ITALY (Botteghino): 'Kung Fu Panda 4' stronger than predecessor

[Omni]

That may be even more mind-blowing than Jan 1st. Ralph still above the million, and Aquaman not far away. Considering how much the adult movies dropped, Aquaman must be attracting a high percentage of teens, and the 3D shows are selling unusually well (the average ticket price is really high).

So much for La Befana Vien di Notte having a chance of getting back the top spot

 

Here's how post-2000 DC movies performed in the market:

 

1) THE DARK KNIGHT RISES: 14.67m

2) SUICIDE SQUAD: 12.11m

3) BATMAN VS SUPERMAN: 10.55m

4) THE DARK KNIGHT: 9.48m

5) JUSTICE LEAGUE: 6.74m

6) SUPERMAN RETURNS: 5.34m

7) MAN OF STEEL: 4.68m

8 ) BATMAN BEGINS: 3.60m

9) WONDER WOMAN: 3.41m

 

Aquaman's result is even more shoking when you look at how poorly the first solo DC movies did. The first entries of Superman, Batman and Wonder Woman all stopped around 4M euros. Aquaman will pass Justice League with ease and has a solid chance at passing The Dark Knight or even BvS. The top 2 titles are theorically out of reach - but hey, 22M was also out of reach for Bohemian Rhapsody when it opened, yet it got there yesterday.

[Omni]

2018-2019 SEASON SO FAR

 

1	BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY	29/11/2018	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 22.081.007	3.109.348
2	ANIMALI FANTASTICI: I CRIMINI DI GRINDELWALD (FANTASTIC BEASTS: THE CRIMES OF GRINDELWALD)	15/11/2018	GBR	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 12.771.400	1.826.164
3	HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 3: UNA VACANZA MOSTRUOSA (HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 3: SUMMER VACATION)	22/08/2018	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 12.254.184	1.934.922
4	GLI INCREDIBILI 2 (INCREDIBLES 2)	19/09/2018	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 12.047.727	1.874.457
5	IL RITORNO DI MARY POPPINS (MARY POPPINS RETURNS)	20/12/2018	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 10.613.517	1.583.125
6	LO SCHIACCIANOCI E I QUATTRO REGNI (THE NUTCRACKER AND THE FOUR REALMS)	31/10/2018	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 9.416.956	1.478.142
7	VENOM	04/10/2018	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 8.497.378	1.236.377
8	AMICI COME PRIMA	19/12/2018	ITA	MEDUSA FILM S.P.A.	€ 7.522.320	1.056.748
9	A STAR IS BORN	11/10/2018	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 6.777.570	994.198
10	IL GRINCH (THE GRINCH)	29/11/2018	USA	UNIVERSAL S.R.L.	€ 5.794.858	912.73

 

Bohemian Rhapsody still on course to beat SW7. Needs 3.5 more millions to do so. It hasn't, however, reached BatB's admissions yet (3.22 millions). It will be accomplished by this weekend.

Mary Poppins needs a 3rd weekend around 2M (drop in the high 30's) to still have a chance of becoming the #3 movie of the year (currently 50SF with 14.4 millions), but that looks pretty much impossible right now.

A Star is Born is so damn close to one million admissions.

The Grinch is spending its last days in the top 10. On Friday La Befana Vien di Notte will overtake it. ASiB will be overtaken by it and by the Ralph/Aquaman duo pretty soon, too.

 

 

 

Edited January 3, 2019 by Omni

[MaxAggressor]

https://variety.com/2019/film/news/italy-2018-box-office-worst-result-in-a-decade-1203097615/

 

Box office returns in Italy dropped about 5% to €555 million ($631 million) in 2018, posting their worst result in a decade as Hollywood blockbusters drew in fewer Italian moviegoers than usual.

 

On the bright side, Italian films gained traction last year, scoring a 22% market share, up from 16% in 2017, marking the second-best showing in the past four years, according to box office analyst Robert Bernocchi. He said that this surpassed the results for homegrown pics in Spain and Germany, which clocked in at about 17% and 18%, respectively.

 

U.S. films in 2018 nabbed a total of €330 million ($375 million), accounting for 60% of Italy’s market share. That’s a solid result, but roughly six percentage points lower than in 2017, fueling the country’s overall box office drop. The year’s top grosser was Fox’s international hit “Bohemian Rhapsody,” which has pulled in more than €21 million ($23 million), and counting.

 

Italian ticket sales in 2018 were just shy of 86 million, according to figures from box office compiler Cinetel. They plunged below 90 million for the first time in 10 years, Bernocchi noted. Historically in Italy, 100 million admissions is considered the benchmark below which the year is considered a negative one.

[Omni]

Exactly. The drop was softened by the strength of November and December (Nutcracker, Bohemian Rhapsody, FB2, Mary Poppins) but it was not enough to save a very bad year. The drop was 6.5% in late October.

 

Italian films going from a 16% market share to a 22% one is one hell of a way of spinning the facts. 2018 has been a very bad year for Italian titles, It is in fact the only year since...well, I don't even remember when...that no local movie managed to cross the 10M mark (A Casa tutti bene, with 9.2M euros). And unless La Befana Vien di Notte and Amici come Prima experience - for no reason at all - soft post-holidays drops, there won't be any local movies in the top 10 of the year. The only reason that the % has increased is that the market is more and more saturated by useless minor products. Most of them only gross 1/2 millions when they're lucky, but if you add a lot of crumbs you'll eventually end up with a modest loaf.

 

I'll post the 2018 chart soon, probably tomorrow.

 

Edit: time to update the title, I guess.

Edited January 3, 2019 by Omni

[terrestrial]

3 hours ago, MaxAggressor said:

Spain and Germany, which clocked in at about 17% and 18%,

Local movies in Germany 2018 managed to earn 21% of the whole, the rest I agree with as far as I am up-to-date

[fabiopazzo2]

1	RALPH SPACCA INTERNET (RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET)	01/01/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 812.056	127.937
2	AQUAMAN	01/01/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 719.980	103.431
3	LA BEFANA VIEN DI NOTTE	27/12/2018	ITA	LUCKY RED DISTRIB.	€ 309.364	49.079
4	BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY	29/11/2018	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 226.686	31.906
5	IL RITORNO DI MARY POPPINS (MARY POPPINS RETURNS)	20/12/2018	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 219.650	34.099
6	VAN GOGH - SULLA SOGLIA DELL'ETERNITA' (AT ETERNITY'S GATE)	03/01/2019	USA	LUCKY RED DISTRIB.	€ 195.072	29.634
7	MOSCHETTIERI DEL RE	27/12/2018	ITA	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 188.193	29.671
8	AMICI COME PRIMA	19/12/2018	ITA	MEDUSA FILM S.P.A.	€ 92.365	13.632
9	VICE - L'UOMO NELL'OMBRA	03/01/2019	USA	EAGLE PICTURES S.P.A.	€ 90.712	13.738
10	SUSPIRIA	01/01/2019	ITA	VIDEA S.P.A.	€ 80.560	11.425

[XO21]

The state of the italian film industry has been like for at least a decade...for a big country I don't think re call - other than Venice - that any legit promo happens there. Sad given the rich history even in films.

[Omni]

Cumes:

Ralph > 3.59M

Aquaman > 3.25M

La Befana Vien di Notte > 5.10M

Mary Poppins > 10.85M

Amici come Prima > 7.62M

The Grinch > 5.80M

Bumblebee has yet to reach the 3M mark...

 

Drops from Jan 1st:

 

Ralph: -50.5%

Aquaman: -53.5%

La Befana Vien di Notte: -67%

Bohemian Rhapsody: -50%

Mary Poppins: -56%

Moschettieri del Re: -69%

Amici come Prima: -78.5%

 

The Ralph/Aquaman duo didn't only open huge, but it's holding better than any holdover not named Bohemian Rhapsody. If they behave like Poppins did last weekend, their weekend will be around 3M euros. If they even get small bumps every day, we'll be looking at an OW close to 4M.

 

Bohemian Rhapsody is quickly climbing the all-time chart:

 

25 > Minions > 23.44M

26 > LOTR/3: The Return of the King > 22.83M

27 > Così è la Vita (It) > 22.52M

28 > Bohemian Rhapsody > 22.32M

29 > La Leggenda di Al, John e Jack (It) > 22.26M

30 > Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows/2 > 22.25M

31 > Madagascar 3 > 21.91M

32 > Finding Nemo > 21.86M

 

It could kick Minions out of the top 25 as soon as this Sunday. Though somewhere next week is more likely.

Edited January 4, 2019 by Omni

[Ed Raven]

My goodness, why do bad/populist movies have to earn so much every damn time? The more trivial and generic the movie, the higher the gross. Some few exceptions. Also, maybe Queens are just (still) too popular. 

[Omni]

What are you exactly referring to?

[titanic2187]

1	RALPH SPACCA INTERNET (RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET)	01/01/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 777.195	121.881
2	AQUAMAN	01/01/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 749.261	105.781
3	LA BEFANA VIEN DI NOTTE	27/12/2018	ITA	LUCKY RED DISTRIB.	€ 334.769	52.610
4	BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY	29/11/2018	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 274.549	37.830
5	VAN GOGH - SULLA SOGLIA DELL'ETERNITA' (AT ETERNITY'S GATE)	03/01/2019	USA	LUCKY RED DISTRIB.	€ 226.029	33.715
6	MOSCHETTIERI DEL RE	27/12/2018	ITA	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 220.843	34.157
7	IL RITORNO DI MARY POPPINS (MARY POPPINS RETURNS)	20/12/2018	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 202.811	31.365
8	VICE - L'UOMO NELL'OMBRA	03/01/2019	USA	EAGLE PICTURES S.P.A.	€ 115.022	17.273
9	SUSPIRIA	01/01/2019	ITA	VIDEA S.P.A.	€ 95.738	13.335
10	AMICI COME PRIMA	19/12/2018	ITA	MEDUSA FILM S.P.A.	€ 90.924	12.945

 

very weak friday's bump across the board. some kid-movie even drop.

[titanic2187]

Any Italian here? Is public holidays fall on sunday got replaced by Monday in Italy?

 

The sunday supposed to be a public holiday for Italy, if not, all the films will lose one day extra bump

[efialtes76]

29 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Any Italian here? Is public holidays fall on sunday got replaced by Monday in Italy?

 

The sunday supposed to be a public holiday for Italy, if not, all the films will lose one day extra bump

Monday is a holiday too( Festa del Tricolore). 

[Omni]

Yes, but there will be nothing aside a few celebrations. All schools open on Monday and it will behave just like a normal workday. So yes, no bump after the 6th.

 

This Friday performed just like last Friday. And 50 Shades Freed's 3rd place in the yearly rankings is now officially safe, as Poppins is looking at a weekend drop well above 60%.

 

Edit: Aquaman has already passed the 4M mark, thus passing the lifetime total of the solo debuts of Batman and Wonder Woman. Today it will also pass Man of Steel.

Edited January 5, 2019 by Omni

[titanic2187]

Pos.	Titolo	Prima Progr.	Nazione	Distribuzione	Incasso	Presenze
1	RALPH SPACCA INTERNET (RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET)	01/01/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 1.191.768	177.697
2	AQUAMAN	01/01/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 1.181.010	158.864
3	LA BEFANA VIEN DI NOTTE	27/12/2018	ITA	LUCKY RED DISTRIB.	€ 622.076	91.835
4	MOSCHETTIERI DEL RE	27/12/2018	ITA	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 423.015	59.871
5	BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY	29/11/2018	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 400.811	52.522
6	VAN GOGH - SULLA SOGLIA DELL'ETERNITA' (AT ETERNITY'S GATE)	03/01/2019	USA	LUCKY RED DISTRIB.	€ 400.767	56.837
7	IL RITORNO DI MARY POPPINS (MARY POPPINS RETURNS)	20/12/2018	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 267.553	39.584
8	VICE - L'UOMO NELL'OMBRA	03/01/2019	USA	EAGLE PICTURES S.P.A.	€ 227.256	32.413
9	AMICI COME PRIMA	19/12/2018	ITA	MEDUSA FILM S.P.A.	€ 170.898	23.659
10	SUSPIRIA	01/01/2019	ITA	VIDEA S.P.A.	€ 135.573	17.958

 

 

Local film received much more saturday bump then hollywood title with nearly 100% up while hollywood title was about 50%+

 

[Omni]

Mary Poppins up just 30% from Friday, weakest increase in the top 10. It will definitely be a struggle for FB2's 12.8M gross.

 

Ralph's Saturday is more than 80% of I2's first Saturday, despite the 4.5M worth of demand it already burned. And despite being Ralph. In just 5 days it's already ammassed 95% of The Grinch's final gross.

 

In the next few days I may have little access to internet, so the weekend analysis may be postponed. As well as the 2018 rankings.

[titanic2187]

 

06Jan

Pos.	Titolo	Prima Progr.	Nazione	Distribuzione	Incasso	Presenze
1	RALPH SPACCA INTERNET (RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET)	01/01/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 1.172.281	173.671
2	AQUAMAN	01/01/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 1.031.904	139.049
3	LA BEFANA VIEN DI NOTTE	27/12/2018	ITA	LUCKY RED DISTRIB.	€ 657.536	96.844
4	VAN GOGH - SULLA SOGLIA DELL'ETERNITA' (AT ETERNITY'S GATE)	03/01/2019	USA	LUCKY RED DISTRIB.	€ 406.899	57.740
5	MOSCHETTIERI DEL RE	27/12/2018	ITA	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 399.325	56.863
6	BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY	29/11/2018	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 339.526	44.740
7	IL RITORNO DI MARY POPPINS (MARY POPPINS RETURNS)	20/12/2018	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 269.391	39.150
8	VICE - L'UOMO NELL'OMBRA	03/01/2019	USA	EAGLE PICTURES S.P.A.	€ 209.536	29.734
9	AMICI COME PRIMA	19/12/2018	ITA	MEDUSA FILM S.P.A.	€ 159.575	21.742
10	SUSPIRIA	01/01/2019	ITA	VIDEA S.P.A.	€ 102.770	13.567

 

 

 

[Omni]

WEEKEND ACTUALS 3-6 JANUARY

- all in million € -

 

-RANK-	MOVIE	WEEKEND GROSS	HOLD	TOTAL GROSS	PROJECTED GROSS
1	Ralph Breaks the Internet	4.00	NEW	6.78	11.70
2	Aquaman	3.71	NEW	6.24	11.10
3	La Befana Vien di Notte (It)	1.95	-29%	6.80	8.50
4	Bohemian Rhapsody	1.25	-35%	23.35	26.00
5	Moschettieri del Re (It)	1.24	-26%	4.28	5.60
6	At Eternity's Gate	1.24	NEW	1.24	3.00
7	Mary Poppins Returns	0.97	-70%	11.61	12.60
8	Vice	0.65	NEW	0.65	1.40
9	Amici come Prima (It)	0.52	-71%	8.05	8.40
10	Suspiria (It)	0.42	NEW	0.67	1.40

 

 

Ralph managed a 4-day weekend just a tiny little tad above the 4M mark. Tremendous achievement!

Post-holidays multipliers for recent family movies:

Jumanji: 2.4x (released on Jan 1st)

Coco: 2.3x (released on Dec. 28th)

Ferdinand: 1.8x (released on Xmas)

Sing: 2.6x (released on Jan 4th)

Moana: 2.2x (released right before Xmas)

The strength of the january holds mirrors the "oldness" of a movie. Coco's multiplier will bring it just above Incredibles 2, while Jumanji's will give it a total between FB2 and HT3. Given my history of overpredictions, I'm picking the conservative way, despite the very weak competition in January.

Aquaman would struggle to the double-digit under normal circumstances, but the good multipliers it's getting in every country and the nice WOM it has makes me think it will pass the mark with relative ease.

La Befana Vien di Notte didn't benefit of its Epiphany theme as much as I thought. It will still finish in the top 3 of the year among Italian releases though, unless it completely collapse this weekend.

Bohemian Rhapsody is now very likely to beat Star Wars 7. Its climbing in the all-time chart continues.

Mary Poppins...well, disastrous hold to say the least. A hold that clearly shows how it made money just because it was the perfect movie to see during the holidays and because there was no other solid option for families in late December (Bumblebee and Spiderverse disappointed, Grinch was barely in theaters). It needs a multiplier on par with Moana's to match the total of Fantastic Beasts 2 (#2 of the season so far), and it's not very likely. It should behave between Moana and Ferdinand for a 2x multiplier. Good total, bad legs.

No idea why and how Moschettieri del Re managed the best hold in the top 10, but it's certainly clear why the Van Gogh movie (At Eternity's Gate) did so well - movies about arts are unusually popular these days.

Suspiria was released with a very limited number of showings, no wonder it opened that low. Not that I'm complaining about that, it should have never been made.

Awful hold of Spiderverse (#11 with 250K and a drop over 75%) and a pathetic one for Bumblebee (#12 with 130K and a drop well over 80%). 

Ben is Back dropped very hard too, -75%. Grinch out of the top 20 and at the end of its run.

[Omni]

I forgot to mention that the first weekend of the year is down by 0.90% from the same weekend of last year, but the good news is that the first 6 days of 2019 are up 11.94% from the equivalent start of 2018. Okay, this is with the 7th falling on a Monday instead of on a Sunday, but it's still a pretty good start.

 

TOP 10 OF THE 2018-2019 SEASON

 

1	BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY	29/11/2018	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 23.351.240	3.280.370
2	ANIMALI FANTASTICI: I CRIMINI DI GRINDELWALD (FANTASTIC BEASTS: THE CRIMES OF GRINDELWALD)	15/11/2018	GBR	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 12.776.859	1.827.036
3	HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 3: UNA VACANZA MOSTRUOSA (HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 3: SUMMER VACATION)	22/08/2018	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 12.254.184	1.934.922
4	GLI INCREDIBILI 2 (INCREDIBLES 2)	19/09/2018	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 12.048.568	1.874.635
5	IL RITORNO DI MARY POPPINS (MARY POPPINS RETURNS)	20/12/2018	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 11.605.718	1.732.187
6	LO SCHIACCIANOCI E I QUATTRO REGNI (THE NUTCRACKER AND THE FOUR REALMS)	31/10/2018	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 9.424.167	1.479.450
7	VENOM	04/10/2018	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 8.497.518	1.236.407
8	AMICI COME PRIMA	19/12/2018	ITA	MEDUSA FILM S.P.A.	€ 8.053.186	1.131.175
9	LA BEFANA VIEN DI NOTTE	27/12/2018	ITA	LUCKY RED DISTRIB.	€ 6.803.633	1.019.834
10	RALPH SPACCA INTERNET (RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET)	01/01/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 6.781.988	1.026.421

 

On Saturday Bohemian Rhapsody passed the admissions of Beauty and the Beast (2017) among recent titles, and it's hours away from kicking Minions out of the top 25 in the all-time list (obviously in euros).

 

15 > Pinocchio (It) > 26.20M

16 > Fuochi d'Artificio (It) > 25.88M

17 > Star Wars: The Force Awakens > 25.55M

18 > Inside Out > 25.39M

19 > Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone > 25.27M

20 > Madagascar 2 > 25.09M

21 > Il Paradiso all'Improvviso > 24.95M

22 > Natale a Rio (It) > 24.68M

23 > Natale a New York (It) > 23.56M

24 > Natale in Crociera (It) > 23.46M

25 > Minions > 23.44M

26 > Bohemian Rhapsody > 23.35M

27 > LOTR/3: The Return of the King > 22.83M

28 > Così è la Vita (It) > 22.52M

 

The 11/13M range is becoming quite crowded, and Ralph and Aquaman will furtherly increase the density.

The Grinch and A Star is Born are now out of the top 10. Venom will remain there for at least 2 more months if the late legs of Amici come Prima and La Befana Vien di Notte are weak enough.

 

[Omni]

7/1/19

 

1	AQUAMAN	01/01/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 228.785	36.698
2	RALPH SPACCA INTERNET (RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET)	01/01/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 120.070	21.264
3	BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY	29/11/2018	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 115.853	18.335
4	VAN GOGH - SULLA SOGLIA DELL'ETERNITA' (AT ETERNITY'S GATE)	03/01/2019	USA	LUCKY RED DISTRIB.	€ 87.129	14.733
5	LA BEFANA VIEN DI NOTTE	27/12/2018	ITA	LUCKY RED DISTRIB.	€ 51.372	9.259
6	MOSCHETTIERI DEL RE	27/12/2018	ITA	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 49.367	8.803
7	VICE - L'UOMO NELL'OMBRA	03/01/2019	USA	EAGLE PICTURES S.P.A.	€ 44.442	7.663
8	SUSPIRIA	01/01/2019	ITA	VIDEA S.P.A.	€ 38.627	6.153
9	IL RITORNO DI MARY POPPINS (MARY POPPINS RETURNS)	20/12/2018	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 34.641	6.222
10	AMICI COME PRIMA	19/12/2018	ITA	MEDUSA FILM S.P.A.	€ 29.112	5.040

 

 

La Befaba Vien di Notte unsurprisingly got the worst hold, Suspiria the best one. Solid for Aquaman, a tad too harsh for Ralph.