Transformers Age of Extinction: 1.05B (300 mil in China!!)

[Fullbuster]

Honestly I don't think TF4 will improve over TF3 in Russia, the market's growth clearly weakened, passing $50m is extremely difficult there apparently, even Iron Man 3, The Hobbit or The Hobbit 2 couldn't do it. And TF3 grossed $45m so TF4 will have an uphill battle.

[Michael Seng Wah]

250mil in China, 550mil from Asia, 850mil OS, 300mil DOM = 1.15bil WW

[Jose Gabriel Alvarez]

Can you elaborate on why you think this movie will perform so "poorly"? Clearly, it can't be the quality of the product.

 Is 850-950M really poor? That's good, I just don't see this performing TF3 numbers after the cast has left and replaced with a new one, even if Mark Walhberg is a really great actor,

[Fullbuster]

 Is 850-950M really poor? That's good, I just don't see this performing TF3 numbers after the cast has left and replaced with a new one, even if Mark Walhberg is a really great actor,

 

Sorry to tell you that, but none of the actors in TF3 was so famous to begin with, and Shia even got tons of hatred.

The replacement won't change anything, particularly in Asia where the Transformers are the real stars, not humans.

[htall90]

Sorry to tell you that, but none of the actors in TF3 was so famous to begin with, and Shia even got tons of hatred.

The replacement won't change anything, particularly in Asia where the Transformers are the real stars, not humans.

I agree completely the robot's and the special effects are the stars not the actors!

[Leyla]

poor exchange rate will really hurt this here

i will dump my 50 mil pediction now

[SentryTrans]

Why people think TF4 would make only 200-250m in China?

 

The capicity of Chinese film market in 2014 is two times larger than 2011.

[edroger3]

TF4 may have a strong increase only in China, in the rest of world, included North America, I think there will be a decrease from 3rd movie. So we could see how big will be China boost. My prediction is 250M$ China, 800M$ OS, 300M$ DOM,1100M$ WW and #1 2014.

Edited April 2, 2014 by edroger

[Rsyu]

 

Why people think TF4 would make only 200-250m in China?

 

The capicity of Chinese film market in 2014 is two times larger than 2011.

 

Only 200-250m? so what you think it'll outgross NA or something?

[Olive]

$30M OD, $300M total in China.

[Fullbuster]

 

Why people think TF4 would make only 200-250m in China?

 

The capicity of Chinese film market in 2014 is two times larger than 2011.

 

 

Because this country disappointed us so many times in the past with harmful hurdles designed to lower gross of some big movies, TASM and TDKR for example.

[Rsyu]

I'll believe it when I see it. 

[Olive]

TF4 will have a great release date, when summer holidays begins.

Every big movie is escaping from being destroyed by it.

300M is absolutely happening in China. 

[baumer]

If it does really well in China, why would it not do well in other Asian countries?

 

800 seems to the floor.  So even if it only does 250 in NA, it'll still do a billion WW. 

[Tower]

If it does really well in China, why would it not do well in other Asian countries?

 

800 seems to the floor.  So even if it only does 250 in NA, it'll still do a billion WW. 

 

Different Asian countries don't actually behave in the same way, despite their geographic proximity. Plenty of sequels increase in China without doing so in other Asian countries.

[Fullbuster]

TF3 got a boost in all Asia over TF2.No reason to be different this time.

[Tower]

TF3 got a boost in all Asia over TF2.No reason to be different this time.

 

TF3 got a boost over TF2 in Europe as well, but these are different films with different factors.

[FrozenFan626]

God I hope this movie isn't the highest grosser of 2014. Unfortunately that's looking like a pretty forgone conclusion at this point...

[SentryTrans]

Because this country disappointed us so many times in the past with harmful hurdles designed to lower gross of some big movies, TASM and TDKR for example.

 

Just wait for several years, Chinese film market would become larger and larger.

[baumer]

TF3 got a boost over TF2 in Europe as well, but these are different films with different factors.

 

Sure I understand that.  But TF3 did well China, Japan, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Singapore.  So it will probably do well there again.  And then of course there's South Korea. 

 

***I'm just comparing the box office of Trf3 with that of Avatar.  It actually did better than Avatar in some Asian markets.  So that's why I use the logic that "it did well" in those markets.

Edited April 7, 2014 by baumer