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Weekend actuals (Big Hero 6 56.2, Interstellar 47.5)

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That ties in directly with my point about the Hunger Games. Interstellar has a single weekend to hold well and then it's going to lose a lot of screens. Mockingjay will also be targeting a lot of people that might be interested in seeing Interstellar.

 

Are you at least more receptive to the idea that $200m will be a difficult number for it to reach after this past weekend's result? This is essentially 2014's Prometheus. Sub-130 is definitely on the table.

 

Difficult yes. However truly none of us here know exactly how the legs will play out. If Interstellar does poorly next weekend then it's big crow time for me. I accept whatever happens with Interstellar domestically because as a film it exceeded my highest expectations.

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Difficult yes. However truly none of us here know exactly how the legs will play out. If Interstellar does poorly next weekend then it's big crow time for me. I accept whatever happens with Interstellar domestically because as a film it exceeded my highest expectations.

 

That's fair. What's a good drop -- sub-50%? What would a poor drop be, for you?

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That's fair. What's a good drop -- sub-50%? What would a poor drop be, for you?

 

A good drop would be sub-40% given the high IMAX percentage and non-rush factor on OW. A great drop would be sub-30%.

 

A poor drop to me would be above 50%. So basically anything like a 55% or higher drop would be bad. 60% and over drop would be catastrophic.

Edited by ACCA
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Why just shits and giggles? That's quite possible.

I think Interstellar would have to do less $120M and Annie would have to reach that mark for that to happen. The $95M BOM is predicting sounds about right, too much competition over Christmas for it to really breakout.

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Yes, it's one percentage point better. However, with the different release date, a difference that tiny won't mean much. The daily numbers for the next few days aren't going to be exact comparisons: for example, you might get excited at IS holding better (possibly) today and tomorrow, and then get depressed at its horrible fall on Wednesday. Veteran's Day throws things out of whack a bit.

 

no,sir  I certainly will not

 

if IS become boxoffice disaster, that is the rule of survival in movie industry

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I think Interstellar would have to do less $120M and Annie would have to reach that mark for that to happen. The $95M BOM is predicting sounds about right, too much competition over Christmas for it to really breakout.

 

Sub-125 is on the table for Interstellar. The film reminds me of Watchmen in terms of its potential to appeal to mainstream audiences and extremely long runtime. Watchmen opened quite a bit bigger and had terrible legs (sub-2.0). I don't expect quite that bad for Interstellar since it's not an adaptation of a popular book. It should be less frontloaded than Watchmen, but $120-125m or so is definitely on the table.

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Why just shits and giggles? That's quite possible.

 

I am convinced ANNIE's going to over perform. The last trailer made it look like the perfect holiday movie. 

 

$200+ million isn't out of the question.  :ph34r:

 

ETA: B) okay, maybe $160million-170. The movie looks great, okay? 

Edited by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot
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