Legion Again

320+520

I was a bit skeptical about Steven Universe Future after the series finale seemed to resolve so much. Rarely does it feel so good to be so wrong.

I didn’t realize there were previews included in that number, but after googling there indeed were some Thursday showings Imagine if it’s 35k previews and 132k True, shot at records would be a lot better. Is Saturday looking weak enough?

I think they will squeeze one of the 3 undated into 2020 after Eternals.

Sadly Oogieloves looks out of reach with Friday coming in 20% (i.e. 27k 🤣) over Asgardian estimates. Doesn’t look to have a good shot at Oogieloves adjusted or Delgo unadjusted either, both low 500k. Now Delgo adjusts to 650k, so 2nd lowest adjusted is totally within our sight 😛

2M likes or bust

Wow, I barely recognized Comer from the first time I watched the trailer. This has people that I like and a premise with some potential, but I doubt I catch it in theaters unless reception is stellar.

DS 96th WW, so in BW’s release spot about 785M would be similar.

This reminds me of the day that Jem had a 9 dollar PTA. That’s like one person per theater.

I agree ~24 OW. x1.67 seems generous

On 00:20 of Day N I record the KOBIS PS, which are now all for day N and forward. Divide CGV PS by a ratio related to the estimated final CGV ratio of the day (a bit higher, since I assume as a main chain CGV has a higher concentration of presale than end of day business) to estimate overall PS for day N. Then you can divide estimated Day N overall PS by KOBIS to see what % went to a Day N, and subtract from KOBIS to see what quantity is for Day N+1 forward. In this case, Sat 00:20 KOBIS was 357k, and with 128k CGV I estimate roughly 265k overall PS for Sat. So about 74% of PS for Sat forward were for Sat exactly, and there were roughly 92k presale for Sun forward. By the time of 00:20 Sun, Sun forward presale are 229k, a growth of roughly 150%. About 95% of them have gone to Sun exactly in the form of 114k CGV Sun PS= approx 217k overall Sun PS. That leaves about 12k right now for Mon forward. Unfortunately, I only added this KOBIS tracking to the sheet starting a bit of the way through F2’s run. If I wanted to use that fact to try to forecast a Mon number before seeing any direct Mon data, I would have to compare to the behavior of F2’s 2nd Mon, and I don’t think that would come out quite right (just for kicks, getting 14k CHV PS and 105k day — Don’t take that too seriously here). The idea is to eventually have a bank of data for KOBIS/overall PS behavior of movies, and then perhaps we can estimate a day or two further ahead for movies in late 2020 or 2021 with decent results.

No, I’m saying that the 3rd weekend was destined for a serious drop since the 2nd was so ridiculous, but since the 3rd is more reasonable there is some room to hope that the 4th weekend drop will be nicer. That said 4th week could also drop high 40s and it would still be on track for an incredible 13M+ admits.

Oof, wow. Final CGV as expected, but an over 48% CGV ratio is surprisingly bad compared to OD, 1st Fri, and Culture Day which all had very similar final CGV. CGV PS at 114k, thinking a 520k day after how Sat went. Would be a 1.37M weekend which is still a respectable 47.5% drop or so, better than things could have gone. I recommend everybody with high hopes wait for an idea of next week.

With just 11.8 PS and less than 3.3x Friday PSm I was honestly considering a small Sat drop.

Jumanji and F2 both doing better than I expected today. Tomorrow PS are more in line with its score.

It’s a 5% better drop than I thought earlier in the week 😛 YUGE 3rd weekend, I mean we are still talking bigger than Veteran and AWTG2 iirc. Roughly 70% over Endgame 3rd weekend, which had spectacular reception. You just can’t expect a great drop here when so much of the country has already seen it and the 2nd weekend was so huge.

Was just about to update. Thing will be at 650k end of the range I gave. 650-660 unless night pace or CGV ratio do something weird. Thinking FSS all about 45% weekly drop, for a 1.4M or so 3rd weekend. Hoping next week can be kind of soft, but we’ll see.

140k/$5 per ticket is 28000 people buying Playmobil tickets today. So, this is... not as hyperbolic as I thought at first O.O

You know, even if Playmobil misses lowest wide opening, this is the rare area where it’s actually easier to hit the adjusted record

Weaksauce. Cmon Saturday.

Oh my god, it might challenge Delgo Also that would be really meh for Frozen, hope we can climb to at least mid 8s.

For now I’ll take 780 F2, 220 250 J3 or theresabout

You read correctly, but I’m being a bit optimistic about legs there. Play window is the standard month, but it doesn’t really matter. 10 days or 100, people will just stop seeing it. Edit: Just to be clear, 25ish is the first weekend not the first week.

Well, on the one hand, yes. But on the other hand, just think of how scene-stealing it was

Not that China serves as a super great indication of DOM, but the details for those who don’t frequent the China section: Jumanji 2 opened with $39M and ended about $78M Jumanji 3 has gotten much worse ratings and will probably open about $25M and end with around the first one’s OW, if not less