Australia Australian Box Office | ....

[DeeCee]

2 hours ago, leatherjacket said:

Is there any chance it can big increase and the weekend higher?

There's always a chance but I don't think it's likely. There's nothing special about this weekend that would see the OW gross be more then 5 times the opening day. 

[baumer]

So it's opening day is calculated already?  Does this mean it has a 4 day weekend in Australia?  So it will have 4 days of grosses?  It did open yesterday, didn't it?

[DeeCee]

All movies open on Thursday in Australia. Sometimes they have previews on  Saturday/Sunday of the previous weekend(often the case with animated or family films) or they open on Wednesday night similar to the now regular Thursday openings in North America. 

 

Civil War had its first paid screenings from midnight and made $3.05m on the opening Thursday.  The multiplier from the opening day should be around 4.5-5.0 so the most the opening weekend is likely to be is $15.2m. With incredible WOM and really strong days the absolute most it could make is $16m. 

 

We should get the number for Friday in 12-14 hours. 

Edited April 29, 2016 by DeeCee

[Finnick]

You said incredible WOM: what is the hype now with CW? Are there any holidays in the upcoming weeks?

7 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

All movies open on Thursday in Australia. Sometimes they have previews on  Saturday/Sunday of the previous weekend(often the case with animated or family films) or they open on Wednesday night similar to the now regular Thursday openings in North America. 

 

Civil War had its first paid screenings from midnight and made $3.05m on the opening Thursday.  The multiplier from the opening day should be around 4.5-5.0 so the most the opening weekend is likely to be is $15.2m. With incredible WOM and really strong days the absolute most it could make is $16m. 

 

We should get the number for Friday in 12-14 hours. 

 

[baumer]

Thanks @DeeCee.  I didn't know your weekends were always 4 days (at least for film grosses)

[baumer]

And if it does open to about 15 mill, which is the equivalent of about 150 in the US, then that is exactly what I am predicting for it.  That would be a huge number of course, just not monstrous like BKB and others are predicting.

[DeeCee]

11 minutes ago, Baumer said:

And if it does open to about 15 mill, which is the equivalent of about 150 in the US, then that is exactly what I am predicting for it.  That would be a huge number of course, just not monstrous like BKB and others are predicting.

On the previous page I have some multipliers for AUD OW:USD OW Domestic.  This is the TWS: AUD6.058m opening weekend vs USD95.023m which is a multiplier of 15.7.  I think Civil War will have a multiplier of around 12. So and AUD15m weekend gives a Domestic opening of around USD180m. 

 

I hope old that makes sense. 

 

Also, no school holidays and no more public holidays until the Queens Birthday long weekend at the beginning of June. 

Edited April 29, 2016 by DeeCee

[baumer]

Ok, thanks Deecee.  That would be a terrific opening in North America.  

[DeeCee]

It's roughly performing at around 90% of AoU.  However, it's hard to compare Civil War to either The Avengers or AoU because they were both affected by opening around ANZAC Day.  ANZAC Day was on Monday so Civil War missed it. 

[DeeCee]

@RthWhat's the weekend looking like?

[Lordmandeep]

23 hours ago, DeeCee said:

It's roughly performing at around 90% of AoU.  However, it's hard to compare Civil War to either The Avengers or AoU because they were both affected by opening around ANZAC Day.  ANZAC Day was on Monday so Civil War missed it. 

 

 

So its pretty good then even so imo.

[JJ-8]

23 hours ago, DeeCee said:

On the previous page I have some multipliers for AUD OW:USD OW Domestic.  This is the TWS: AUD6.058m opening weekend vs USD95.023m which is a multiplier of 15.7.  I think Civil War will have a multiplier of around 12. So and AUD15m weekend gives a Domestic opening of around USD180m. 

 

I hope old that makes sense. 

 

Also, no school holidays and no more public holidays until the Queens Birthday long weekend at the beginning of June. 

 

Not quite true... Queensland has a long weekend this weekend (public holiday on monday ~ labour day because some stupid government thought it fun to put it back into may..... ) oh and Queensland no longer has a long weekend in June

 

I think you will find that multiplier is more like 13 or 14.

 

the 12.3 for AOU for example had the anzac day effect which meant the OW was stronger than normal.  how much effect that actually had is a good question but for comparison, CACW OD was bigger than AOU OD and yet we are predicting a smaller weekend due to the same reason.  Hence i think if we get a 15m OW here in AUS i'm thinking around a 13.5 (about mid way between AOU and what TWS multipliers were) which gives a US opening of 202m approximately.  

[JJ-8]

Oh and for information here is the breakdown from AOU (I just took a look through this thread back around page 295 i believe )

 

The Avengers :-

Wed (Anzac Day) = 6m

Thurs = 2.2m

Fri = 2.7m

Sat = 4.3m

Sun = 4m / 13.3m / 19.3m

 

The Avengers AOU :-

Wed Night (Previews) = 1.4m

Thurs = 2.9m 

Fri = 3.3m

Sat (Anzac Day) = 4.9m

Sun = 4.6m / 15.7m / 17.1m

 

For comparison so far we have for CACW:

 

Thurs = 3.05m

 

EDIT - added the avengers breakdown

[DeeCee]

We'll see but I don't see more then $15m for CW. 

[RthDeadWov]

WE looking at 13.6-14

[JJ-8]

40 minutes ago, Rth said:

WE looking at 13.6-14

Still good. 

 

(Yeah just noted bom has us at 4.5m USD after 2 days. So Friday must have been just under 3m. 

 

At at a guess the breakdown looks like

 

thurs - 3.05m

fri - 2.9m

sat - 4m

sun - 3.6m to 4m?

 

now the US opening from this. The best example would be AOU which if u include wed night 11.2 x. But that film had Anzac Day making sat massive. now the best multiplier could be found by removing the wed night (CW didn't get that here)  

also remove about 500k for Anzac Day.  Say about 12.6. Lastly a film named captain America gets a small premium. So best case around 13 x. 

 

So right now the us opening range is:

152m (13.6 x 11.2) to 182m

the outlier of course is TWS multiplier of  14.8 (6.4m vs 95m - including previews) which gives an ow of 207m. 

 

I I think in the US based on this will wind up above 180m (but 150m to 160m is in there) still (gonna stick with 215m in the summer game cause I'm crazy)

[Thrylos 7]

Never knew Australia was the deciding factor about a movie's performance in the u.s . You learn something new everyday !!!

[CasualName99]

Are there any statistics showing that performance in OZ is the most precise predictor of performance in NA? I mean, why not use UK's numbers?

[DeeCee]

The correlation comes out of the fact that the total annual box office gross in Australia is just over AUD1 Billion and the Domestic(USA/Canada) gross is USD10 Billion.  There is 10:1 ratio between the two grosses. 

 

e.g.If a film's total gross is AUD30m in Australia and USD300m Domestic then they had the same impact in each market. However, if that film made only USD150m then it over-performed in Australia. 

 

This works best for the total gross rather then OW as the OW can have more variables like different holidays plus Australia is 4 days whereas Domestic was 3 and is now 3.5 days. 

 

The total gross ratio can also vary depending on the genre. Traditionally comic book films performed relatively better Domestic then in Australia but over recent years it's been more even. 

 

It's interesting with regards to Civil War because if the pattern holds it might give us a better indication of how CW might open next weekend. 

 

Why are we using Australia? This is the Aussie thread. 

 

Edited May 1, 2016 by DeeCee

[DeeCee]

Some recent big films.  Total gross USD Domestic:AUD Australia.  The higher the last number the better it performed Domestic relative to Australia.

 

TFA USD936m:AUD94m - 10

Avatar USD760m:AUD115m - 6.6

Titanic USD659m:AUD65m - 10.1

JW USD652m:AUD53m - 12.3

TA USD623m:AUD53m - 11.8

TDK USD534m:AUD46m - 11.6

TPM USD475m:AUD43m - 11

AoU USD459m:AUD40m - 11.5

TDKR USD448m:AUD43m - 10.4

Shrek2 USD441m:AUD50m - 8.8

Deadpool USD362:AUD42m - 8.6

LOTR:ROTK USD378m:AUD49m - 7.7

HP:DH2 USD381m:AUD52.6m - 7.2

Skyfall USD304m:AUD49m - 6.2

MoS USD291m:AUD24m - 12.1

BvS USD322:AUD29.5m - 10.9