ITALY (Botteghino): 'Kung Fu Panda 4' becomes biggest 2024 film

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, RJ 95 said:

Friday

Joker - € 1.157.860 (+32%) from yesterday, also just (-6.1%) from last week!! 

Current Total € 11.357.307

 

Gemini Man € 150.357

Probably the most impressive market for Joker that too a place that was in a morbid state mostly this decade.

[RJ 95]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Probably the most impressive market for Joker that too a place that was in a morbid state mostly this decade.

I will argue that UK is not that far behind, I mean their OW double the number here and it's second week drop also can reach only 30%. That's crazy too. Who know it might reach Dark Knight territory by 4x it's OW. 

[XO21]

Sub 10% are only seen during Xmas, just crazy...I had the impression the chatter was Endgame-Bohemian level but now the numbers confirmed it. 
 

There is no Serie A this weekend so that should help.

[Omni]

Since a sub-20% drop is locked and a sub-10% is probably happening (though not certain, it has to match last weekend's 70%+ Saturday rise), thanks to no big football match on Sunday as XO21 mentioned, I guess it's time to give back a look at Inside Out's performance, another movie that opened at the beginning of Autumn (2nd half of September in that case), had a crazy good OW around 6M, performed much better than expected on weekdays and was close to flat on weekend 2.

 

OW: 5.70 // total 6.29 (Wed opener)

2nd weekend 5.40 (-5.5%) // total 13.58

3rd weekend 3.88 (-28%) // total 18.75

4th weekend 2.17 (-44%) // total 21.72

5th weekend 1.31 (-40%) // total 23.67

6th weekend 0.58 (-56%) // total 24.48

 

Assuming a weekend of 5.5/6.0M (down around 10% from its 6.26M opening), Joker will already be above 15 millions by Sunday night.

Then it would need:

* about a 1.8x multiplier to beat Spider Man (2002) and become the second highest grossing superhero movie ever - LOCKED

* about a 1.9x multiplier to beat Beauty and the Beast as the 3rd highest grosser since February 2016 - LOCKED

* about a 2.8x multiplier to beat Star Wars TFA - DOABLE

* about a 3.6x multiplier to beat Endgame - VERY VERY HARD, BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, Omni said:

to beat Endgame - VERY VERY HARD, BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE

Don't do this to me Italy.

[fabiopazzo2]

Wtf happen to this boring market?? Now im expect Frozen 2 over Inside out and SW IX over 20M.

 

FF9 easily over FF7

[keysersoze123]

9 hours ago, RJ 95 said:

I will argue that UK is not that far behind, I mean their OW double the number here and it's second week drop also can reach only 30%. That's crazy too. Who know it might reach Dark Knight territory by 4x it's OW. 

We consistently see crazy runs in UK. Market is not in a bad shape unlike Italy or Spain where BO is well down from its peak. I dont see any movie hitting Avatar's numbers in these countries for ever. But UK has seen records being broken. so not that impressive.

 

Imagine if Joker pulls a rabbit and beats Endgame. That would be absolutely crazy. No comparison even to domestic where it could take R-rated record with a leggy run.

[RJ 95]

Saturday

Joker - € 2.000.776 (+72%) from yesterday

 Only (-5.4%) from last week!! Crazy hold

Current Total € 13.532.329

 

Gemini Man € 363.445

Edited October 13, 2019 by RJ 95

[Omni]

Very well, its Saturday increase is on par with the one it got on OW. Now let's hope it remains about flat on Sunday.

 

Also, the last time a non-Cameron Hollywood movie had a 2M+ SECOND Saturday outside Christmas holidays was in the month of Never-ary.

[RJ 95]

Sunday

Joker - € 1.946.255 , That horrible 2.8% drop from yesterday !!

It also increase 3.6% from last week sunday

For whole weekend its € 6.047.349 (4.5%) drop from last weekend

So WB might revise $300k more than previous estimates

 

Also Gemini Boy € 334.753

 

Edited October 14, 2019 by RJ 95

[keysersoze123]

15 minutes ago, RJ 95 said:

Sunday

Joker - € 1.946.255 , That horrible 2.8% drop from yesterday !!

It also increase 3.6% from Sunday

For whole weekend its € 6.047.349 (4.5%) drop from last weekend

So WB might revise $300k more than previous estimates

 

Also Gemini Boy € 334.753

 

Shouldn't it increase on a sunday. I guess WOM is toxic.

[Omni]

Joker already #3 for the year, beating Aladdin's 15.43M gross in 11 days. Already at 2.2M admissions.

 

More later. But this is like a movie opening at 125M on OW in North America and being basically flat on second weekend.

[Omni]

WEEKEND RESULTS (10/13 OCTOBER)

 

RANK	MOVIE	WEEKEND GROSS	HOLD	TOTAL GROSS	CONVERTED TO NA
1	Joker	6.047.348	-3.5%	15.511.395	120.90/ 310.20
2	Gemini Man	959.439	NEW	959.439	19.20/19.20
3	Abominable	490.041	-37%	1.386.958	9.80/27.70
4	Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood	444.904	-51%	11.286.113	8.90/225.70
5	Brave Ragazze (It)	319.766	NEW	319.766	6.40/6.40
6	Long Shot	306.361	NEW	306.361	6.10/6.10
7	The Hole in the Ground (Ir)	224.338	NEW	224.338	4.50/4.50
8	La Vérité (Fr)	215.861	NEW	218.242	4.30/4.40
9	Tuttapposto (It)	166.627	-60%	658.110	3.30/13.20
10	The Big Trip (Usa/Rus)	160.218	NEW	160.218	3.20/3.20

 

The weekend was up 24.59% from the same weekend last year. 2019's lead on 2018 has increased to 13.64%.

Another 0.68% gained over last year, and this is always thanks to Joker and its crazy weekdays.

 

If it can keep the momentum a little longer, Joker will become THE box office run of this year, even if it fails to beat The Lion King (which is impossible) and Endgame (which is now a 20/80). Just to put this into perspective, the only Hollywood movies that ever managed a non-Christmas second weekend above 6 millions are Avatar and The Lion King. Every other monster (Alice IW, Minions, Inside Out, Ice Age 3, Endgame, Bohemian Rhapsody) failed to go that high. So far, the Phoenix movie is making Bohemian Rhapsody's run look dull. I just can't believe what's happening.

 

Let's use the Inside Out comparison again. The Pixar masterpiece added 11.75 millions after a 5.40M second weekend. If Joker has its legs, it will add 11.75*1.11=13.10 millions. That means a 28.60M finish. Endgame stands at 30.28. I would be cautious about this because unfortunately this weekend there's Maleficent 2, and if The Nutcracker can get close to 10 millions, Jolie surely has the potential to easily pass that mark. IF Joker somehow drops around 30% this weekend, Endgame will be in trouble. If it drops 40% it will be safe. If it somehow manages a 20% drop...well...

 

Everything else is not interesting.

 

About Maleficent 2, I'd go with 500/600K OD, 3/3.5M OW and 10M total. Not predicting more because of the Looking Glass.

Edited October 15, 2019 by Omni

[Aristis]

40 minutes ago, Omni said:

Everything else is not interesting.

Well, I think there is one other interesting thing: First there's two Will Smith and now there's two OUATIH

[RJ 95]

Monday

Joker € 563.023 ( -38 %) from last week, also 71.1% drop from Sunday

Hmm....

Hopefully it can still land in $ 25-28m

 

Gemini Boy € 83.366

Edited October 15, 2019 by RJ 95

[teard1972]

2 hours ago, RJ 95 said:

Monday

Joker € 563.023 ( -38 %) from last week, also 71.1% drop from Sunday

Hmm....

Hopefully it can still land in $ 25-28m

 

Gemini Boy € 83.366

Maybe demands have burned out~ 

[Omni]

11 hours ago, Aristis said:

Well, I think there is one other interesting thing: First there's two Will Smith and now there's two OUATIH

Ooops fixed

 

Yeah this number for the Joker is a little alarming. Though not too much, as it's something similar to what happened to Inside Out, and to other movies as well. Inside Out for example was down 5% over the weekend and then 27% Mon-to-Mon. One could say Joker's retention is much worse, but it's also true that Inside Out's first dailies, while stronger than usual for an animated movie, were far as sensational as Joker's: a little less than an 80% drop for the former, a 50% drop for the latter.

 

As long as the movie increases 10%+ both today and tomorrow and remains above 450K on Thursday, it's completely fine.

[RJ 95]

8 minutes ago, Omni said:

Ooops fixed

 

Yeah this number for the Joker is a little alarming. Though not too much, as it's something similar to what happened to Inside Out, and to other movies as well. Inside Out for example was down 5% over the weekend and then 27% Mon-to-Mon. One could say Joker's retention is much worse, but it's also true that Inside Out's first dailies, while stronger than usual for an animated movie, were far as sensational as Joker's: a little less than an 80% drop for the former, a 50% drop for the latter.

 

As long as the movie increases 10%+ both today and tomorrow and remains above 450K on Thursday, it's completely fine.

Yep , hopefully it can still increase 10% tomorrow to finish at least > $ 25m.

I just worry that when even Italy who embrace this movie the most drop 38% from last Monday. Maybe other European countries will start drop > 40% . Hopefully still in 30-40% range to keep billion dream alive.

[Omni]

Nah, this is just Italy being Italy. It happened a lot of times in the past.

Also, adult movies tend to increase way more than 50% on Fridays and often get 100%+ on Saturdays, and Joker did +32% and +72% respectively last week, so there's a lot of room to recover.

[fabiopazzo2]

Gemini 

 

One piece Stampede next week, cant wait 😁

 

Edited October 15, 2019 by fabiopazzo2