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CAYOM Y9: Part 2- Predictions

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    Well, since Numbers hasn't done it yet...

     

    This is the thread where you predict the Box Office for Year 9 films. At the moment, we're only doing January, but February and March should be open in a couple of days.

     

    So go ahead and predict.

    Edited by Rukaio Alter
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    And I shall start off with my usual indepth predictions.

     

    January 4-6th

     

    Being from a relatively well-known Horror franchise, my bet is for Samara to take the weekend. However, I question whether it’ll break out much, especially after the recent success of another more famous horror franchise, Dracula, less than a month ago. In addition, the reviews are unlikely to be very good, considering Film’s usual horror fare (no offense), so it’ll be more frontloaded than usual.  

     

    I expect Ship of Lies will do well for itself. Mysteries are relatively uncommon and it’s a breath of fresh air from the Winter fare. And it’s different enough from the two horrors to survive the competition pretty easily. Naturally, being a January release coming after a huge Christmas (although also an empty NY weekend), along with a cast of mostly unknowns, means it’s unlikely to break out massively, but it should do well enough.

     

    Mine, on the other hand, is probably going to get buried by Samara, Dracula and Alice in Horrorland. It’s a pretty uninteresting title and premise and found footage is rarely very popular. I’d be surprised if this cracks a $5mil OW

     

    Samara- $22.1m

    Ship of Lies- $18.7m

    Mine- $3.2m

     

    January 11-13

     

    Honestly, I think Alice in Horrorland could be a pretty big breakout. There’s not that much in the way of interesting horror fare this quarter. In addition, it has a lot of big budget action in it to draw those outside the usual horror demographic. And, considering the success of the Burton film and American McGee’s Alice (especially the latter for the creepy reinterpretation fare) Alice in Wonderland is still a popular property.

     

    Tortoise Run, on the other hand, is coming off a pretty packed Winter with some big family hits, especially The Little Mermaid. January is not the best spot for animations and it doesn’t have anything appealing enough to help it break out.

     

    Alice in Horrorland- $31.6m

    Tortoise Run- $15.4m

     

    January 18-21

     

    I’m somewhat iffy about how well Among the Hidden will do. On the one hand, it’s coming off a successful first film. On the other hand, it’s a swap from a prime November spot to January, which is never the strongest month for a release. In addition, I think the GA will have become fatigued from all these dramatic Oscar-y films after winter. The somewhat-similar The Giver’s success won’t help any. Of course, it’s still probably going to open reasonably well, considering the popularity of the first film. I just don’t think it’ll do as well as the first. Legs should be probably be good though.

     

    Dystopia could do alright. Parodies are pretty rare. On the other hand, many of the films parodied are probably going to become dated pretty quickly. I’d say it performs along the level of a Seltzer/Friedberg comedy.

     

    Among the Hidden- $28.1m/$36.1m

    Dystopia, Usa- $7.5m/$10.2m

     

    January 25-27

     

    Honestly… I’m not entirely sure about these two (Change of Heart & Skyjumper). Both could do well. Both could flop. On the one hand, I think Change of Heart may get better reviews. On the other hand, Skyjumper may find it easier to draw in casual audiences with its extreme sports. Coming off the back end of Oscar season, I doubt either will break out too much though.

     

    As for The Last Six re-release, I doubt it’ll be that big. I don’t think there’s really enough to persuade people to watch it in cinemas rather than just watching it on DVD or on Netflix.

     

    Skyjumper- $12.2m

    Change of Heart- $11.8m

    The Last Six- $2.7m

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    Among the Imposters isn't meant to be Oscar-y :lol: Still nice predicts, always like reading analysis

     

    Only reason Last Six rerelease even happened is because I want to avoid a STID/HTTYD2 drop-off in the five year gap haha

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    January 4-6

    Three movies open on the first weekend of Year 9, which is obviously going to be a bit of a power struggle. Samara, with it’s franchise ties, will obviously open in first place, but may fall off quickly due to a possible front-loaded opening. Still, it should perform well this weekend with $25-27 million. Ship of Lies may also do well with the adult crowd, so $14-16 million seems reasonable. Mine is definitely going to get buried under Samara, so expect a terrible $3-6 million.

     

    January 11-13

    Alice in Horrorland, due to it's original premise, could break out, but Samara's opening may weigh it down. I'm putting $19-22 million out there, though if good reception comes its way, it should have better than average legs. Tortoise Run isn't a high profile animation, so I'm expecting a Nut Job-esque opening of $13-15 million.

     

    January 18-21 (MLK Weekend)

    Among the Imposters will be the first big tentpole of the year. It may decrease from the original due to January not being a huge blockbuster month, but it will be a large opening. It could earn $41-44 million and over $55 million for the three and four day weekend. Dystopia, USA could get crushed or be a comedy breakout. It safe to say it will open to $15-19 million for the three-day weekend and $20-24 million for the four-day weekend.

     

    January 25-27

    Either Skyjumper or Change of Heart will take the top spot, with $21-26 million for each. The Last Six 3D re-release may help boost attention for the The Return of the Last Six film this April, but that doesn't immediatly equal success, so it could earn around $10-14 million.

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    Samara- 30.3/57.2Ship of lies- 12.8/50.1Mine- 2.6/4Alice in horrorland- 37/84Tortoise run- 14/40Among the imposters- 35.3/108Dystopia, USA- 14/37 (think this will struggle at CAYOM box office but will earn a massive cult following)Skyjumper- 31/110 (big breakout)Change of heart- 14/43The last six 3D- 7/13

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    February and March are both open for predictions. As usual, I'll start things off with my February predicts.

     

    February 1-3

     

    I’m not entirely sure how Numbers Theory will play out. Don't get me wrong, it's going to do well, since Liam Neeson action movies are all the range nowadays and Neeson’s winning of the Best Actor Oscar will only help it, but just how well I'm not too sure, especially since it may be damaged by the release of Chuck Norris vs Liam Neeson in a couple of months. At the moment, I’m thinking it’ll play out slightly better than Non-Stop. It should definitely have very good legs though if other reviews are like mine, especially since it doesn’t have much in the way of direct competition. It may even be the first to break $100m DOM this year, if Among the Hidden doesn't perform above my expectations.

     

    Slenderman, on the other hand, is coming off a critically panned first film that wasn’t too popular with audiences either (if the C Cinemascore was any indication). I don’t think it’ll improve on the first film’s total.

     

    Numbers Theory- $31.5m

    Slenderman: The Search- $14.8m

     

    February 8-10

     

    Walking Alone should take this weekend quite handily, considering the popularity of the last film (which opened on the same date). And, while Among the Hidden and Numbers Theory both have a decent chance of doing so, this is the first film of the year that I’m all but certain will pass $100m DOM. I can see the legs for this being good and it should be able to hold well against Teen Titans next week.

     

    Ice Desert I’m not too sure about, but animations don’t play that great in February either. (The only recent exception being The Lego Movie which had a fantastic marketing campaign, an established brand name and outstanding reviews. Which Ice Desert (presumably) will have none of.) At the moment, I’m thinking somewhere between Escape from Planet Earth and Gnomeo and Juliet’s OW.

     

    Sweet Disposition is probably going to be buried by the competition. Not expecting a high total there.

     

    Walking Alone- $42.5m

    Ice Desert- $19.7m

    Sweet Disposition- $6.9m

     

    February 15-18

     

    Teen Titans has everything going for it to be the first big smash hit of Y9. After a Superhero-free Y8 and Justice League in Y7, the audience is going to be hungry for a new Superhero flick. In addition, being the first big-budget blockbuster of the year and based off a pretty recognisable superhero property will definitely help. $60m 3-day OW is pretty much the floor, IMO.

     

    While I doubt The Best of You will be hurt much by the competition with Teen Titans, since they differ plenty, I do think it will be hurt by Walking Alone’s near certain success the previous week. So my expectations for it are not all that high. I think it’ll probably do better than Sweet Disposition though.

     

    The Cave isn’t likely to do that well either, especially since it’s coming off the back end of the Horror Season and fatigue will likely have set in.  

     

    Teen Titans- $71.2/83.1m

    The Best of You- $10.5(3 day)/13.7m(4 day)/16.8m(5 day)

    The Cave- $5.8/7.2m

     

    February 22-24

     

    Despite being stuck between two large blockbusters and after a big weekend, I think Phoenix Wright should be able to hold its own well. It has a pretty original yet intriguing premise that should help it stand out from the competition. In addition, it has an all-star cast with box office draws like Benedict Cumberbatch and Tom Cruise and the video games have a very dedicated fanbase. That said I still don’t see too big an opening considering the competition. I think its legs will be its strongest point, since it doesn’t really clash with any major release in the next few weeks.

     

    As for Childhood Ruined 2, ‘The Sequel You Didn’t Ask For’ is a very accurate tagline. The first film opened dismally, was poorly received and I see no reason the sequel should be any different.

     

    Phoenix Wright- $24.7m

    Childhood Ruined 2- $5.3m

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    February 1-3

    Liam Neeson action movies are always pretty popular, and Numbers Theory will be the rule rather than the exception. It is the first real action movie of the year, and Liam Neeson's recent Oscar win won't slow Numbers Theory down. It should earn around $24-28 million. Slenderman: The Search is the sequel to Slenderman: The Beginning, which opened to $29 million even amid a glut of January horror movies. It did earn a "C" CinemaScore, which isn't a great indication that the sequel will do much better. I think $17-20 million seems likely, but on the film's $5 million, another follow-up would be guaranteed.

     

    February 8-10

    Even with Channing Tatum's presence rendered minimal from Walking With You, Walking Alone will still be a hit. It will definitely open above it's predecessor's $34 million. Since families will probably go after Teen Titans next week, Ice Desert may have some trouble this weekend. It should open around $23-26 million, which would be a disappointing figure for a high-budget animated effort. Sweet Disposition will also suffer from it's crowd being taken by Walking Alone, so $11-15 million is likely.

     

    February 15-18 (President's Day Weekend)

    Teen Titans is going to be a smash, taking both families, adults and college-aged kids. It could open with a Pokemon-style opening of $67-72 million for the three-day weekend, and $80-85 million for the four-day weekend. For college-aged kids probably seeking more thrilling attractions, The Cave could do fairly well. However, the recent glut in horror will prevent it from truly being a success. It should open with $18-22 million for the three-day weekend and $27-31 million for the four-day weekend. The Best of You is getting eaten up by Walking Alone from last weekend, and it will only open around $8-9 million for the three-day weekend, and $11-13 million for the four-day weekend. Kenneth Branagh documentary The Tudors is opening up in 116 locations this weekend also, and since a platform release is being set up for The Tudors, it should open up with over $1 million.

     

    February 22-24

    Pheonix Wright: Ace Attorney - Part 1 will probably be a good draw among older audiences, so I'm thinking around $18-21 million. Childhood Ruined 2 will only be a blip, with $6-8 million. The Tudors is also going wide this weekend, and it most likely will make $4-5 million in wide release.

    Edited by Alpha
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    March 1-3

    Legacy of the Joestars: Phantom Blood will take the top spot this weekend. It won't reach very large heights, but it could earn $42-46 million this weekend. If... is probably going to be a decent opener for a high-budgeted animated movie, with $38-41 million. Terrence Malick's Island of Dreams opens up in 7 theaters, and should gain quite some buzz. It could open to around $350,000-400,000, a high number for a limited release.

     

    March 8-10

    Conventionally Wiser and Where You Imagine will either take the top spot, unless Legacy of the Joestars has a good hold, with $19-23 million each.

     

    March 15-17

    A good comparison for The Thin, The Fat and the Felon is Miserable Fans, another Edgar Wright picture which opened to a great $31 million on Memorial Day weekend. TTTFATF will stay in that same range, with $29-33 million. Black Cat will also do well this weekend, with around $25-28 million.

     

    March 22-24

    The Red Pyramid has a lot going for it, with a well-rounded ensemble cast and an accessible plot. The film strikes a resemblance to Amulet, another fantasy epic which opened to $48 million. Amulet, however, was animated, released to critical acclaim, and it's opening became nothing compared to it's fantastic overall run. With more fans of Rick Riordan's Kane Chronicles series than fans of Kazu Kibushi's Amulet series, The Red Pyramid will have an impressive opening of $62-65 million, but with shorter legs. Peace at Last is probably going to suffer in this case. While rated PG-13, The Red Pyramid definitely has a predominantely pre-teen audiences, and it will be a good attraction for families this weekend. Peace At Last appeals to the much younger Hush Hush, Little Baby crowd, which earned a terrible $7 million in Year 8. With over 4,000 theaters and a broader marketing push, Peace At Last will definitely do better, but maybe around $16-18 million is the best case.

     

    March 29-31

    Our Future is probably going to disappoint. Even with Michael Bay and an A-list cast, it will become another Martian Chronicles, which bombed with $38 million. Thankfully, Our Future has half of that movie's budget, so it'll recoup its failure here worldwide. However, expect only $33-36 million. Island of Dreams also goes wide this weekend, and should earn $3-5 million, on par for a limited release.

    Edited by Alpha
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    Bah. Alpha beat me to March. Ah well, my some of my predictions differ a lot from his.

     

    March 1-3

     

    I think both Joestar and If should do pretty damn well for each other. They don’t clash much, Joestar being a period action blockbuster skewing adult-wise and If being a family friendly adventure fantasy, and there’s not much in the way of direct competition out at the moment. Joestar is likely to have the bigger opener but I expect If, being an animation, to have better legs.

     

    Joestar has the advantage of being the second big blockbuster of the year (after Teen Titans) as well as kicking off the March season. In addition, the massive success of Dracula has shown that audiences still enjoy the classic vampires. And the manga it’s based on is pretty popular as well, being a major inspiration for games like Castlevania.

     

    As for If, March has always been a pretty good month for animations and If is easily the more appealing option for audiences this month. Considering that the GA hasn’t had an appealing animation option at all so far this year (sorry Films), I expect this’ll play well. At the moment, I’m predicting an opening around on line with HTTYD and The Croods. Legs should be good, considering the lack of strong competition until The Magic School Bus in April.

     

    Legacy of the Joestars: Phantom Blood- $52.8m

    If…- $41.2m

     

    March 8-10

     

    Where You Imagine…… I don’t have high hopes for it. It has a major problem is that it doesn’t seem to know who its audience is. It doesn’t really have much action or adventure for action aficionados. There’s too many fantastical elements for drama lovers. And the whole cancer/sexual stuff will drive away families. So basically, it doesn’t really appeal to any section of the major moviegoing public. Add that to a very generic title and my expectations are low.

     

    Conventionally Wiser, on the other hand, should at the least play around the same level as its predecessor, probably higher. I don’t think there’s that much in direct competition with it (the closest being Black Cat, but that still has a large number of differences (Wiser being much grimmer, more realistic, low budget, stuck to one building action)). Legs probably won’t be the best though, especially once Norris/Neeson enter the scene.

     

    Conventionally Wiser- $22.4m

    Where You Imagine- $18.1m

     

    March 15-17

     

    I’m not too sure how well these two will play together. One’s an action with elements of comedy, the other is a comedy with elements of action. They could coexist peacefully or they could violently clash.

     

    Out of the two, Black Cat is undoubtedly going to be the winner though. Westerns are a much more of a niche genre nowadays and Black Cat has a much wider appeal than TTTF&TF, which mainly targets fans of Westerns and films like the Cornetto Trilogy. Edgar Wright may be very beloved on film forums, but Scott Pilgrim has shown how that doesn’t necessarily translate into box office dollars. In addition, the last comedy Western (in real life) didn’t exactly do great at the box office. On the other hand, TTTF&TF is likely to have much better reviews, so I don’t think it’ll do that bad no matter what happens. Especially since legs are probably going to be fantastic.

     

    Black Cat, on the other hand, has plenty going for it to do well. An interesting premise, a solid fanbase from the anime/manga, appeal to teens and adults and little in the way of direct competition before or after its release.

     

    Black Cat-$38.6m

    The Thin The Fat & The Felon- $22.9m

     

    March 22-24

     

    I just can’t see The Red Pyramid doing well. It’s a remake to a film barely 4 years old with more than half the same cast and mostly the same story. For all people bitch about TASM, at least that had a new main story and a different way of telling the stuff we already knew. This just feels like a re-release with a few small changes and I’m sure the GA will agree.

     

    Peace at Last, on the other hand, could plausibly do well, but I think it’ll only really appeal to very young children. In addition, it faces serious competition in the form of If and The Magic School Bus in a few weeks.

     

    Peace at Last- $18.6m

    The Red Pyramid- $12.8m

     

    March 29-31

     

    Our Future, I don’t really see doing that well. It’ll probably be pretty overshadowed by Norris/Neeson next weekend and I can see reviews being pretty dismal. Still might make a decent amount though.

     

    Our Future- $28.8m

    Edited by Rukaio Alter
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    March 8-10

     

    Where You Imagine…… I don’t have high hopes for it. It has a major problem is that it doesn’t seem to know who its audience is. It doesn’t really have much action or adventure for action aficionados. There’s too many fantastical elements for drama lovers. And the whole cancer/sexual stuff will drive away families. So basically, it doesn’t really appeal to any section of the major moviegoing public. Add that to a very generic title and my expectations are low.

     

    Conventionally Wiser- $22.4m

    Where You Imagine- $18.1m

    The target of Where you imagine are teenagers

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    The target of Where you imagine are teenagers

    What kind of teenagers? Teenagers who like action? Teenagers who like drama? Teenagers who like fantasy? Because, as I mentioned, it doesn't really appeal to any of those.

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    What kind of teenagers? Teenagers who like action? Teenagers who like drama? Teenagers who like fantasy? Because, as I mentioned, it doesn't really appeal to any of those.

    A bit of each. Do you have a total prediction?

    Edited by Blink23
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    March 22-24

     

    I just can’t see The Red Pyramid doing well. It’s a remake to a film barely 4 years old with more than half the same cast and mostly the same story. For all people bitch about TASM, at least that had a new main story and a different way of telling the stuff we already knew. This just feels like a re-release with a few small changes and I’m sure the GA will agree.

     

    Peace at Last, on the other hand, could plausibly do well, but I think it’ll only really appeal to very young children. In addition, it faces serious competition in the form of If and The Magic School Bus in a few weeks.

     

    Peace at Last- $18.6m

    The Red Pyramid- $12.8m

     

     

    Peace at Last- $18.6m

    The Red Pyramid- $12.8m  

     

     

    $12.8m

     

    Posted Image

     

    Something about this "prediction" makes me shit my pants in anger and in laughter.

     

    I mean, holy fucking shit. Martian Chronicles in year 7 was panned by critics and earned $38 million on the same weekend. The Red Pyramid, which is a film I put a lot more effort into considering it's twenty motherfucking thousand words, budgeted at $150 million, will now earn $12 million on it's opening weekend.

     

    Posted Image

     

    And sorry if I haven't made it more clear, but it's not in my opinion a remake, but a reimagining to help stray myself away from a Wikipedia C+P. But even then, fucking $12 million.

     

    Sorry, you must have been drunk while writing that. I apologize.

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    Posted Image

     

    Something about this "prediction" makes me shit my pants in anger and in laughter.

     

    I mean, holy fucking shit. Martian Chronicles in year 7 was panned by critics and earned $38 million on the same weekend. The Red Pyramid, which is a film I put a lot more effort into considering it's twenty motherfucking thousand words, budgeted at $150 million, will now earn $12 million on it's opening weekend.

     

    Posted Image

     

    And sorry if I haven't made it more clear, but it's not in my opinion a remake, but a reimagining to help stray myself away from a Wikipedia C+P. But even then, fucking $12 million.

     

    Sorry, you must have been drunk while writing that. I apologize.

    It's a movie you already released in Y5. Claiming you're 'reimagining it' doesn't make that movie suddenly go away or the implications of it. Had you not released it in Y5, I'd agree with projections of maybe $55-65mil, but since you did and there's not nearly enough major changes in casting/plot to make the GA consider watching it again in cinemas rather than on DVD, I can't see it doing all that much better than a typical re-release.

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    It's a movie you already released in Y5. Claiming you're 'reimagining it' doesn't make that movie suddenly go away or the implications of it. Had you not released it in Y5, I'd agree with projections of maybe $55-65mil, but since you did and there's not nearly enough major changes in casting/plot to make the GA consider watching it again in cinemas rather than on DVD, I can't see it doing all that much better than a typical re-release.

    I can't change the past, so I can't travel in time to late 2012 and make sure the Y5 version never existed for the benefit of my Y9 version. I didn't know I'd want to rework it because I was a newbie to this game, and I was both an asshole and a retard back then, thinking everything I did was perfection. And it was around mid-2013, after Year 5 that I realized my adaptation was a fucking joke. I tried to write the sequel to The Red Pyramid (the Throne of Fire), but I messed up so badly that I deemed a sequel unfeasable.I would never make a remake 4 years after the original in real life. But this is CAYOM. Note the subtitle on the main page: "let your imagination run wild." This game has always been about what we as writers can do, and has never been about replicating the logistics of the real world. It's about how we can improve ourselves as writers (even if you didn't think too highly of The Red Pyramid), and not about what the make-believe "general audience" thinks about out movies.The Y9 Red Pyramid is a plot to kill my old self, and get rid of my failing self from Year 5. It's a symbol of how I wanted to change, and how I wanted to try and make myself among the greatest writers of this game. So even if you think that $12 million is the best fucking prediction for this movie, consider what I've said above.
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    I can't change the past, so I can't travel in time to late 2012 and make sure the Y5 version never existed for the benefit of my Y9 version. I didn't know I'd want to rework it because I was a newbie to this game, and I was both an asshole and a retard back then, thinking everything I did was perfection. And it was around mid-2013, after Year 5 that I realized my adaptation was a fucking joke. I tried to write the sequel to The Red Pyramid (the Throne of Fire), but I messed up so badly that I deemed a sequel unfeasable.

    I would never make a remake 4 years after the original in real life. But this is CAYOM. Note the subtitle on the main page: "let your imagination run wild." This game has always been about what we as writers can do, and has never been about replicating the logistics of the real world. It's about how we can improve ourselves as writers (even if you didn't think too highly of The Red Pyramid), and not about what the make-believe "general audience" thinks about out movies.

    The Y9 Red Pyramid is a plot to kill my old self, and get rid of my failing self from Year 5. It's a symbol of how I wanted to change, and how I wanted to try and make myself among the greatest writers of this game. So even if you think that $12 million is the best fucking prediction for this movie, consider what I've said above.

    Okay, I can understand you wanting to improve on an adaptation you're quite unhappy about and don't have any problem with that. But you've already done that. You've already written your new improved adaptation and how it performs at the box office won't change that you've done that. That's what CAYOM's about. Writing projects that wouldn't normally get greenlit in the real world and having fun doing it.

     

    But the CAYOM Box Office is based on reality and how these films would perform if released in the real world. And you can't just ignore reality when it's inconvenient to you. If something fails at the box office or doesn't turn out as you'd like it, that's tough and all but you've got to move on. You can't just ignore it and keep doing what you want to do with it otherwise what's the point of having the Box Office in the first place? A game has to have some sense of risk or failure. And you can't ignore something that's going to have a major impact on your film's performance just because you're trying to improve yourself. 

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    Okay, I can understand you wanting to improve on an adaptation you're quite unhappy about and don't have any problem with that. But you've already done that. You've already written your new improved adaptation and how it performs at the box office won't change that you've done that. That's what CAYOM's about. Writing projects that wouldn't normally get greenlit in the real world and having fun doing it.

     

    But the CAYOM Box Office is based on reality and how these films would perform if released in the real world. And you can't just ignore reality when it's inconvenient to you. If something fails at the box office or doesn't turn out as you'd like it, that's tough and all but you've got to move on. You can't just ignore it and keep doing what you want to do with it otherwise what's the point of having the Box Office in the first place? A game has to have some sense of risk or failure. And you can't ignore something that's going to have a major impact on your film's performance just because you're trying to improve yourself. 

     

    Let's just agree to disagree. I recognize your claims, just not going to expect $12 million for opening weekend. K?

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    Well, Blank's going to be the only one with the final say in the matter. So we'll just leave it up to him. Which I'm sure won't backfire on him in the slightest.  :ph34r:

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