Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Elessar]

40 minutes ago, Kalel009Shel said:

Elessar we've seen your posts.  You and bkb should never call anyone crazy.  

 

I get lumped together with bkb. What an honor!

[75Live]

1 hour ago, Kalel009Shel said:

PS I doubt kal has even 800 posts In here.  ?. In the old days we have debates that span 300 pages. 

 

 

talking in third person, or was this an accidental slip that he was supposed to be posting as of the the new people and forgot what account he was under?  

[baumer]

If you think avatar dropping 25% from the first film is unrealistic then you seriously have no clue how to track box office. That is not me being arrogant or cocky, that is just the truth. There are very very very rare exceptions of giant movies increasing in the sequel. It just doesn't happen. And because avatar smashed records it's just virtually impossible for it to increase domestically. Internationally I have no idea what could happen. I do know that the exchange rates will be less than what they were before and the dollar will be weaker in a lot of markets so that automatically gives it a good chance of dropping. So don't tell me that my numbers are unrealistic. They are very realistic.

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, 75live said:

 

talking in third person, or was this an accidental slip that he was supposed to be posting as of the the new people and forgot what account he was under?  

 

I'm not Kal I'm James Cameron

 

[Kalel009Shel]

Unlike you Bauer I work in market research PT. so I get to meet people and get inside info.  This is newyork and nothing new.  That's how I was amongst thevfirst to talk about they are likely going to do another 200 plus screen avatar day and may have sort of park event.  I may even get to meet Cameron.  Which I will post on my FB if  it happens. I get to share ideas for brands and shows and yummy get to meet unique people.  Love what I do. And glad I'm back in the field PT.  ?

 

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Baumer Fett said:

If you think avatar dropping 25% from the first film is unrealistic then you seriously have no clue how to track box office. That is not me being arrogant or cocky, that is just the truth. There are very very very rare exceptions of giant movies increasing in the sequel. It just doesn't happen. And because avatar smashed records it's just virtually impossible for it to increase domestically. Internationally I have no idea what could happen. I do know that the exchange rates will be less than what they were before and the dollar will be weaker in a lot of markets so that automatically gives it a good chance of dropping. So don't tell me that my numbers are unrealistic. They are very realistic.

 

If you're talking to me aswell as Kal I only said your predictions were lower end, I never said they weren't realistic.

 

[baumer]

Kal I'm a bus driver and I understand how the box office works better than you do. What the hell does market research have to do with understanding that a film that set records by reaching the zeitgeist of any possible box office numbers is obviously going to have a fall and its next film? It doesn't matter what job you work that is just logic.

[Elessar]

19 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

2.16 billion is a lower end prediction of what it could make

 

It's a very reasonable prediction. I'm pretty sure it'll drop in most of the established markets. Mainly China will somewhat make up for that. Maybe if China makes some crazy numbers, only then i can see the sequel reaching the original.

 

Hey, i hope i'm wrong but sequels to phenomenon have always dropped. Happened with Star Wars, will happen to the new Star Wars and also Avatar. You just can't sustain the phenomenal you-have-to-see-this wom, at some point it becomes more of the same.

[baumer]

And how did your market research work out for you in terms of Godzilla and Superman Returns Your Dragon Ball Z just to name of a 3 of a litany of movies that you completely screwed up on it.

[Elessar]

6 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

I'm not Kal I'm James Cameron

 

 

He needs to grow a beard again. Makes him way cooler.

[The Futurist]

Filmmakers with beards are always cooler, there s a theory about this I think.

Edited December 30, 2015 by The Futurist

[Kalel009Shel]

Does anyone think baumersfetts domestic number is possible or based on logic of ultimo which was a dissapointed to fans.  James lives up to what we expect.  Lol why would avtr 2 drop near 30% when everything from hv to praise of the film and it's director points to an increase.  Baumerfett is using logic by ignoring avtr was in 3500 tcs and ultron was in nearly 4500.

Smh. 

[75Live]

9 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

I'm not Kal I'm James Cameron

 

 

 

I didn't quote you, so this would be another point that someone is getting their accounts confused  

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, 75live said:

 

I didn't quote you, so this would be another point that someone is getting their accounts confused  

[IronJimbo]

5 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

Filmmakers with beards are always cooler, there s a theory about this I think.

 

Agreed

[baumer]

My number is logical based on historical data

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Baumer Fett said:

My number is logical based on historical data

Avatar opened to 2700 theatres, Avatar 2 will open to 4000+. Avatar wasn't based on any exisiting franchise, Avatar 2 will have fans coming in.

 

1	The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King	NL	$377,027,325
2	The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers	NL	$339,789,881
3	The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring	NL	$313,364,114

[75Live]

2 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said:

My number is logical based on historical data

 

 

 

 

[Kalel009Shel]

PS thanks Ethan, Jimbo and fmpro.  Some posters here hate when I point out how flawed their logic is. Then when I win,  they're stratching their heads.  And you notice I'm 96% civil on here.  Even when in defending my point or my franchise.  Happy New Year my friends and everyone.  Loving the discussion and looks like Jedi's spoke to soon about awakens beating out titanic in the all time spot to be number 2 lol.  Not today

 

 

[baumer]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

Avatar opened to 2700 theatres, Avatar 2 will open to 4000+. Avatar wasn't based on any exisiting franchise, Avatar 2 will have fans coming in.

 

1	The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King	NL	$377,027,325
2	The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers	NL	$339,789,881
3	The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring	NL	$313,364,114

 

Far far far from record setting films.