9 out of 12 months will have a film break its OW record 2015?

[Neo]

lol not difficult? Well no other film in history has done it.

 

Anyways out. 9 is asking way too much

Look at what it would have to do to miss 207M.

[Neo]

 

Yes, of course. But the Friday day may not be as strong for exactly the same reason.

But might be as strong for that very reason.

 

 

[Jessie]

Look at what it would have to do to miss 207M.

 

doesn't matter, it doesn't mean its 'not difficult'

 

Avengers 1 was a gimmick and brought in a lot of non superhero fans. The 'assemble' part hadn't been done before.There's no guarantee that a sequel will generate that much up front demand again, its already been done and the novelty is no longer there.

[Neo]

doesn't matter, it doesn't mean its 'not difficult'

 

Avengers 1 was a gimmick and brought in a lot of non superhero fans. The 'assemble' part hadn't been done before.There's no guarantee that a sequel will generate that much up front demand again, its already been done and the novelty is no longer there.

What about non-fans of CBMs that heard of TA and watch TWS and GOTG that will now watch TA? You know for a fact that all people that will watch AOU OW watched TA's OW? Come on.

Edited February 17, 2015 by Neo

[Jessie]

What about non-fans of CBMs that heard of TA and watch TWS and GOTG that will now watch TA? You know for a fact that all people that will watch AOU OW watched TA's OW? Come on.

 

lol the people who watched Winter Soldier and GOTG are probably the same people who watched TA. Non CBM fans are what made TA open that high in the first place. Doesn't mean they will show up again.

 

Im not saying and increase wont happen, Im just saying it will be difficult.

[Neo]

lol the people who watched Winter Soldier and GOTG are probably the same people who watched TA. Non CBM fans are what made TA open that high in the first place. Doesn't mean they will show up again.

 

Im not saying and increase wont happen, Im just saying it will be difficult.

But can't prove it.

[Jessie]

But can't prove it.

Don't need to, I use this thing called common sense. When the film advertises itself as that 'new Avengers movie' and it opens to the same numbers as every other marvel movie that year, it's obvious they have a similar audience lol

[Neo]

Don't need to, I use this thing called common sense. When the film advertises itself as that 'new Avengers movie' and it opens to the same numbers as every other marvel movie that year, it's obvious they have a similar audience lol

Actually you do. Audiences can grow. You know pre-2012 GOTG would have done most likely sub 60M and now post-Avengers it does 90M+ so new fans were made. You don't know for a fact, yet you think you do that GOTG+TWS could have made new fans/GA to go see AOU OW. I am doing speculation while you are stating this as definite while you don't know seeing this is pre-May 4.

[Clef Ment]

doesn't matter, it doesn't mean its 'not difficult'

 

It's not difficult for the sequel of the movie which broke the OW record to break it again, especially considering that the first one was really well received + growth of the Marvel brand.

[Neo]

It's not difficult for the sequel of the movie which broke the OW record to break it again, especially considering that the first one was really well received + growth of the Marvel brand.

In a matter of moments should get a response from jessie and others.

[SchumacherFTW]

Just putting it out there, no first sequel to a phenomenon has broken the OW record since Jurassic Park 2. Spidey 2 might still have fallen short if it had opened on a Friday. I don't think it's wholly unrealistic to say TA2 could fall on OW, as it seriously stretched what a films upfront attendance can reach, same as Spidey 1 and 3, as well as The Dark Knight did. Plus, like Jessie said, the gimmick isn't likely to work in the same way a second time.

[Jessie]

jesus im not doubting it will do it, im just saying it wont be easy like some of you are suggesting, which is true. People don't actually fathom how massive a 207m OW really is. I say it will be difficult and Neo you are seriously trying to argue it wont be? Its no walk in the park.

Edited February 17, 2015 by jessie

[Ethan Hunt]

Look at what it would have to do to miss 207M.

Decrease from it's predecessor... Not that hard to believe.

[Neo]

Just putting it out there, no first sequel to a phenomenon has broken the OW record since Jurassic Park 2. Spidey 2 might still have fallen short if it had opened on a Friday. I don't think it's wholly unrealistic to say TA2 could fall on OW, as it seriously stretched what a films upfront attendance can reach, same as Spidey 1 and 3, as well as The Dark Knight did. Plus, like Jessie said, the gimmick isn't likely to work in the same way a second time.

 

Or might not have. Look at what it did on Wednesday convert to Friday and what do you get?

[Neo]

jesus im not doubting it will do it, im just saying it wont be easy like some of you are suggesting, which is true. People don't actually fathom how massive a 207m OW really is. I say it will be difficult and Neo you are seriously trying to argue it wont be? Its no walk in the park.

Yes I am.

 

For the 100th time:

25M previews

65M non-previews

90M OD

69M SAT

50M SUN

209M

Is that really difficult? Look at its the May opener plus a Marvel movie, look at TWS/GOTG.

[Clef Ment]

The most difficult thing will be to get a better DOM total than the first one, but I'm confident it will break the OW record.

[druv10]

TA's PTA was crazy off the charts. I doubt that can be replicated, especially with the falling 3D share. That's going to make it difficult for TA2 to match the OW.

 

TA was already a super saturated release. It was in over 4300 theaters. We can probably assume TA2 will get a slight bump at least, but much beyond 4400 is going to be difficult. Still, let's say that TA2 somehow gets the record and shows up in 4500.

 

In order to match TA's OW it would need an PTA north of $46,000. Every ten theaters you drop it below 4500 you need to increase the PTA by about $100. To match. If the PTA starts dropping, well... IM3 managed an amazing 40k per theater and still was over $30m less than TA.

 

So what do you think the PTA is going to be here? I've seen people say $230m. That requires a PTA above $51k. $3500 MORE than TA got. How does it get there? We've only seen an average ticket price increase of about 4% in the past three years. We've got 3D share falling, too. It's not getting all that premium boost.

 

Also, 7 showtimes a day per screen is super optimistic. I doubt most theaters are going to go around the clock (and that's 21hours of theater time right there.) 5 is probably more likely for most. In smaller towns, it's more likely to drop down to 3 or 4. Yes, even for Avengers.

 

Sure, it's possible Avengers 2 will get the record. But all that talk about screen availability basically means that it's going to be playing often enough that anyone who wants to see it will. It's not going to be completely full. More than likely, people will turn away not from lack of a seat but from lack of a parking space.

 

Screen count and show times are more important and if I remember correctly TA1 was around 12K SC while IM3 was over 13K. 

 

I looked it up on BOM. TA1 had 11.8K SC over the OD with 43K+ showtimes while IM3 had 13.2K SC and 52.7K showtimes on Friday and 56.8K showtimes on Saturday. 

[Sam]

Anecdotal evidence, but I don't feel the hype for AoU as strong as it was for TA at the moment. (Maybe) yet?

 

On a slightly related note; my sister's a funny one. Asked me when is AoU coming out, I said May this year, and she's like 'that soon?' I told her: What do you mean by soon, I've been waiting 3 years for this; and she was like: 'it's been that long?' I'm half-convinced that she was pulling my leg.

 

She seems more interested in CA3 though.

[Jessie]

Yes I am.

 

For the 100th time:

25M previews

65M non-previews

90M OD

69M SAT

50M SUN

209M

Is that really difficult? Look at its the May opener plus a Marvel movie, look at TWS/GOTG.

If it get 209m then beating it's predecessor wouldn't have been a walk in a park lol

[BadAtGender]

Screen count and show times are more important and if I remember correctly TA1 was around 12K SC while IM3 was over 13K. 

 

I looked it up on BOM. TA1 had 11.8K SC over the OD with 43K+ showtimes while IM3 had 13.2K SC and 52.7K showtimes on Friday and 56.8K showtimes on Saturday. 

 

The total showtimes per screen per weekend is interesting to look at.

 

DH2 - 12.92

CF - 12.65

THG - 12.55

IM3 - 12.38

TDKR - 11.89

TA1 - 11.39

 

That's all the hyper large OWs over the past few years. It doesn't seem like the number of showtimes is a limiting factor. Similarly I'm not sure theater or screen count is limiting. At this stage, it seems that just making sure there's enough access for anyone who wants to see the film can.

 

It would be nice if we knew how many seats existed at each of these.