peludo

Presales for Your Name are on par to Moana even coming 7 days later. Fantastic Beasts this week and Your Name next one are too much competition. I do not see big things for Moana in China...

It is being a so funny (and incredible, of course) run to follow...

Sorcerer's Stone: €7.3m Chamber of Secrets: €7.0m Prisoner of Azkaban: €7.8m Globet of Fire: €6.7m Order of the Phoenix: €4.93m Half-Blood Prince: €3.9m Deathly Hallows I: €5.7m Deathly Hallows II: €6.1m

Billy Wilder: The Apartment, Sunset Boulevard, Double Indemnity Alfred Hitchcock: Rear Window, North by Northwest, Vertigo Francis Ford Coppola: The Godfather I, The Godfather II, Apocalypse Now I could do the same with maybe another 15 or 20 directors. To choose just 3 is really hard.

Top 5 weekend: 1. Fantastic Beasts: €4m 2. Arrival: €1m 3. Trolls: €0.9m 4. A monster calls: €0.4m 5. No culpes al karma: €0.4m Fantastic Beasts has set the biggest OW of the year so far, over Pets (€3.9m) and A monster calls (€3.6m).

Moana is not Pixar, but WDAS. And last WDAS film did $235m in China...

You are right. I used a x2.5 multiplier being conservative. It is probable it can go closer to x3 than to x2.5. However, I would not use DH2 to compare. It was released in July. The latest HP film released in November was DH1. And it had a x3 multiplier if do not take into account Japan and China. But DH1 had low competition (Tangled, Tron Legacy, Little Fockers). And considering that films tend to be more and more frontloaded, I still have to see that FB is able to reach x3 multiplier from current markets.

I agree with that $500m target. 140-150 from China+Japan should be attainable (just let's hope there is not a disaster in Japan like happened with Hobbit). And that asuming a x2.5 multiplier from current markets. Who knows if WOM can be even better and it can go beyond that mark. Pretty solid result, IMO.

Really? well, I am glad you love it so much. I like it, but it does not thrill me.

For those who do not know Spanish, titles are: 1. Fantastic Beasts 2. Arrival ... 5. A monster calls ... 9. Our kind of traitor The unknown (#4 and #10) are local films.

That is the key, IMHO.

Do not worry, buddy

Sure. I did not even remember to have posted that message. The difference is that China had just met its new top grosser ever when I posted that. The market has slowed down A LOT since then. And I sincerely thought that Hobbit behaviour could be a good reference for Harry Potter, since LOTR and HP did similar figures in 2002-2004 and because DH2 already did over 400m Yuan 5 years ago. It is obvious that FB is not making 1 billion Yuan now. Maybe 500-600m is the target now.

November 11th-13th (bold titles are local films) # (Last). Title: Total Gross (nº of weekend) Admissions (drop) 1 (1) . Trolls: €5,782,568 (3rd) 972,295 (-25%) 2 (2) . A monster calls: €24,554,000 (6th) 4,302,132 (-38%) 3 (3) . Sully: €2,622,362 (2nd) 379,727 (-40%) 4 (N) . No culpes al karma...: €734,196 (NEW) 112,343 (-) 5 (N) . Jack Reacher 2: €683,780 (NEW) 103,525 (-) 6 (4) . Doctor Strange: €5,491,986 (3rd) 858,663 (-43%) 7 (5) . 100 metros: €1,213,611 (2nd) 191,638 (-36%) 8 (6) . Ouija: Origin of evil: €2,801,522 (3rd) 440,103 (-45%) 9 (N) . Peppa Pig: The golden boots: €210,304 (NEW) 43,337 (-) 10 (7) . The girl on the train: €3,696,067 (4th) 747,243 (-48%) 11 (N) . El ciudadano ilustre: €166,536 (NEW) 23,060 (-) 12 (11). Storks: €6,073,036 (7th) 997,022 (-30%) 13 (8) . Inferno: €5,478,672 (5th) 1,013,711 (-49%) 14 (9) . Que Dios nos perdone: €1,263,437 (3rd) 188,406 (-51%) 15 (10). The accountant: €2,454,155 (4th) 484,691 (-51%) 16 (13). Miss Peregrine's Home...: €6,381,005 (7th) 1,109,681 (-28%) 17 (12). Blair Witch: €374,659 (2nd) 60,895 (-61%) 18 (14). Ozzy: €1,885,084 (5th) 361,835 (-36%) 19 (15). I, Daniel Blake: €448,148 (3rd) 71,177 (-41%) 20 (N) . Umi yori mo mada fukaku: €42,724 (NEW) 6,070 (-)

Age of Ultron opened on Tuesday, if I remember well.

Yes, figures in euros come from Ministry of Culture. And I am using an average ticket price of €6.73 (average of top 50 last weekend).

I would add Deadpool (I had no idea about his existence before the release). But yes, great performance for Dr. Strange.

Domestic: Thor 2: $36m 2nd weekend (-57%) $145m cume Dr. Strange: $43m 2nd weekend (-49%) $153m Thor 2: $53m 3rd weekend (2nd in China) $332m cume Dr. Strange: $60m 3rd weekend (2nd in China) $339m This means Dr. Strange is $15m ahead of Thor 2 at the same point. Following the same multiplier from now than Thor 2 (x2.69 from the 2nd DOM wknd and x3.03 from the 3rd wknd OS), Dr. Strange would finish with $225m DOM and $461m OS, for a $686m WW. IMO, taking into account wide better reception of Dr. Strange than Thor 2, $700m are very likely, maybe locked. And I see people saying that competition for Dr. Strange will be big because FB, Moana and Rogue One... Thor 2 faced Catching Fire, Frozen, and Desolation of Smaug. The three films combined grossed more than 3 billion WW.

Pretty agree. An scenario of 250 DOM / 550 OS / 800 WW seems quite plausible.

Harry Potter in Spain in order to know how popular was here and how much you can expect for FB: Film: Admissions / Euros (Dollars adjusted by inflation and ER) Sorcerer's Stone: 6,312,765 / €27,691,316 ($46,114,241) Chamber of Secrets: 5,217,643 / €23,788,452 ($38,114,463) Prisoner of Azkaban: 3,468,878 / €16,296,891 ($25,339,875) Globet of Fire: 3,892,056 / €19,874,235 ($28,431,156) Order of the Phoenix: 3,225,652 / €17,305,231 ($23,563,129) Half-Blood Prince: 2,409,754 / €14,044,103 ($17,603,059) Deathly Hallows I: 2,159,042 / €13,807,174 ($15,771,628) Deathly Hallows II: 2,312,059 / €15,949,023 ($16,889,405) @Jason: Do these data fit with your calculations?

I have noticed a big drop of Yuan relative Dollar since Trump's victory (nearly 6.86 today). Does anyone know how much can it still drop? or if the drop is directly related to Trump or it is an internal adjustment?

There are some people who know a lot more than me about Chinese market here, and they have been saying this along the year. And I insist, the ER is a problem. Yuan has lost about 8-9% relative to dollar since last year. Just a couple of examples: Furious 7 did $390m last year. With today ER, it would had done $356m. The Mermaid, did $526m. Today it would be about $497m.

It has lowered a lot the growth during the year after some 3-4 first months increasing. And ER does not help. After being constant for last weeks, it is dropping again since Trump victory. 6.81 today. Maybe we will see a low increase in Yuan, but it is probable to see a decrease in dollars relative to last year. By the end of October, BO was a 5% in Yuan than last year: http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/18770-monthlyquarterlyyearly-box-office-watch/?do=findComment&comment=2723566

November 11th-17th: 1. Guardians of the Galaxy 2 2. Wonder Woman 3. War for the Planet of the Apes 4. Beauty and the Beast 5. Dunkirk 6. Rogue One 7. Thor: Ragnarok 8. Blade Runner 2049 9. La La Land 10. Moana

IMHO, #7 is close to be locked. It could challenge CA2, but it will be hard.