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Weekend Prediction thread 5/3-5/5 Play the Derby

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Well there is no such thing as a lock for a 200M OW (duh only one film so far lol) (heck no film is even locked for a 150M OW), but if there ever was a near lock this is it!

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AOU - $225/540m

 

I dropped the multiplier to IM3 levels since the critical reception is worse than I ever would have imagined for the sequel. Hopefully I'll be pleasantly surprised and the audience reaction will be far more favourable, getting this closer to the first one.

I have a feeling critics were expecting too much for this, and overrated the first a bit. Both are probably about equal in terms of quality, especially among the general public. 

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1. This One Superhero Film: 230.2

2. Racing Extreme: 7.0

3. Mall Cops on the Run: 6.8

4. So is this the Sequel to the Age of Aquarius?: 5.7

5. Gnome: 4.8

As for the rest...I really have no idea :P

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here is some info on discount second run theaters on 4 theaters in the Southern California region...

the number represents the cumulative total of showtimes for the 4 theaters.

 

McFarland USA - 13 (new)

Do You Believe? - 8 (new)

 

Spongebob - 21 (down 2)

American Sniper - 17 (up 4)

The DUFF - 8 (down 3)

Run All Night - 7 (down 5)

50 Shades of Grey - 6 (same)

Paddington - 3 (down 3)

Focus - 3 (down 5)

Big Hero 6 - 3 (no change)

Imitation Game - 2 (down 8)

Chappie - 2 (down 4)

Lazarus Effect - 2 (no change)

Night at the Museum 3 - 2 (no change)

Into the Woods - 1 (no change)

Jupter Ascending - 1 (no change)

 

GONE:  Taken 3, Still Alice, The Gunman

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I wouldn't be surprised if Hot Pursuit opens in the same range as The Other Woman depending on how much of a boost it gets on Mother's Day. The ad campaign might be a tad too muted for that though, so something around $21M sounds right.

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I wouldn't be surprised if Hot Pursuit opens in the same range as The Other Woman depending on how much of a boost it gets on Mother's Day. The ad campaign might be a tad too muted for that though, so something around $21M sounds right.

good comparisons for it to open decent would be The Other Woman, Tammy, and Honeymoon In Vegas. But I have a feeling that it should open in the same range as This Means War or What To Expect When You"re Expecting instead.
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Hot Pursuit is only on 2,700 theaters. (Wait are they sure this is WB? AKA the studio that makes some of the most oddest films on over 3K theaters???)

Maybe they are largely targeting areas with large Hispanic populations given the presence of Sofia Vergara (she and Reese made a surprise appearance at a screening in Miami the other week).

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Avengers: Age of Ultron Prediction: 

 

~ Opening Weekend: Avengers: Age of Ultron, $187 million 

~ 5/08 - 5/10, Avengers: Age of Ultron, $75 million ($310+ million) 

~ 5/15 - 5/17, Avengers: Age of Ultron, $41 million ($373+ million)

~ 5/22 - 5/24, Avengers: Age of Ultron, $24 million ($411+ million)

~ 5/29 - 5/31, Avengers: Age of Ultron, $18 million ($443+ million)

 

Cumulative: $501+ million 

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Maybe they are largely targeting areas with large Hispanic populations given the presence of Sofia Vergara (she and Reese made a surprise appearance at a screening in Miami the other week).

I was saying that it isn't on as many theaters when compared to most WB films. They are known for having some ridiculous TC's for most of there films.

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