 1.43 40.0% 2.50 14.266 12.13 1.43 37.5% 2.67 14.504

Hmm, I just did some quick mental math, let’s look at this a bit more closely. Last weekend Disney estimated 75.5 for SK. KOBIZ has 76.27, but that is an actual and the actuals were a bit higher than estimates across board. So I’ll just take KOBIZ numbers going forward. Last week (7 days, that is) 1.8026M admits, $12.955M, $7.19 ATP. I think the main difference in our calculations is here, where I was using a more recent ATP instead of the full run ATP. So to get to 95-105, is adding $14.2-$24.2M, is a further 1.98-3.37 admits, is a total of 13.34-14.73M. The very high end looks to high for me, but the low end looks reasonable, and I didn’t want to quibble with like, 94-102 or something.

Yeah, I mean it is very low imo too but I my main point is that floors should be low, and 460 wasn’t enough so. Maybe 440 or 445 or something if you prefer.

I approve the SK range, unless it holds like a champ over holidays. DOM floor is way too high though. Maybe 430.