MovieMan89

I still think the two prior SW movies and the two LOTR sequels adjusted are enough of a sample size of huge OWs in December to prove that sub 3x really shouldn't be happening if WOM is good.

Phew, looks like Ragnarok should hit 313m for my 2.55x bet purposes. Was getting a bit nervous after that nasty drop last weekend.

Well I guess "bad" might be a bit strong of a word to use for the legs, but "poor" is certainly applicable. I just can't help but recall a mere two weeks ago when if you suggested a sub 3x multi you were crucified by some for basically suggesting that you were saying the WOM was going to be the worst thing ever for it to go that low. Now all of a sudden its no big deal to get a sub 3x multi to those same people. Means WOM was "neither good nor bad." So you'll excuse me if I'm finding it a bit hard to just let that slide.

Is there really a huge difference between saying it's "not having good legs" and saying "its legs are bad?" Kinda seems like a matter of semantics. I'm sure no one is saying the movie is having toxic Fant4stic WOM for the record.

If we imagine a scenario where ROTK opened on a Friday, it likely could have pulled 100m, which is backed up by a 34m OD on a Wednesday. Now adjust that and it's total and you get a run that looks something like 150/555. That's over a 3.6x multi. Now take out 3D and PLF from TLJ because ROTK didn't have that, and you're talking about something like a 150 vs 200 OW. Hardly a "different stratosphere."

Both LOTR sequels surely would have opened with 80m+ with a Friday release and still cleared 3x without a sweat.

Top 10 CBM sequels: 1. The Dark Knight 2. Guardians of the Galaxy vol 2 3. Thor Ragnarok 4. Days of Future Past 5. Spider-Man 2 6. X2 7. Civil War 8. The Dark Knight Rises 9. Winter Solider 10. Hellboy 2

And that proper perspective would be a sub 3x multi as a December release.

I don't think 300 is the "floor" only because next November and December are so stacked. The one and only thing this really has going against it for being absolutely huge is that its audience could be pretty exhausted by the time we get to this. Nutcracker, The Grinch, Fantastic Beasts, Ralph 2, Spider-Verse then this...how much can the family demo handle in less than two months? The good news is most of those are November, but even still. But I think 300+ will happen as long as reception is really good and I'm still not totally ruling out 400.

GotG2 is subtly amazing and second only to TDK among supehero sequels as far as I'm concerned.

Wait, is someone trying to argue one of the Fantastic Beasts movies is gonna beat DH2's OW? Lmao. Unless there is an HP9, then nothing in that CU stands any chance against DH2.

Actually, reading the first few pages of bad user reviews on RT, a large chunk aren't even of the "childhood ruined" ilk. Lots of them are complaining about weak plot, too boring, weak character development, not following up on TFA's plot points satisfactorily, etc.

So are they kind of dropping the WiR2 from the title? I still don't understand why it wasn't simply Ralph Wrecks the Internet. Sounds much better with the alliteration and also keeps the Ralph and wreck in the title far more smoothly.

It's not counted as a "re-release" because it was still in a few theaters, but it was a re-expansion on the level of a re-release with the marketing push of a big re-release that let it play for much longer and added a lot of money. Had they let it die out naturally, it would have been like 220m. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=starwars4.htm

ESB is an irrelevant comparison because of the nature of how ANH played (a true "first run" would be more like 220m not that 307m #) and saying it dropped on par with AOTC is hardly helping your argument since that's widely considered to be the worst film in the saga, and TLJ had the advantage of coming off a far better received predecessor than AOTC did.

Which further proves that reception is not great even outside of the "devout haters", because its between a trilogy that has a good reception overall and one that has a poor reception overall. The devout haters aren't the only reason there's a huge disparity between critical/audience reception.

I meant in any big film there are going to be that group that tries to bring down the score on user sites. So it mostly all evens out (i.e. film x might have a 85% without that group instead of an 80% while film y might have a 65% without that group instead of a 60%. Film x is still easily the better liked one with or without the trolls. Now maybe TLJ had a more extreme case, but definitely not to the extent that the RT audience score plummeted 20%+ or something as a result. Far too many people just aren't a big fan.

No one is driving down TLJ's user scores that much. Every big film will have a certain chunk of troll votes and cheats on user scores, so it mostly all evens out. Whatever shenanigans a bit more extreme than normal may or may not have happened on RT, I can't imagine the audience score would be over 65% in any case.

Which hurts it for awards purposes though.

Haha, and that was one of the less memorable songs for me. The Greatest Show, The Other Side, and Never Enough were definitely the standouts for me.

I wish about 3 Showman songs could get an Oscar nom, but it will probably just be This Is Me. Which definitely isn't my favorite by any stretch.

They weren't selling it at all, that's why it opened so badly.

Don't know if I can see next weekend being that good, but I'm thinking 10-20% drops could be the norm for most of its run after next weekend. I do have a good feeling about 125. Ultimate fantasy would be 150 and beating Les Mis, which I would just find hilarious and oddly satisfying for many reasons.

Weren't you raving about TLJ back on OW? Lol, poor movie, can't even keep the people who loved it satisfied.

I am really excited to see what happens with Greatest Showman from here, I have a feeling we might be in for a run that makes us think we're in the 80's or something. I think it will drop around 35% next weekend and then post some crazy small drops for the rest of its run.