MovieMan89

You think my unlimited power can't cheat death eh?

Sherlock's CD jump was unusually high among all 2005 and 2011 films of that weekend. As I said, that film had a very depressed opening in comparison to the amount of people who clearly intended to see it. We can hardly say the same about R1. If Kong could miss 100% on CD making 4.5m on CE, then R1 certainly could.

Ok then...but explain to me how 40%+ drops aren't the norm for Xmas Eve Saturdays? All I did was give it a little worse CD increase than normal when it falls on these days because of how much higher the gross will be than anything in a comparable year.

Anyone named Guy is immediately suspect in my book.

You realize 40%+ drops are the norm for Xmas eve Saturdays right? It doesn't need anywhere near toxic WOM. In 2005 and 2011 there were some that dropped closer to 50% on Xmas eve. And keep in mind yet again, none of these films were posting huge numbers so drops should have been lighter.

How exactly is it I've never truly noticed Tele's sig before now? When she opened her eyes at me I about fell off the chair.

I truly don't understand what some people don't get about a movie that made 3m on a Saturday Xmas eve obviously jumping much bigger than a movie that will make 12-15m on the 24th? Again, King Kong is the best comparison we have because it was making more than Game of Shadows. Yet it was still making a mere 4.5m on Xmas Eve Sat and only hit a 94% jump. If that type of a pattern from Game of Shadows to King Kong held, R1 could jump as low as 50% on CD based on how big it will be grossing. I think it will be around 75% personally. Could see something like 22-13-23 for the weekend.

I wasn't considering Hop since it's not animated. It's opening significantly lower than Moana and that is looking for a finish around 250. It could beat Lorax, but we'll have to see how it does this weekend first.

Well this isn't all that critically acclaimed and it's looking very likely it could be their lowest grosser DOM. That said, I'm sure families will like it well enough since it's so inoffensive. But there are a lot of options for them too right now.

AC definitely gonna go sub Warcraft dom.

It reeks of desperation to emulate Pixar and get the acclaim of being a "poignant" and "mature" animated film. Except all the "heartfelt" beats have been done to death in superior ways in the medium. They should stick to what has made them unique and so successful: Looney Tunes wackiness that has a little bit of heart mixed in.

Yes, and no need for them to be something they're not either. I think this movie is them doing that.

Right? Was just gonna come in here and comment what a ridiculous title that was for the sequel.

Yes, but by "differently" that tends to mean worse. You don't think of movies holding better now than they did 10 years ago.

Also remember Game of Shadows seemed to have a bizarrely deflated OW, as evidenced by the completely insane legs that followed. That was one movie people definitely held off on seeing on OW.

Even King Kong didn't jump 100% on Xmas day Sunday, and it made a mere $4.5m that saturday. I say next to no way R1 hits a 100% increase.

It will do around that if it follows King Kong. How do we know a film grossing like 3x as much would be guaranteed to have as good of holds though, even if WOM is great? I'm going with 75-80.

You're baiting me aren't you? I don't see how as low as 50 for the 4 day would be at all possible lol.

Lol @ Deadline expecting R1 to gross 100m over the Fri-Mon stretch. Good luck with that.

I don't know about that. I think in the history of film throughout the entire 20th century, star power was by far the most important factor in a movie's success. People really couldn't have cared less what critics thought pre-internet prominence, as they were widely stereotyped by the GA as crusty old art farts who had no touch with reality. Of course Ebert would be one of the first big exceptions to get people to care about critics, but overall "who's in it" was something that I think was always on people's lips about a new film before the internet age. That's why certain genres like the rom-com have died off, because they were entirely dependent on that superstar name that doesn't quite exist now. I think that toxic WOM has always mattered, but it seems like in a decade like the 90's certain actors could open virtually anything to a strong start and have a lot more bend with audiences in terms of actual film quality.

Leo is a draw, but people tend to undermine how sharp his talent is for picking the kind of roles and films people will want to see him in. In the off cases he doesn't (J. Edgar, Revolutionary Road, Body of Lies), his star power hasn't meant much. I think he kind of lucked into Revenant being the success it was, due to the "give Leo an Oscar" narrative that consumed the entirety of last season's award stretch.

If you've seen DDL in My Left Foot, Redmayne in TTOE is simply reductive.

Using King Kong's second weekend holds when Xmas fell on the same day, R1 would be headed for as low as 57-58m this weekend.

I'm fine with Moana's drop. I say let it get hit hardest Wed and then bounce back big for Xmas weekend. The holds so far have already provided more than enough proof WOM is great, legs will still be there.

Dropping a big MEH off for this here. Illumination auditioned to be Pixar and appeal to adults, but hit flat notes the whole time. Not bad, but just very "who cares?" The "big, fun, entertaining" final act some of the critics actually had me hyped for was...I guess the best part, but I'm not sure what they watched to be so enthusiastic? The A.D.D. zany comedy of SLOP>>>> Just stick with Looney Tunes Illumination, you're kind of good at it.