MovieMan89

My range for IDR was always 175-215 before the pre-sales indicated zero buzz whatsoever. I thought it could at least ride the 4th Holiday wave and advantage of being the only real live action blockbuster on the slate between Apocalypse and Ghostbusters. Never ever did I expect a breakout above that range though.

I still hold there is nothing "iconic" about the original ID4, which is a huge reason this sequel was never going to work as a nostalgia hit. The first is a total product of it's time, a true example of a movie that would have never been half as successful if released in any other era. It's the definition of a standalone success. I don't even think audiences would have cared about IDR in 2000. Again, its popularity is forever stuck in '96.

Again, I fail to see how that is remotely possible. Me thinks Deadline and Variety are just pulling typical second weekend drops out of their butt w/o a Friday number and w/o paying attention to Dory's weekdays.

It's literally impossible for it to go lower than that. Would have to have some of the worst Friday and Saturday bumps ever.

Lmfao, people were predicting 400+? Seriously, that's insane to me. Regardless, IDR squeaking past 100 would still be a mega disappointment like you say. And it's unlikely to happen either. Multi will be 2x bad and I doubt that OW stays above 45.

Wow, with the unappealing new releases, I honestly wouldn't be shocked to see Dory go as high as 90m now for the weekend. And next weekend's hold should be insane too. 550+ could happen now.

So we're arguing when your range is not that far off from my 325-350 range?

Minion's multi was perfectly acceptable though for a 115m+ opener in today's market. It didn't imply either great nor toxic WOM. Angry Birds for example is getting a worse multi with a fraction of the OW, and I don't see anyone claiming toxic WOM there. Which further's my argument that the film was primarily seen by kids, hence why the WOM wasn't toxic. They liked it.

Minion's marketing annoyed the hell out of most adults I know.

I find it incredibly hard to believe that demo went to see Minions, and that made 300m+. There are more than enough kids in this country to drive a movie to that mark.

I don't believe for a second the series was ever hugely popular with the adult w/o kids demo in the first place, and I think Minion's huge success proves that.

When you get hordes of kids wanting to see something, it doesn't matter much what the parents think at that point. They'll cave/send the older brother or sister.

I would agree it's decreasing for sure if not for the weak competition and the masterminds over at Illumination's marketing team. If any team can create a whirlwind of hype for a movie, it's them. Give it like a 20-25% chance of increasing over DM2.

That film is one of the greatest freak anomalies of box office history though. Hardly a good comparison. Especially since modern DWA has nothing over Illumination in terms of appeal. 325-350 is my current range for DM3, but I think it can go higher given marketing and reception. Yes, but those are a full month later (and I can't see a Blue Sky film posing much of a threat). It will have made the bulk of its money by then regardless of how big those two are or aren't. Cars 3 is its only real competitor, and I have to believe it will be a weak one.

The sad thing is I went from initial predictions of 400ish for CW and 500ish for Dory in the game to my final predictions of 555 for CW and 435 for Dory.

More importantly, Minions isn't even disliked among kids, aka the demo all Illumination films thrive off of. Kids will beg their parents to go see DM3, even if the parents are dreading it. Which they might not even be, since the DM movies were definitely liked outside of kids.

The ceiling for Captain Underpants has to be like 150 and the ceiling for Cars 3 has to be 250 (200 might even be more accurate). That's it for animation for the summer. DM3 could easily hit 400 if it's well liked. We already know it will be well marketed, that's for sure. But then again Ethan, I'm fairly certain it was you arguing that 250 or something was like the absolute ceiling for Minions right up until the bitter end last year.

Not to mention next summer's animation slate is one of the weakest in recent years. Cars 3 is its only big competitor (lol, yup). Given that, an increase over DM2 isn't at all unlikely.

Dory may very well become Pixar's biggest first run admission seller ever now. Incredible after 20+ years of massive hit after hit. Now why the hell didn't I leave my initial 500m prediction for it in the game alone?

Yeah, I was torn about adding Pi. I thought the 3d was certainly very nice in it, but not quite of the "enhancing" variety like the other 3 I mentioned. I don't really remember Prometheus' 3D, so either I didn't see it in 3D or didn't think much of it.

Part 1 ~ answer yes/no unless otherwise stated (UOS) and are worth 1000 points each UOS. They also only refer to the top 12 UOS. 1) Will IDR open to more than $40M? YES 2) Will IDR open to more than $50M? 2000 NO 3) Will IDR open to more than $60M? NO 4) Will Dory make more than $57.5M? YES 5) Will Dory make more than $65M? YES 6) Will Dory make more than $72.5M? YES 7) Will IDR finish above Dory? 3000 NO 8) Will Free State of Jones Finish above The Shallows? NO 9) Will Neon Demon open in the top 7? 2000 NO 10) Will Central Intelligence drop more than 50%? NO 11) Will Warcraft stay above XMen? NO 12) Will Turtles stay above Alice? YES 13) Will Me Before You have a PTA above $1150? 3000 NO 14) Will Swiss Army Man have a PTA above $3,500? NO 15) Will Angry Birds stay above Zootopia? 2000 YES 16) Will NYSM2 stay in the top 8? YES 17) Will The Conjuring finish above Neon Demon? YES 18) Will Jungle Book Remain in the top 15? YES 19) Will 3 new entries be in the top 4? 3000 NO 20) Is Will Smith going to save the world this weekend? IS JADEN SMITH ACTUALLY TALENTED? Bonuses 15/20 - 2000 16/20 - 4000 17/20 - 6000 18/20 - 9000 19/20 - 12000 20/20 - 15000 Part 2 ~ The closest predictor for each question scores 5000 UOS 1. What will Free State of Jones' OW be? 7.425M 2. What will be the difference between IDR and FD's weekend totals? 44.750m 3. What will Warcraft's percentage drop be? 80.150% Part 3 ~ predict which film finishes in the places given. (2000 per film) 1. Dory 4. Shallows 7. NYSM2 10. Alice 13. Civil War 15. Jungle Book Bonuses: 3/6 ~ 2000 points 4/6 ~ 5000 points 5/6 ~ 9000 points 6/6 ~ 15000 points

The shortlist of worthwhile live action 3d remains: Avatar Hugo Gravity

I think the likes of Zootopia, Jungle Book, and CW more than took care of that already.

Doesn't surprise me, since it's only been masters of the medium like Cameron and Scorsese to get live action 3D right in the past.

I'm not assuming that, if anything I'm still expecting Pets to be huge. Just saying the level of animated blockbusters this year is turning out to be unprecedented.