MovieMan89

Good grief I still went ridiculously high on Spectre WW. Practically all of us went over 1b though...

I don't think Peanuts or Deadpool should count, but again it's Chasmmi's game.

It's Superman syndrome. Superman Returns suffered from the pre-release overpredictions even worse than MoS did (I remember some actual box office analysts predicting 500+ DOM for it that year). Granted this time Batman is involved, so that does give an advantage especially OS. But Snyder is at the helm, so that kinda cancels some of that advantage out since you know WOM is likely to be lackluster. BvS will merely be a supersized OW version of MoS at the B.O. DOM. OS might be different, but thinking about it I'm not sure why I just predicted $1b+ in this thread for it? 850-900 is much more likely I think.

Well then we better see a big bump for Spectre on Wednesday.

Skyfall fell 52% on Monday after a way bigger OW. Spectre's Monday drop is just a few percent better than QoS and its holds through the weekend were similar too. I see no reason so far to expect a multi that's really any better than that movie, especially with the upcoming competition. This weekend will be the real test. It has zero competition, so if it is going to hold remotely well through its run it should be falling at least under 55%.

I was legit shocked at some of the people who are in it when I looked it up earlier. Again, I seriously had not even heard of it until today. Same goes for All American or whatever. I don't even know how to predict these two. It is extremely rare for me not to have even heard of a wide release the week of said movie's release. At least the likes of Burnt, Scouts, Crisis, and Jem I had known of.

I'm gonna be like 100m too high on Spectre and that's after I went significantly down in predictions for it right before the game started.

Kind of reminds me of some of the people on this board going "it was supposed to lose half of its audience from Skyfall!"

It is crazy that 400m is basically the bare minimum to have a shot at cracking the WW top 20 now. Kingsman or Home is likely going to take the 20th spot this year.

But Spectre making 800m WW isn't even going to be a big victory with that out of control budget. They got really, really lucky is all.

It already is. With actuals the movie just had the same horrid Sunday drop as QoS. Not to mention QoS had virtually no major competition in sight that year. How exactly is Spectre supposed to fend off MJ2, TGD, Peanuts, Creed, and SW and not take a hit?

And probably nearly 100m more with marketing added in. But it's OK, it's going to make a $50m profit. Nothing went wrong here, move along.

And is there a particular reason why we're combining OS and DOM? We tend to separate them for everything else on this board. Otherwise we would always just be referring to WW when we talked movie grosses. Clearly that's not the case.

If TFA makes 650m WW (enough for it to be profitable) should I expect not to see a WWW thread either?

Because I have not now nor ever been referring to the film as a money losing bomb. The threads are called what went WRONG. Not why did it lose money/bomb. Something went wrong domestically. Period, the end.

Of course Skyfall was an outlier, who argues that? Doesn't change the fact that Spectre is an outlier in the complete opposite sense. Stop trying to justify the film's DOM performance as if something didn't go awry people. It would be the exact same as arguing something didn't go remarkably right for Skyfall, yet I don't see anyone arguing that.

Make sure you're taking a solid 10m off for Imax. That leaves Spectre with maybe 165m. Seems like an outlier to me.

The big exception being that this is Pixar, the king of animation WOM. So I would expect the 5 day share to fall in that lower 30% range. It should be able to top IO if it opens to 110m.

No it's not. It's asking what went wrong with the film domestically? Why did such a long stable franchise DOM take a nosedive 3 decades into the past? And even addressing OS, why is it decreasing so much from SF there? How does this bode for the next film? If they can't curb costs will they lose money on the next one? There is a lot to consider here.

Spectre has taken the franchise to lows domestically that all of the 1990's and 21st century films worked hard to stay away from. Somebody tell me how something didn't go wrong?

This is not STID all over again DOM. That movie failed to meet our expectations, however it was still in the top third biggest successes in its franchise and only decreased around 20% in admission from it predecessor. That is a huge difference from being in the bottom third of your two dozen film franchise and decreasing 40-45% in admissions from its predecessor. I agree, a WWW thread OS would be pretty silly, but something totally went wrong DOM.

I can see your point on waiting for legs sometimes before calling disappointment, though it just seems unlikely for legs for Spectre to be anything good with the reviews and the competition. WWW threads however are merely asking what went wrong with a movie's performance. They are not asking why a movie bombed, so I don't think they always need to be exclusively addressing bombs.

The money spent is ridiculous, but I can't say they were totally unreasonable to let it go that high. There was ZERO reason to expect this film to be grossing under 900m WW like it likely will now. Even if it were trash, the rules of OS gross say it shouldn't have mattered.

HA! Some revisionist history. The studio would not have spent 300m+ on the film if they weren't expecting an easy $1b+ WW gross. And as far as this forum goes, I point you to the winter game. All DOM predictions were over 235m and all WW over 900. Most were 275+/1b+. It in no way, shape, or form lived up to the forum's expectations on the whole. It is only the last week or two when tracking looked poor and the reviews came in that everyone lowered expectations.

I guess if we're defining WWW threads as being strictly for bombs, then I agree it is unwarrented for Spectre. I could sure swear plenty have been done for underperformances though, not just bombs...