Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Neo]

His actually talking about avatar 2 and avengers 2 lol.

LOL Was talking in future tense as did not happen. Typo? Avatar/TA was off by 1.2B. No way Avatar 2 out grosses AOU by 2.2B.

[htall90]

LOL Was talking in future tense as did not happen. Typo? Avatar/TA was off by 1.2B. No way Avatar 2 out grosses AOU by 2.2B.

Yh to optimistic what would it be TA 2 $1.6 billion and Avatar 2 $3.8 billion? Can't see that i think avatar 2 will drop heavily in developed markets but thanks to  a bigger international market overall it will gross similar amount to the first OS and ww IMO.

[Gokai Red]

Avengers 2-1.75B

Avatar 2-2.2B

[Kalel009Shel]

That''d be enough to ensure 500m+ IMO.

 

Mid-400's would happen only if the film gets very poor reception. It obviously wont have a mega OW, but the following holiday weekdays will make up for it. Avatar made almost 300m before the holidays ended. Suppose it'll be released in 2016, it will have much less competition. And also keep in mind that in 2016, there will be much more 3D screens than in 2009. In 2009 Avatar simply didn't have enough 3D screens to satisfy the demand. They wont have the problem in 2016.

 

I think it will go like this

 

Poor reception: 450m-ish

 

Decent reception: 500-550m

 

Good reception: 550-650m

 

Incredible reception: 650-750m.

 

Haters killing themselves reception: 750-10000000000000m!!!

Anything over 650-770 Haters will be needing medical attention VC2002 and Telemacho friends...LMAO.

How is everyone today... Kayum and Neoo and Tarzan.. Where art thou??!!!

[Kalel009Shel]

Yh to optimistic what would it be TA 2 $1.6 billion and Avatar 2 $3.8 billion? Can't see that i think avatar 2 will drop heavily in developed markets but thanks to  a bigger international market overall it will gross similar amount to the first OS and ww IMO.

Lol Neo you should never say its impossible. And if Avengers 2 hits 1.4.1.6billion

and avatar hits my 3.6 b or others 3.8-4.3b WW predicts.. It would be a collasal ass whooping

of actually 2billion to 2.2billion... 1.4-1.8billion ass whoppis more likely range though.

 

But if anyone can beat another mega boxoffice sequel that badly...Its the Juggernaut 2016

 

Poor BKB I cant wait to see  the epic fail of his TA2 will clobber A2 Hah hahah hahhah

[Kalel009Shel]

Avengers 2-1.75B

Avatar 2-2.2B

I think its possible TA2 can make between 1.4-1.7... It wont touch Titanics original gross though.

Avatar is going to make far more than 2.2 billion, though thats a good prediction Gokai.. It took Avengers and 3d and 300+% more 3d  screens in 3D around the world to even get to 1.5 billion...You really think when Avatar was lorded as the greatest movie experience in  history by ages 7-80+ all over the world that its OS market wont achieve far more than Avatar 1..

 

 

That is not likely...OS Avatar 2 alone will gross 2.4-3billion ..The domestic will determine how close to 4billion or over will A2 go.

 

I see an increase thanks to the OS gross by at least  400 Milllion. So A2 on the lowend should either make the same as A1 or at least 3.17B.. If its follows Camerons typical reception for mega epics.. My 3.6B WW predict will be blown away.

 

Rem  Cameron's magic at filmmaking over the  smaller behemoths everytime Gokai.

[Kalel009Shel]

Some of you speak of 2 Billion dollars like it's 50 cents or something.. No way is AVATAR 2 going to outgross TA2 by 2 Billion dollars and in the end, that's ALOT of $$$$ that you folks toss around and don't realize just how much that really is... Kal's gonna have egg on his face big time when this falls through the cracks, especially for someone so invested in this more than anyone..

^^ Say the guy that was amongst the others saying Avatar I would flop right.... :rofl:

[Kalel009Shel]

AOTC decreasing from TPM was obvious, ROTS failing to hit 900m WW after its predecessor didn't even hit 650m was also obvious, Transformers hitting 300m was predicted by many people and there wasn't that many people predicting SM2 to increase, that was 50-50. So basically im guessing this is your list of successes over the past 13 years lol, doesn't look very impressive at all Kal. you can have kudos for Alvin, ill take your word for it that you got it right, though it wouldn't surprise me if you're bullshitting as you have plenty of time before but there you go, you've had 2 good predictions in 13 years

 

Where are all your failures BTW?? like your Transformers 2 over 550m?? Or your 400m+ for SR? Choosing to ignore them are we.

 

Back to topic though, Avatar can't be what T2 was to T1 because there was a hell of a lot more room to grow and their was a big difference in budget. Avatar 2 will obviously look more spectacular, but it wont completely dwarf the original CGI wise, its too good.

^^^ Everyone has failures. Jesse.. You have more than most of us..Your point... Getting Alvin right.. Ive had major ones.. You jump on bandwagon films and make predictions based on patterns.. And still fail.

 

Hey I cant help that Micheal bay and his team screwed up the story(The Same with Singer over doing with Superman 2 nostalgia--not to mention it faced Pirates 2).  I believe my prediction that Transfomrers 2 would beat your ROTS still won out on the ww side... Hah hah.. Also you said TR3 would fall off bigtime after the ROTF...What happened.. LOL TR3 1.1billion WW... Whoopsie.

Your failures far outnumber mine.. Ive had proably over 20 super picks... Whats your excuse..  But the Avatar 1 will go down in history! Also that SM would make over a 100 min in 3 days.. Only 10-11 people were saying that back in the day. You were proably another saying Tobey would drag down Spiderman.. Right? LOL

[Kalel009Shel]

His actually talking about avatar 2 and avengers 2 lol.

Jam90 .. Rem this is James Cameron, he doesnt get lazy like Whedon and others in the epic  game. Josh did an incredible job with Avengers, but look at his job with the Firefly sequel and other projects.

 

So I think you should go with 1.4-1.6Billion range for Avengers 2. Lowest I see Avengers 2 making is 1.3B

[Kalel009Shel]

What do you mean and climbing?

Ahah you figured out my predicting future news... Neo.... I think you just might hear Av2 has outgrossed Avengers 2 by 2.2billion in the future.. FOlks will be coming back with the same obsessive intense bonding with the Pandoria experience, but this time it will be grander.. Anytime a man gives us Titanic(the unbeatable one run king-adjusted it made 1billion+ and lords knows what OS lol), then comes up with Avatar out of no where and his sequels have all outgrossed previous endeavors by leaps and bounds..

 

 

We should never say James has limits... Better to say its going to be tuff to beat Avengers 2 by over 2billion ,but far from impossible

[Killimano3]

Really it's going to very difficult to predict Avatar 2 when it's so far away, especially considering the lack of anything to really compare it too. The only sequels that ever came from a film that big are all adjusted and from decades ago so it's not really realistic to compare. The best comparison we could really have is when Star wars 7 is released in 2015 since that's another mega-sequel being released in December. But even there the differences between the franchises are pretty vast.

 

Statistics for other movies would say OS would increase but no movie has anywhere remotely near what Avatar made overseas let alone one that made that much then had a sequel.

 

Domestically it should be easier to predict, it's highly unlikely that it'll increase just considering how big the first one was and the only adjusted movies to increase over their sequels are way down in the 400-500 million range. Avatar may have been a huge movie but it wasn't exactly known to be the best movie ever made or anything so it's doubtful it would be able to increase. Real question is how close it gets to the original's total but that depends pretty heavily on how good the movie itself ends up being. We shall see I suppose

[Neo]

Lol Neo you should never say its impossible. And if Avengers 2 hits 1.4.1.6billion

and avatar hits my 3.6 b or others 3.8-4.3b WW predicts.. It would be a collasal ass whooping

of actually 2billion to 2.2billion... 1.4-1.8billion ass whoppis more likely range though.

 

But if anyone can beat another mega boxoffice sequel that badly...Its the Juggernaut 2016

 

Poor BKB I cant wait to see  the epic fail of his TA2 will clobber A2 Hah hahah hahhah

You say 3.8B like its a cakewalk, 4.3B WW Funny how you have AOU at 1.6B and Avatar upwards of 2.7B over and you have it over by 2.2B really? Will take bet that Avatar beats AOU by less than 2.2B.

[Neo]

Jam90 .. Rem this is James Cameron, he doesnt get lazy like Whedon and others in the epic  game. Josh did an incredible job with Avengers, but look at his job with the Firefly sequel and other projects.

 

So I think you should go with 1.4-1.6Billion range for Avengers 2. Lowest I see Avengers 2 making is 1.3B

Bet that AOU will make 1.3B+ 1.3B would mean 450M/850M you really think it will decrease 170M+ DOM? That would be around a 160M-170M OW.

 

[Neo]

Come to think of it Kal, at the time when this movie was coming out, I really didn't give 2 fucks about it and it was only when it made the $$$ it did, that I took notice, but in the end, that's pretty bad that this is what get's a person to notice this movie is the box office more than the movie itself.. You've pretty well declared victory already with AVATAR 2 beating TA2 without any consideration for the fact that at the moment, TA is more popular than AVATAR which is basically never mentioned for a movie that made what it did.. To me, that doesn't bode all that well for a sequel you claim will make 3 to 5 Billion dollars WW..

Its not about now, lets talk 3 months before their releases to judge hype. Kal's predict is 3.6B, not 5B.

 

[Cosmonaut]

Well, Avatar's $2,8b is more than $3,5b in Dec. 2016, so anything less than $2,5b($350m in China) should be considered a failure, and i think they're aiming for that number, keeping in mind that product quality will be on par with the first part or better...

[Gokai Red]

I think its possible TA2 can make between 1.4-1.7... It wont touch Titanics original gross though.

Avatar is going to make far more than 2.2 billion, though thats a good prediction Gokai.. It took Avengers and 3d and 300+% more 3d  screens in 3D around the world to even get to 1.5 billion...You really think when Avatar was lorded as the greatest movie experience in  history by ages 7-80+ all over the world that its OS market wont achieve far more than Avatar 1..

 

 

That is not likely...OS Avatar 2 alone will gross 2.4-3billion ..The domestic will determine how close to 4billion or over will A2 go.

 

I see an increase thanks to the OS gross by at least  400 Milllion. So A2 on the lowend should either make the same as A1 or at least 3.17B.. If its follows Camerons typical reception for mega epics.. My 3.6B WW predict will be blown away.

 

Rem  Cameron's magic at filmmaking over the  smaller behemoths everytime Gokai.

Your gigantic ranges are annoying, and I'd appreciate it if you didn't talk down on me as if I were a child. And I'd love to see where you got that 300+% 3D screens thing.

 

Let's see some predictions from you, and some reasoning behind it.

 

I predict Age of Ultron will do about 580/1200/1780 for the following reasons:

-sequels to movies that grossed over 400m have never grossed more than their immediate predecessor, with one exception, six if you adjust (Catching Fire, Dead Man's Chest, The Two Towers, The Return of the King, Revenge of the Sith, and Return of the Jedi). Even then, most of those movies grossed in the 400-500 range, which is much easier to improve upon than 620

-a larger OW than seems likely, although with slightly weaker legs

-now that the OS audience has been hooked on Marvel (look at IM3's 806 compared to Avengers' 895), I see at least a slight decrease in developed markets (similar to DOM), although a larger increase in developing markets that will make up for it

 

I predict Avatar 2 will do about 600/1600/2200 for the following reasons:

-Cameron

-sequels to movies that grossed over 400m have never grossed more than their immediate predecessor, with one exception, six if you adjust (Catching Fire, Dead Man's Chest, The Two Towers, The Return of the King, Revenge of the Sith, and Return of the Jedi). Even then, most of those movies grossed in the 400-500 range, which is much easier to improve upon than 760

-there has never been a sequel to a biggest of all time movie that increased in a developed market, so I predict ~20% decreases in most major markets, and although the developing markets will increase, the 3D shares will be lower

-building on that, the 3D craze that the original Avatar started is slowly dying, and by the time the sequel comes out (7 years), 3D may be even less appealing

-building on that, the bigger the gap between installments, usually, the harder it is to match or surpass the original, unadjusted

 

This isn't about one movie doing better than the other. I accessed both movies individually, and this is what I came up with. So I think your A2 beating AOU by 2.2B thing is bullshit.

 

Let's see your argument.

[Neo]

Well, Avatar's $2,8b is more than $3,5b in Dec. 2016, so anything less than $2,5b($350m in China) should be considered a failure, and i think they're aiming for that number, keeping in mind that product quality will be on par with the first part or better...

Are you sure on that? As we know inflation always works, right?

 

[Neo]

-a larger OW than seems likely, although with slightly weaker legs-building on that, the 3D craze that the original Avatar started is slowly dying, and by the time the sequel comes out (7 years), 3D may be even less appealing

 

-building on that, the bigger the gap between installments, usually, the harder it is to match or surpass the original, unadjusted

Bigger OW then okay, with a 230M OW and a 2.71X 623M is going down.

 

Who says 3D will be the only thing there is, its Cameron. Slowly dying?

 

Unadjusted/adjusted who cares over Avatar is all that matters. 

[lilmac]

3 feature length films made at once.  Only been done twice before. This is going to be a huge commitment for those making the movie.  Prayers for the health and well-being (mental, physical) of the cast and crew.  

[htall90]

Your gigantic ranges are annoying, and I'd appreciate it if you didn't talk down on me as if I were a child. And I'd love to see where you got that 300+% 3D screens thing.

 

Let's see some predictions from you, and some reasoning behind it.

 

I predict Age of Ultron will do about 580/1200/1780 for the following reasons:

-sequels to movies that grossed over 400m have never grossed more than their immediate predecessor, with one exception, six if you adjust (Catching Fire, Dead Man's Chest, The Two Towers, The Return of the King, Revenge of the Sith, and Return of the Jedi). Even then, most of those movies grossed in the 400-500 range, which is much easier to improve upon than 620

-a larger OW than seems likely, although with slightly weaker legs

-now that the OS audience has been hooked on Marvel (look at IM3's 806 compared to Avengers' 895), I see at least a slight decrease in developed markets (similar to DOM), although a larger increase in developing markets that will make up for it

 

I predict Avatar 2 will do about 600/1600/2200 for the following reasons:

-Cameron

-sequels to movies that grossed over 400m have never grossed more than their immediate predecessor, with one exception, six if you adjust (Catching Fire, Dead Man's Chest, The Two Towers, The Return of the King, Revenge of the Sith, and Return of the Jedi). Even then, most of those movies grossed in the 400-500 range, which is much easier to improve upon than 760

-there has never been a sequel to a biggest of all time movie that increased in a developed market, so I predict ~20% decreases in most major markets, and although the developing markets will increase, the 3D shares will be lower

-building on that, the 3D craze that the original Avatar started is slowly dying, and by the time the sequel comes out (7 years), 3D may be even less appealing

-building on that, the bigger the gap between installments, usually, the harder it is to match or surpass the original, unadjusted

 

This isn't about one movie doing better than the other. I accessed both movies individually, and this is what I came up with. So I think your A2 beating AOU by 2.2B thing is bullshit.

 

Let's see your argument.

Good predictions But i think TA2 could increase in some develop markets as it was big but not huge in some markets and is very well loved like the UK for example.

 

I think your Avatar 2 prediction is very good but i think drops in major develop will be harder like 30% or more but thanks to developing markets it will make a similar amount OS.