LegendaryBen
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Everything posted by LegendaryBen
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Weekend Thread | Argylle 1.7 Previews
LegendaryBen replied to Eric Duncan's topic in Numbers and Data
MG dropped 47% from last Friday. ABY will certainly beat it this weekend. -
If Friday number holds, MG may still survive and hold #1 three weekends in a row since NFL championship games this weekend may impact Beekeeper's audience (Sunday drops will be uglier to male-oriented films).
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
LegendaryBen replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
I hope it won't fall below $10m OW -
https://deadline.com/2024/01/box-office-mean-girls-beekeeper-1235806489/ Early Friday Numbers: 1. Mean Girls - $1.85m 2. Beekeeper- $1.7m 3. Anyone But You - $1.5m 4. Wonka - $1.35m 5. Migration - $1m Could Beekeeper take over the top spot? Stay tuned. MG will barely pass $70m. Awesome for Wonka, Migration, and ABY.
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https://the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2024/01/19 Number trickling in. Terrible for Beekeeper. Migration and BITB held very well.
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That has to mean a $3M OW for ABY? If so, that's outstanding and I hope I can leg out a final total of $13M+
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ABY needs to drop on average 10% or less every weekend (not easy, but not impossible) to have a chance at 100m DOM. Luckily, it has Ghostbusters to fudge the number if it's at $98 or 99m by then. Realistically, it should finish above $80m and surpass The Marvels ($84.5m). Still, it does not have anything affecting it until at least mid-February (I imagine Madame Web will only help instead of hurt it due to V-Day's release).
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Not just yet for Migration and Wonka. If they do not stabilize next weekend (it has zero competition for at least the rest of the month), then they are dead. Even though ABY reaching 80-90m is awesome, it still has a chance at 100m. Mean Girls will finish at 70m and Beekeeper at 50m at this pace. Expected more considering their fantastic previews for sure.
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Doubtful is more like it will definitely miss $70m even if it gets many oscar noms. However, PGAs snubbed it. $60M is my final prediction. Meanwhile, ABY held well against the crummy weather and Mean Girls. Bodes well for $100m DOM.
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$11.65m-Mean Girls $6.8m-Beekeeper
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$965,000 for ABY (-7% from Yesterday)
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$50M+ OS = Final Projection at this point
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Mean Girls and ABY can co-exist together. Even though MG has the same audience as ABY, it doesn't have the date night option like the latter. Plus, it doesn't seem that it will have the same legs like the 2004 one. Crossing my fingers it can get to $100m, but at least it will pass No Hard Feelings globally.
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With The Color Purple's unfortunate failure, does this bode poorly for Mean Girls or does this have a lot more going for it?
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30-35% decline (4-day or 3-day weekend)?
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Outside of Anyone But You (which will pass No Hard Feelings before Mean Girls release and may have a chance at 100m), yes.
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Sad for The Color Purple. Even if it has many nominations with SAG and Oscars, that sadly won't be enough to reach $100m.
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Thanks!
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I can't see Wonka missing $200M Domestically. It doesn't have any competition until Dune 2.
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Anyone But You stayed just above $2m Thursday!
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Joy Ride | Lionsgate | July 7, 2023
LegendaryBen replied to Box Office Hit's topic in Box Office Discussion
This looks awesome. Hopefully, this can upset Barbie. -
Thanks for these numbers. That's awesome for TTP if it holds up. $20M OW isn't impossible if it gets a great increase. Anything on Smile?
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and not only that, it could be below $10m next weekend.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
LegendaryBen replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
Plus, worse WOM and it being on Peacock same day could lead it to a sub-$45m OW. I'm on #TeamSmile
