Avengers: Age of Ultron OS Thread | $945.7M OS | $1.405B WW

[peludo]

Franchises that have achieved to have 2 films in the top 5 worlwide at at least one point in time:

 

Star Wars^

Lord of the Rings

Harry Potter (maybe, not sure - can anyone confirm this?)

Pirates of the Caribbean

MCU/Avengers

James Cameron (technically not a franchise but I think it still counts)

 

^includes grosses from re-releases

Curious list. Being strict with BOM WW list we have more cases:

 

Disney: #2 (Bambi), #3 (101 Dalmatians), #4 (Jungle Book) (Quite difficult to prove)

Spielberg: #1 (Jaws), #4 (Close encounters of the third kind)

Star Wars: #1 (SW4), #2 (SW5)

Spielberg: #1 (E.T.), #4 (Jaws)

Star Wars: #2 (SW4), #3 (SW5), #4 (SW6)

Spielberg: #1 (E.T.), #5 (Last Crusade)

Spielberg: #1 (Jurassic Park), #2 (E.T.)

Harry Potter: #2 (HP1), #5 (HP2)

LOTR: #2 (ROTK), #4 (TTT)

Harry Potter: #4 (HP1), #5 (HP5)

POTC: #3 (POTC2), #5 (POTC3)

Cameron: #1 (Avatar), #2 (Titanic)

MCU: #3 (Avengers), #5 (Iron Man 3)

MCU: #3 (Avengers), #5 (Avengers 2)

 

Like you, I have included current grosses for films previous to 80s. Since Jurassic Park, which had had a recent re-release, I have taken into account the gross in each moment (many 3D re-releases that can affect like JP, Lion King, SW1 or Finding Nemo). Probably, there will be many mistakes but it could work as an approximation.

[POTUS 2020]

China was $3m of the $7.5m weekend and $8m of the $15.6m week. Its closing Thursday and will add less than 1m.

OS-CJ with a $4m weekend, and with the way its dropping, will add $8m at best. plus 750k from china at most. call it 9m.

Dom at 2.5x last weekend is 15.5m

Japan would have to sell slightly more tickets for TA2 then TA1 to clear $27.5m to hit $1.4B. 26m is now breakeven for TA2 vs TA1 in Japan in admissions, currency dropped even more. 20m would be down 22% not much worse than some countries like domestic. Bombing would be less than $15m

 

'bout time you have a picture keyser

so you're saying a $4m weekend will procure $15m more even though its dropping like a stone?

enough fudge to open a store

 

Simanton is a hoot, isn't he?

Are you going to write him or shall I?

Edited June 8, 2015 by M F Lawrence

[POTUS 2020]

A look back at predictions before China and Domestic opened but after OS OW

 

 

	OS-C	China	OS	Dom	WW
Alucard	900.0	300.0	1200.0	650.0	1850.0
AxelSteal	950.0	350.0	1300.0	650.0	1950.0
Quigley	840.0	280.0	1120.0	630.0	1750.0
Pypa94	855.0	302.0	1157.0	593.0	1750.0
fmpro	815.0	265.0	1080.0	575.0	1655.0
The Stingray	850.0	300.0	1150.0	500.0	1650.0
Infernus	825.0	285.0	1110.0	565.0	1675.0
Ent	.		1100.0	550.0	1650.0
GokaiRed	825.0	250.0	1075.0	575.0	1650.0
Mattw	800.0	300.0	1100.0	525.0	1625.0
picres	750.0	300.0	1050.0	550.0	1600.0
MikeTheAvenger	850.0	200.0	1050.0	550.0	1600.0
Johnny Storm	810.0	265.0	1075.0	525.0	1600.0
AD3S			1000.0	590.0	1590.0
peludo	750.0	275.0	1025.0	550.0	1575.0
Fake	800.0	250.0	1050.0	500.0	1550.0
Keysersoze	750.0	300.0	1050.0	500.0	1550.0
Deathlife			1010.0	525.0	1535.0
Cynosure	750.0	250.0	1000.0	525.0	1525.0
Katch 22	800.0	200.0	1000.0	520.0	1520.0
M F Lawrence	725.0	250.0	975.0	500.0	1475.0
samsha22	715.0	235.0	950.0	505.0	1455.0
Average	808.4	271.4	1074.0	552.4	1626.4

 

The pessimists win!

 

Samsha takes 4 categories with yours truly taking or tying for second.

 

4 way tie for Domestic, Mo Fo Lawrence,  The Stingray, Fake, and Keysersose.

samsha missed the sweep by 5m. What were you thinking? Low man on almost everything else.

 

[Asyulus]

A look back at predictions before China and Domestic opened but after OS OW

 

 

  OS-C China OS Dom WW Alucard 900.0 300.0 1200.0 650.0 1850.0 AxelSteal 950.0 350.0 1300.0 650.0 1950.0 Quigley 840.0 280.0 1120.0 630.0 1750.0 Pypa94 855.0 302.0 1157.0 593.0 1750.0 fmpro 815.0 265.0 1080.0 575.0 1655.0 The Stingray 850.0 300.0 1150.0 500.0 1650.0 Infernus 825.0 285.0 1110.0 565.0 1675.0 Ent .   1100.0 550.0 1650.0 GokaiRed 825.0 250.0 1075.0 575.0 1650.0 Mattw 800.0 300.0 1100.0 525.0 1625.0 picres 750.0 300.0 1050.0 550.0 1600.0 MikeTheAvenger 850.0 200.0 1050.0 550.0 1600.0 Johnny Storm 810.0 265.0 1075.0 525.0 1600.0 AD3S     1000.0 590.0 1590.0 peludo 750.0 275.0 1025.0 550.0 1575.0 Fake 800.0 250.0 1050.0 500.0 1550.0 Keysersoze 750.0 300.0 1050.0 500.0 1550.0 Deathlife     1010.0 525.0 1535.0 Cynosure 750.0 250.0 1000.0 525.0 1525.0 Katch 22 800.0 200.0 1000.0 520.0 1520.0 M F Lawrence 725.0 250.0 975.0 500.0 1475.0 samsha22 715.0 235.0 950.0 505.0 1455.0             Average 808.4 271.4 1074.0 552.4 1626.4

 

The pessimists win!

 

Samsha takes 4 categories with yours truly taking or tying for second.

 

4 way tie for Domestic, Mo Fo Lawrence,  The Stingray, Fake, and Keysersose.

samsha missed the sweep by 5m. What were you thinking? Low man on almost everything else.

Mine is not there. Why?

[POTUS 2020]

Mine is not there. Why?

I just searched your name on the thread. no prediction comes up, nor any post before may 12. Didn't see it then or it would be on the spreadsheet and I don't see it now.

You know where it is? Quote it.

[kswiston]

China was $3m of the $7.5m weekend and $8m of the $15.6m week. Its closing Thursday and will add less than 1m.

OS-CJ with a $4m weekend, and with the way its dropping, will add $8m at best. plus 750k from china at most. call it 9m.

Dom at 2.5x last weekend is 15.5m

Japan would have to sell slightly more tickets for TA2 then TA1 to clear $27.5m to hit $1.4B. 26m is now breakeven for TA2 vs TA1 in Japan in admissions, currency dropped even more. 20m would be down 22% not much worse than some countries like domestic. Bombing would be less than $15m

 

'bout time you have a picture keyser

 

I've been following these threads for the past few weeks, and while you were right to call Age of Ultron out on poor legs before some of us conceded that, you have been lowballing it pretty consistently since then. I'd have to dig through the thread, but the film has already beat all of your tallies from 3 or so weeks back (when you were suggesting that the film had a shot at missing HP8's total). You had domestic at $430M at one point despite no real reason to suggest that it was going to fall behind Iron Man 3's weekly earnings. 

 

I think both your domestic and overseas remaining tallies are on the pessimistic side of things. We'll have to see about Japan, since that could go either way. $1.4B will be close, but I think it will be close enough for Disney to push it over.

Edited June 9, 2015 by kswiston

[POTUS 2020]

I've been following these threads for the past few weeks, and while you were right to call Age of Ultron out on poor legs before some of us conceded that, you have been lowballing it pretty consistently since then. I'd have to dig through the thread, but the film has already beat all of your tallies from 3 or so weeks back (when you were suggesting that the film had a shot at missing HP8's total). You had domestic at $430M at one point despite no real reason to suggest that it was going to fall behind Iron Man 3's weekly earnings. 

 

I think both your domestic and overseas remaining tallies are on the pessimistic side of things. We'll have to see about Japan, since that could go either way. $1.4B will be close, but I think it will be close enough for Disney to push it over.

the weekends were falling harder than IM3 at first. TA2 beat im3 by 11% OW then only 7% on weekend 2. That was the reason for 430m. It has since held stronger. China was dropping hard and at the same time and looked like it could come in below 220m. OS took a couple of big hits as well. I didn't say it was going to come in under HP8. I said it had a shot, not locked, with all 3 markets and WOM not fairing well.

Plenty of people were still saying at that time, china 260m, OS 1B+, Dom 470m+ with 1.5B having a shot. They were a lot higher than I was low. With stating the outside shot of losing to HP8, which quickly evaporated the following weekend with better holds in all 3 markets, I have held firm at $1.375- 1.4B where it will fall

[Jack]

Those predictions were so random because they were predicted even before anyone had watched the film. The presales, the hypes from media, and especially the record-breaking of F7 in China, are the only major information they used for coming up with those predictions.

[keysersoze123]

Those predictions were so random because they were predicted even before anyone had watched the film. The presales, the hypes from media, and especially the record-breaking of F7 in China, are the only major information they used for coming up with those predictions.

 

Correct. I thought 200-250m before Furious 7 but after F7 opened I did not see why AOU cannot hit 300m. Especially the hype before release was HUGE. But meh WOM killed it in China. its OD was very good.

[POTUS 2020]

Those predictions were so random because they were predicted even before anyone had watched the film. The presales, the hypes from media, and especially the record-breaking of F7 in China, are the only major information they used for coming up with those predictions.

Far from random. Random would 50m-500m. They were in the ballpark any one of them could have hit. no one said over FF7 because of its breakout and knowing there was mixed wom in other markets and 3d only.  Using the info you mentioned plus knowledge of the growth of the market applied to the sequel gets us close.

 

Waiting for people to see it gives us early numbers and that point forward it becomes a projection.

[POTUS 2020]

Correct. I thought 200-250m before Furious 7 but after F7 opened I did not see why AOU cannot hit 300m. Especially the hype before release was HUGE. But meh WOM killed it in China. its OD was very good.

you knew wom was meh in several other markets and 3d only was a handicap when you put in the prediction. go with your original instinct next. that often is the best

[keysersoze123]

you knew wom was meh in several other markets and 3d only was a handicap when you put in the prediction. go with your original instinct next. that often is the best

 

The thing is I thought china loves this shit. TF4 which disappointed in most markets had very good legs in China. Plus it had open 2 weeks with no competition(kept more than 50% of screens). But it surprisingly collapsed on its own.

[POTUS 2020]

The thing is I thought china loves this shit. TF4 which disappointed in most markets had very good legs in China. Plus it had open 2 weeks with no competition(kept more than 50% of screens). But it surprisingly collapsed on its own.

transformers has a history in china, that helped. TA2 is part of a newer thing. Regardless, with that big OD and weekend it still had a shot at 300m and with 2d who knows. 300m wasn't a bad prediction. By the second day, we all thought mid 200's was likely(233.3-266.6) and that's where itll wind up 236~. A lot easier to project after a little data. I was thinking 220's for a while but it held better in the end, but the second day told us where it was going.

[Hernan Gonzalez]

Bolivia joins Mexico and Brazil as the third Latin American market where AoU did better than FF7. Last year winner in this small market was The Hobbit 3 doing half of AoU and FF7 

 

 

	2015 Top Ten	- Bolivia
	Movie	Admissions
1	The Avengers: Age of Ultron	313730
2	Fast & Furious 7	303780
3	San Andreas	111471
4	Night at the Museum 3	102601
5	SpongeBob 2	88960
6	50 Shades of Grey	76759
7	Exodus	70525
8	Cinderella	69512
9	The Seventh Son	58310
10	Mad Max: Fury Road	56527

 

[John Marston]

Can someone pleas post admissions in certain countries between Avengers 1 and 2

[samsha22]

A look back at predictions before China and Domestic opened but after OS OW

OS-C China OS Dom WW Alucard 900.0 300.0 1200.0 650.0 1850.0 AxelSteal 950.0 350.0 1300.0 650.0 1950.0 Quigley 840.0 280.0 1120.0 630.0 1750.0 Pypa94 855.0 302.0 1157.0 593.0 1750.0 fmpro 815.0 265.0 1080.0 575.0 1655.0 The Stingray 850.0 300.0 1150.0 500.0 1650.0 Infernus 825.0 285.0 1110.0 565.0 1675.0 Ent . 1100.0 550.0 1650.0 GokaiRed 825.0 250.0 1075.0 575.0 1650.0 Mattw 800.0 300.0 1100.0 525.0 1625.0 picres 750.0 300.0 1050.0 550.0 1600.0 MikeTheAvenger 850.0 200.0 1050.0 550.0 1600.0 Johnny Storm 810.0 265.0 1075.0 525.0 1600.0 AD3S 1000.0 590.0 1590.0 peludo 750.0 275.0 1025.0 550.0 1575.0 Fake 800.0 250.0 1050.0 500.0 1550.0 Keysersoze 750.0 300.0 1050.0 500.0 1550.0 Deathlife 1010.0 525.0 1535.0 Cynosure 750.0 250.0 1000.0 525.0 1525.0 Katch 22 800.0 200.0 1000.0 520.0 1520.0 M F Lawrence 725.0 250.0 975.0 500.0 1475.0 samsha22 715.0 235.0 950.0 505.0 1455.0 Average 808.4 271.4 1074.0 552.4 1626.4

The pessimists win!

Samsha takes 4 categories with yours truly taking or tying for second.

4 way tie for Domestic, Mo Fo Lawrence, The Stingray, Fake, and Keysersose.

samsha missed the sweep by 5m. What were you thinking? Low man on almost everything else.

So close...i was about to put 450..seeing the optimism of members, i thought it will go big at home....

[Jack]

Far from random. Random would 50m-500m. They were in the ballpark any one of them could have hit. no one said over FF7 because of its breakout and knowing there was mixed wom in other markets and 3d only. Using the info you mentioned plus knowledge of the growth of the market applied to the sequel gets us close.

Waiting for people to see it gives us early numbers and that point forward it becomes a projection.

I don't think the overall prediction was close at all. Only the very low bottoms were close. The average prediction WW of 1.6B to 1.4B actual, 200M+ difference. The whole range of those predictions doesn't even cover the actual. It doesn't literally mean "random". But it's far from being accurate.

[kswiston]

AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON $917.2M Overseas Total / $1.361943B Global Total #Avengers #AgeOfUltron

 

 

$7M overseas in the past week. How much of that was from China?

Edited June 14, 2015 by kswiston

[Purple Minion]

* dup *

Edited June 14, 2015 by PaloMinion

[keysersoze123]

AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON $917.2M Overseas Total / $1.361943B Global Total #Avengers #AgeOfUltron

 

 

$7M overseas in the past week. How much of that was from China?

around 1M. so 6M  from the rest. around 923-925m finish for AOU minus Japan.