Legion Again

Black Panther made the WW top 9, so if you don’t at least shoot for that it’s basically spineless

Yeah, took a closer look later and my average case scenario was just 20M short. 80% range obviously wider than that, so fingers crossed. If it makes top 10 could stay for like 2 years potentially.

But what about Free Guy and Scoob?

The idea that BOP+WW84+TSS+Battinson+Black Adam+DC Super Pets+Aquaman 2 are more “exciting” than BW+Eternals+Shang-Chi+DS2+Spidey3+Thor4+BP2 is transparently contrarian nonsense written for clicks. The latter will have stronger average/aggregate trailer metrics, Domestic performance, overseas performance, and very likely critical and audience reception. And that’s fine. There are still many eventualities where those things are true and the former movies are highly successful, and that’s what people should focus on rather than some unwinnable dick measuring contest. Edit: I should clarify that’s it’s good for individuals to be excited by what they’re excited by, many many many people on the planet will be more excited for the former set of movies, and if the author is one of them that’s all well and good. The issue is with implying it’s true for a majority of folks or in some objective sense, both of which are pretty ill-supported notions.

Re: unopened markets Crude estimation but they should be good for maybe 50-60M is rest do ballpark 900. Venom’s 180-200 from top 11 current markets seems a bit conservative to me, just the top 3 can reasonably be 140+ thanks to how movies perform in Japan. Other 8 had a 48M week or so, so they should add 50-75ish. Maybe 920-980 in my books, but Verrows club still looking dire.

I think April-May for Eternals. Bet we get the F&WS trailer sometime in early spring though.

Is there any chance at all for Jojo to come out on top of those three? I know you guys aren’t directly New Zealand, but you get some peripheral effect, right?

I like Gal as Diana, but Steve, Max Lord, and the 80s setting aren’t really doing it for me. Not enough of Cheetah to say, how she works out probably makes or breaks the movie for me 🤞

Good seeing you back, but I understand the feeling. Ciao for now.

Jumanji opens this week but looks remarkably weak. 8k KOBIS at D-02 Local 시동 (START-UP) opening the week after, 45k D-09. That might put a dent in, but F2 won’t need that many screens by then and looks like very different demos targeted.

Some relatively good news from ROW. Of course comparing opens to opens is tricky when the first was a legs movie in a lot of markets.

4 episode premiere yesterday. 2 a week for the next 3 weeks. Hoping the episode count on the “last season” is like 52

Think we are missing top 10, bummer. With ERs it’s not as bad as it looks, but DOM is underwhelming.

Cmon STX, just give us 666,666. You know you wanna

The Arrowverse is solid relative to the channel it airs on, but tying their high budget streaming war fare to it would have been a disaster.

For those wondering, not a result of a silly Sunday. Sat apparently came in just 16M. Having some doubts about Shrek 2.

7 in 2021 does seem like too much, which is why I expect them to squeeze at least one show up to the relatively barren 2020. WandaVision and Loki have their release dates kind of fixed by whatever their relation is to DS2. Of the 3 later announced shows it seems like Ms. Marvel is earliest in production, might slot nicely into Dec 2020.

??? I see no indication that Hawkeye has been moved from its originally announced schedule or had its production slowed in anyway. Looks like a speed up rather than a swap out.

Huh. It’s 15k, but I’ll still go for 105k here.

Early number 525k, so call it 530k. More normal CGV ratio than yesterday. Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross (Total) Admissions (Total) Number of Screens Revenue Share 1 Frozen 2 U.S. Nov 21, 2019 $3,808,563 ($75,128,159) 525,346 (10,697,866) 1,831 59.87% 2 FORD v FERRARI U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $1,019,667 ($3,441,120) 132,231 (456,116) 925 16.03% 3 KNIVES OUT U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $433,186 ($1,656,512) 58,532 (236,586) 654 6.81% 4 A Little Princess South Korea Dec 04, 2019 $393,177 ($1,716,225) 55,643 (263,328) 691 6.18% 5 Last Christmas U.S. Dec 05, 2019 $266,436 ($1,014,781) 36,323 (143,729) 587 4.18% 6 BLACK MONEY South Korea Nov 13, 2019 $164,949 ($17,207,086) 22,203 (2,428,344) 436 2.59% And here’s updated projection table. Please keep in mind that no HW movie this decade had gotten to 12 before this year. cume Week drops Wk mult finish 10.70 2.12 55.0% 1.82 12.436 10.70 2.12 52.5% 1.90 12.620 10.70 2.12 50.0% 2.00 12.821 10.70 2.12 47.5% 2.11 13.045 10.70 2.12 45.0% 2.22 13.293 10.70 2.12 42.5% 2.35 13.570 10.70 2.12 40.0% 2.50 13.881 10.70 2.12 37.5% 2.67 14.235 10.70 2.12 35.0% 2.86 14.639

I don’t necessarily expect 2nd season of any currently announced show except WhatIf, a long time from now. But maybe a few will. @ZeeSoh, @Darth Lehnsherr, I guess you missed the news out of CCXP that She-Hulk, Ms Marvel, Moon Knight are all on schedule to be wrapped by 2020. At slowest we could see, out of the 8 announced D+ shows, maybe 1 in 2020, 5 in 2021, 2 in early 2022. I would be on 2 in 2020 and 6 in 2021.

Date is atrocious, and numbers drop with every movie (though yeah, probably shouldn’t count Solo for that trend). Maybe it will be a nice surprise with $30, but I won’t be surprised with 2.5% of 550M or something.

With afternoon numbers feeling like I pretty much nailed this one. Would not mind to wake up to a CGV ratio surprise in the opposite direction though.

Witness the new face of cinema

Am I correct that an international thread for this movie doesn’t exist yet? That alone should have let us know we were in for a big drop 🤔