Legion Again

Sun should be good, but 12% seems really aggressive I like that reasoning for F, Sat.

Makes sense, to avoid Culture Day Christmas. Do you know perchance if START-UP will have any more limited sneaks like yesterday and today? Jumanji egg was 92 very very initially, but now down to 85. Not good.

What a hassle, now we have to pay a bit of attention to PS on 18, 19, and 20 to get more of a sense. Or just pay attention to nothing and round to 0.

Jumanji doing great walkups, as perhaps should have been expected. Maybe 125k day depending on how CGV heavy it plays. Here are first 5 days of J2 for comparison: 125k 108k 135k 269k 255k 890k 5-day OW F2 great walkups also, headed for maybe 132 k or so. So a mild increase despite the competition that opened today, and just -26% weekly. Could be in a for a pretty nice weekend if Thursday holds normally and bounces aren’t too muted.

China BO and reception served as a sort of catalyst imo, but my concerns came from a combination of: low DOM presales low DOM tracking terrible China BO terrible China reception very weak SK PS (J2 wasn’t big in SK, but it’s a third market that I understand decently well with very concrete issues) Being a sequel (not to an 80s movie) contributes to worse legs than J2, DOM and OS-C TROS likely being received better than TLJ (regression to the mean) contributes to worse legs than J2, DOM and OS-C Coming out a weak before SW instead of a week after contributes to worse legs than J2, DOM and OS-C Weak OS-C debuts and poor WW-C reception would have been the icing on a disaster cake, but neither were actually a big factor driving my concerns. Basically everything listed above still seems like an issue to me. Even 44*5.5=242 DOM, same DOM:OS-C ratio as J2 gives 287 OS-C, plus a generous 41 China is 570, and that still looks optimistic to me.

The reviews don’t surprise me much and I still think it’s headed to mid 500s or so.

It’s possible but not very likely. That said, START-UP does have more sneaks today, so I have no idea how strong its proper PS are 🤷‍♂️ If it disappoints+this weekend is as strong as I hope for F2, it would it be that outlandish.

It’s possible but not very likely. That said, START-UP does have more sneaks today, so I have no idea how strong its proper PS are 🤷‍♂️ If it disappoints+this weekend is as strong as I hope for F2, it would it be that outlandish.

Without ~$115, with low 120s. SW9 still no meaningful show number for PS, but I’m personally thinking $15Mish.

Does it? WW peak was 17:00 Dec 8, 30 days claims to cover Dec 8 but is unclear about the hour I suppose. Maybe things will look different tomorrow 🤷‍♂️ The larger point is that WW’s box office should be better relative to internet buzz, because of the expected audience composition. The relative internet metrics from first trailers tell very little about how big either will be except to mostly rule out really low numbers.

Uhhh, yeah. Trailers don’t necessarily indicate level of camp. Somebody who’s seen all 160 minutes would have a much better idea.

Not really in a position to answer that part, but locals doing 9M+: 2018 — 1 2017 — 2 2016 — 2 2015 — 2 2014 — 2 2013 — 4 2012 — 2 So, 2019 seems like it’s been a fine and in fact stronger than average year for local biggies to me. Could pick up a 4th in December, which is a very common release month for local biggies.

Extreme Job became #2 just earlier this year. Parasite and EXIT did well too in June/Aug. I think imbruglia mentioned something about 2 or 3 local biggies this winter but I’m not convinced about START-UP anymore. Pass 12M imo. Maybe 12.1ish?

Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross (Total) Admissions (Total) Number of Screens Revenue Share 1 Frozen 2 U.S. Nov 21, 2019 $811,006 ($76,589,597) 123,063 (10,938,995) 1,461 42.42% 2 FORD v FERRARI U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $330,828 ($4,128,561) 48,005 (556,747) 948 17.3% 3 A Little Princess South Korea Dec 04, 2019 $183,394 ($2,065,776) 29,507 (319,583) 683 9.59% 4 KNIVES OUT U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $163,791 ($1,980,324) 24,507 (285,475) 655 8.56% 5 START-UP South Korea Dec 18, 2019 $82,456 ($82,456) 18,717 (18,717) 110 4.31% 6 Last Christmas U.S. Dec 05, 2019 $114,878 ($1,244,192) 17,502 (179,071) 603 6% Damn, off by almost 2k -37% weekly Wed CGV PS flat at 17k, just going to forecast 125k again. Jumanji 3 CGV PS 14k, based on KO and FvF last week let’s say roughly 60-80k today? Seems it will be well behind Frozen for its OW, which might be $4M or so? Jumanji 2 opened to $6M or so 5-day and had unremarkable legs to $13M. Edit: Also, you may notice there were almost 19k limited previews for START-UP. I did not realize those were happening, and it skewed the KOBIS PS numbers for it. If there are more limited previews sometime in the next week it could be skewing the overall PS number further.

Legendary. What is dead may never die.

Nah, we can all agree that. The reaction has been completely fucking ridiculous and overblown. It’s mind boggling and concerning.

Likes are 5.2% of views, seems like a pretty normal ratio though admittedly it’s not a stat I often track. BW 24 hours was 5.5%

Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross (Total) Admissions (Total) Number of Screens Revenue Share 1 Frozen 2 U.S. Nov 21, 2019 $790,819 ($75,841,934) 117,655 (10,815,899) 1,426 44.51% 2 FORD v FERRARI U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $350,454 ($3,800,590) 51,007 (508,708) 947 19.72% 3 A Little Princess South Korea Dec 04, 2019 $164,734 ($1,883,933) 26,093 (290,074) 657 9.27% 4 KNIVES OUT U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $158,347 ($1,817,885) 23,714 (260,945) 640 8.91% 5 Last Christmas U.S. Dec 05, 2019 $112,757 ($1,130,159) 17,334 (161,553) 587 6.34% GGV PS for Tues are up to 17k, let’s aim for 125k admits.

Seem like it will be about halfway between 105 and 135 in the end. Morning was nearly as good as last Mon, but the nights are starting to get really dead. With new pattern the next 3 days should be more dialed in. It’s still a solid drop in low 40s.

Amen Avengers WHATIF? Coming for that 1B Animated OS

When it’s too small/late in run for a Sunday estimate from studio, won’t see an update on Mojo til actuals on Mon — or even later. If Ad Astra had done gang busters in China maybe we’d have had an update today.

The 127 does not include China yet. 130 Club is dead thanks to China, will be like 131-132M or something. RIP in pieces.

*squints* *removes glasses* *sprays glasses* *scrubs glasses* *puts glasses back on* Maybe more like 135k. People are walking up.

Mmm. Trying to hit the top quartile of MCU, in other words.

Dangerous phrase. I agree that trailer metrics are weaker than I expected though.