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Streaming does't help a movie being culturally relevant, that's for sure. Imagine Barbie or TGM as a Netflix movie... Films such as Glass Onion, Leave the world behind or Extraction would have generated stronger impact as theatrical releases. What would have happened if Society of the Snow would have opened in theaters?

So 9M previews + 2M EA? Nice!

70-80M OW for Dune Part 2 was expected and it's undoubtely great. I crossed fingers it could jump a bit higher to help theaters after a dismal February, but still a nice start for the month. In the end, Dune was never the kind of franchise GA would be eager to see ASAP. Also, the long runtime could have impacted previews walkups. Not easy to find time a normal Thursday to watch a 165 minutes film!

The closer we are to Dune 2, I am more confident it can confortably reach more than 300M DOM. 90M 1st weekend 35M rest of week 50M 2nd weekend 20M rest of week 35M 3rd weekend 14M rest of week 25M 4th weekend 10M rest of week 50M+ for rest of run

Bolded the final results of February. Looking at March, I would say 600-700M is the range. In 2023, the gross was around 640M. Openers (500-575M) Dune part 2: 180-190M Cabrini: 30-40M Imaginary: 35-45M Kung Fu Panda 4: 90-100M Arthur the King: 40-50M One Live: 5-10M Ghostbusters: 70-80M Godzilla x Kong: 40-50M Rest of openers: 10M Holdovers (100-120M) Bob Marley - 35-40M Ordinary Angels: 20M Madame web: 10M Chosen: 5-10M Oscar Expansions: 5-10M Rest: 20M

The Little Mermaid

Proof that there is a huge & dormant audience out there for the genre, waiting to come back to theaters for the right film

Well, this was a good teaser, given they didnt have many time after filming. Missed a bit the bloody images of previous DP and Wolverine. I hope they keep the R-rated tone

Smart move! Trailer is effective, underlining the right things: good cast + fun factor + many twisters. This should be a strong hit

With the sequel, we will witness the first level 6 tornado ever

When does the review and social embargo end for this?

It looks like January 2024 will close around 475M, slightly better than expected. February, I would say 350M at the most, unless Argylle or Madame Web surprise. Argylle: 60-70M The Chosen: 25-30M Madame Web: 50-60M One Love: 30-35M Lisa Frankestein: 15-20M Drive Away Dolls: 10M Demos Slayer: 10M Ordinary Angels: 5M Rest of openers: 10M Oscar Expansions (Poor Things, American Fiction, Holdovers, Oppenheimer, Killers...): 30M Rest of holdovers: 50M (Wonka, Migration, Mean Girls, Anyone but you, Beekeeper...)

Still, Barbie could very well win Best Adapted screenplay.

Are you comparing EEAAO with Barbie? Both look and are very different movies! It's hard for me to imagine AMPAS being concerned with a few tiny similarities. In the end, Moonlight, Shape of Water and Green Book dealed with intolerance and all of them won back to back to back. Anyways, 1917 lost best picture not because of Birdman being a one-take. It lost because of Parasite's great strengths and because, besides this one-take wow factor, it lacked a bit of substance. It's like saying Roma lost BP because it was a white and black film and The Artist already was and won BP some years before.

Barbie's screenplay is the likeliest place to honor Greta Gerwig's vision and career. With AMPAS we cannot rule out timing, buzz, story and momentum. Gerwig is on fire, she is an actress and thus has a strong support from this branch, Barbie is a phenomenom, and the theme of this movie is timely. I am not saying it will win, but it's just more and more probable with every day.

Barbie is clearly in contention or leading in these categories: Best Picture Best Supporting Actor Best Original Screenplay Best Costume Design Best Production Design Best Song

I am also beginning to think Barbie is a viable and probable BP winner. Impact still is there, after months. It's such a wild and unique film that will have a strong support from actors, guilds and producers.

What's the problem there? It's a film connected in spirit with 1996 movie. Just that. The people involved want to distance it from the source material because they think it's more than just a remake. Regarding no original cast returning... Who cares? The real protagonists of that movie were the twisters. I know my prediction is very high. Twisters BO is a wildcard, but I perceive catastrophe genre has been dormant for years and it's about to come back soon with a blast.

I would compare Maestro with Mank. Both reverred bipics related to Hollywood, both black and white cinematography, both with industry favor, both from Netflix, both with comparable reviews by critics... and both meeting lukewarm audience reception. In a couple of weeks, both will be BP nommed.

Deadpool 3 - 375M DOM / 1b WW Despicable Me 4 - 325M DOM / 950M WW Twisters - 320M DOM /1b WW Inside Out 2 - 300M DOM / 850M WW Mufasa - 275M DOM / 900M WW Gladiator 2 - 250M DOM / 700M WW Joker 2 - 225M DOM / 650M WW Dune 2 - 210M DOM / 640M WW The Fall Guy - 190M DOM / 490M WW Furiosa - 175M DOM / 450M WW Venom 3 - 165M DOM / 550M WW Godzilla x Kong - 160M DOM / 450M WW If - 150M DOM / 420M DOM Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - 145M DOM /400M WW Bad Boys 4 - 140M DOM / 400M WW Ghostbusters - 140M DOM / 350M WW Beetlejuice 2 - 130M DOM / 310M WW

What would be nommed if there were still a 5 BP field? Killers of the Flower Moon, Barbie and Oppenheimer would be locks for sure. But then, there would be a great fight for the last two spots. Holdovers, Poor Things & Maestro concerned with possible surge for Past Lives, American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest and May December. What a bloodbath we would have witnessed! I miss those times

The conection to original cast was not necessary to capture interest. It just needs to deliver with what is promised: a good dumb disaster film. I think this will be one of the biggest BO surprises of the year, DOM and OS. I see many things on its side. - Brand recognition. After the 1996 hit, audience knows what to expect. - GA usually goes for these kind of guilty pleasures. - Many time has passed since the last catastrophe spectacle. - Many kids remain fascinated with the destruction force of twisters. - Fresh faces with surging career. - Great release date.

Wonka and Trolls will also be so close to join 100M club after Boxing Day. Migration/TCP/Aquaman also strong chances to become 100M+ grossers. Not that bad. This December reminds me a lot to 2010 & 2011. Neither had a huge tentpole but still had some healthy runs. Both years also had no new 100M grossers by Boxing Day.

A mix of both. I really like Elemental, Boy and he Heron and Society of the Snow. Oppenheimer is also quite solid, but not my favourite this year. Not a fan of Killers of the Flower Moon score, but it's a major Oscar contender and the score is distinctive, so I can picture a probable nomination. I have already listened May December (solid), Wonka (very likeable) and Boys in the boat (meh). My predictions remain the same, with May December, American Fiction, Spiderverse and Poor Things as potential nominees. With still an eye on Williams' Dial of Destiny, because: a. Last score of a legend! b. Helena's theme is so beautiful, one of the best pieces of the year.

We can listen many scores now. I would say: Oppenheimer - Ludwig Goransson Elemental - Thomas Newman The Boy and the Heron - Joe Hisaishi Society of the Snow - Michael Giacchino Killers of the Flower Moon - Robbie Robertson Potential spoilers: American Fiction - Laura Karpman Across the Spiderverse - Daniel Pemberton Past Lives - Christopher Bear and Daniel Rossen Poor things - Jerskin Fendrix Still have to listen to: May December - Marcelos Zavros Boys in the Boat - Alexandre Desplat Ferrari - Daniel Pemberton Zone of Interest - Mica Levi Wonka - Joby Talbot