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catlover

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Everything posted by catlover

  1. catlover
    No, admission-wise it dropped 36% on Sat, 15% on Sun, 25% on Sat+Sun. But since Toho had a discount day on Sunday, it dropped bigger gross-wise, hence the 30% drop.
  2. catlover
    Dude, it literally said that Aladdin made ¥491m for the 2-day weekend, which means a 30% drop. Where did you get this 15-17%? With 30% drop, a ¥9.5b total as of Sunday makes more sense. Which means, Monday is included in that ¥9.8b total.
  3. catlover
    But Corpse always gives us the actuals for the whole top 10. The official reports give us details only for the no. 1 movie and the new releases that week. For example, they reported detailed numbers for TS4 and the new Pokemon movie, but only gave Aladdin's total as "over ¥9.8b", without giving us the exact number. I actually think ¥9.8b+ is through Monday, because it looks too high for a total through Sunday. Also, they released the numbers on Tuesday, so if Aladdin had crossed ¥10b on Monday, they would have said it. But they didn't, so it hasn't happened yet. So Olive is right. And that ¥491m IS actual number. It did drop around 30% on the 2-day weekend. Which means Corpse's forecast for Aladdin was really close to the actuals.
  4. catlover
    That is so true. Been following Japan box office for years, and this is my main complain. No box office numbers reporting system whatsoever. We rely on people who either have access to the data, or make the system themselves (like corpse or that daily numbers blog owner).
  5. catlover
    I'm very happy with Aladdin's crazy run, but at the same time sad that TS4 couldn't reach its potential because of that (at least one of the reasons).
  6. catlover
    Wow! Inflated or not, that is a crazy number for TS4! Definitely waaay better than I expected. So looks like we will get another ¥10b+ and $100m+ grosser. Well, Japan was more Pixar than WDAS, until recently. In fact, before Frozen, Dinosaur was the highest grossing WDAS movie with only $40m.
  7. catlover
    Okay, I knew it's gonna be bigger than usual, but I didn't expect it to be this big. 412k at 9pm? That is insane. I'm excited about its performance. I'm curious about TS4's receptions there. I hope it's gonna be another ¥10b grosser this year.
  8. catlover
    Also context, on the 14th which falls on Sunday this month, tickets are discounted at Toho Cinemas. On top of that, Monday (the 15th), is a public holiday. So while it is great, this Sunday's admission number is heavily inflated.
  9. catlover
    I don't know about Euro, but in Japan, TS3 made $126M, which is only about $100M with today's ER.
  10. catlover
    I would LOVE all of that to happen. But, Frozen 2 - $198M - unlikely, but not impossible TLK - $171M - more like half of it A - $124M - likely, but I'm afraid TLK will kill its late legs TS4 - $101M - also likely
  11. catlover
    But why? Everyone else expected TS4 to open bigger than Pokemon. Pokemon movies have been decreasing lately, making only ¥2-3B total, sometimes a little bit more. While TS3 made ¥10.8B. To meet in the middle, Pokemon has to double its previous movie, and TS4 has to make only half of TS3. That's not gonna happen.
  12. catlover
    Breaking the imported animated film 2-day OW record is very likely, which means it will be above TS3's OW, in yen of course. The question is, will it be the first imported animated film to cross 1B yen for the 2-day weekend. It will, if it continues to perform like this.
  13. catlover
    Ah yes, 2003. The peak of Hollywood movies in Japan. It actually had five 10B grosser in the span one year! Matrix Reloaded (June), Bayside Shakedown 2 (July), Finding Nemo (Dec), The Last Samurai (Dec), Return of the King (Feb 2004).
  14. catlover
    I don't know. We had Aladdin and Rocketman. TS4 is actually doing great. FFH's performance is fantastic so far. Yesterday also opened higher than expected. Doesn't sound that depressive to me.
  15. catlover
    I was wondering that too. Frozen 2 is in November with no other strong competitions until Star Wars one month later. So I think it will be okay. We can't say the same about Weathering with You. Now that Aladdin is going to cross 10B yen, I think there are still 3 more movies with the potential to do the same this summer: TS4, Weathering with You, and TLK. TS4's OD is promising (11% above Aladdin's OD at the usual place), so 10B is still possible. But if TS4, Weathering with You and TLK all do that, we will have four 10B grossers in the span of only 3 months. That never happened before, not even in a year. Not to mention there's the new One Piece movie that could do 5B+ yen. So I'm afraid at least one of them will underperform.
  16. catlover
    Yeah, basically those predictions are based on Finding Dory that decreased a lot from Finding Nemo. Also, TS3 had reached near the maximum height of Pixar movies in Japan. So to match or top that would be really difficult. Interestingly though, Monsters University made almost as much as Monsters Inc.
  17. catlover
    More than 1.8B yen, but we don't know how much more. Estimates put it at $17.3M and I think it's gonna be close to that.
  18. catlover
    Looks like Aladdin did drop a little bit higher, around 20% to ¥699m. But the total is still in line with projection.
  19. catlover
    Not sure about Black Widow, but yeah, some movie next year will definitely beat FFH's OW or even CM's.
  20. catlover
    3rd biggest OW of 2019 in Indonesia, after Endgame and CM. Which is also the 3rd biggest OW of all time. I believe the 4th one is also a 2019 movie. I hope FFH can survive TLK and be the 3rd movie ever to cross $20m after Endgame and IW, something that CM wasn't able to do.
  21. catlover
    Btw according to reported estimates: Aladdin - $79.2m FFH - $17.3m Corpse's forecast on the totals for both movies are pretty spot on. Maybe he got the weekend numbers correct too, and Aladdin didn't drop as big as it seems?
  22. catlover
    First of all, Pixar movies (especially Toy Story movies) usually don't do that great in the first place in most Asian countries, compared to LA and Europe. But TS4 still increased from TS3 in Asia, so how can you say Toy Story is not as popular now? Secondly, Pixar movies generally do better in Japan than the rest of Asia. You know that TS3 made ¥10.8b, right? That's about $100m with today's ER. So judging Toy Story's popularity and performance in Japan based on other Asian countries is just wrong. Thirdly, yes I think it will decrease in Japan to maybe $70m. But it is still huge! Waaaay more than whatever Pokemon is gonna make. So yeah, I don't really understand your argument.
  23. catlover
    Only like, less than $1m lower than CM. And CM had a public holiday in its opening week. With better WOM and school holiday kicking in, I can see FFH having better legs and beating CM in the end. But again, the difference will only be like $1m or so. It doesn't really matter.
  24. catlover
    Wait, what? Have you seen Dawn of and War for the Planet of the Apes? Considering those movies, that statement sounds so wrong.
  25. catlover
    What past history? Do you think after making $180m in its first 6 days (albeit inflated), it will only make $170m for the rest of its run? I think the WOM's gonna be great and it will end up with at least $380m total. Right now I'm even optimistic about $400m.
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