TStechnij Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 I hate this year man. Room is up to 85 on Metacritic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halba Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 (edited) Where didyou see the excellent reviews for itHotS? Brooklyn's BO remains to be unveiled, but I think it will surprise many and be a hit, grossing over 30M). Anyways, Brooklyn is the type of film that can get traction with Oscars even with poor BO. Every year we have 1-3 films nominated despite grossing less than 20M. imdb forums i found early test screen reviews for itHotS which were positive. don't think the martian is getting 9 oscar noms. gravity, a far better movie(9.0/10 on RT) got 10 noms and won 7. maybe only 4-5 max noms for the martian. Edited October 16, 2015 by Halba Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 I think Brooklyn is safe. I mean, Cate Blanchett loved it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted October 16, 2015 Author Share Posted October 16, 2015 I think Brooklyn is safe. I mean, Cate Blanchett loved it. Yes since one actress loving it means EVERYTHING Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Yes since one actress loving it means EVERYTHING Girl, when it is Cate Blanchett. I like to think I'm pretty good at guessing the Oscars. I trust Cate. And I've seen Brooklyn. And pretty much every contender. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 I mean, Actress is just a matter of figuring out who spot #5 goes to. Lawrence, Blanchett, Larson, and Ronan are in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted October 16, 2015 Author Share Posted October 16, 2015 Girl, when it is Cate Blanchett. I'm a dude though Still saying one person does not mean everyone! So I guess if Blanchet says everyone there should ask for less money...(okay they should they are all paid too much) Or maybe she should say "everyone here jump like crazy!" Okay I'm just playing now, but yeah one person does not mean everyone-not everyone agrees on everything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted October 16, 2015 Author Share Posted October 16, 2015 Not sure what films to predict right now to be honest, I do have a idea though, but the small ones that come through the cracks... Then there are cases like Loud and Close-a small film that managed to make it in! (And you know-with whatever number of noms as proven last year you can't always predict what would be there if there were 10 noms-I mean if there were 5 nobody would of thought Selma be nominated with just one nom and that Foxcatcher wouldn't with a director, 2 acting and a screenplay nod!) I had year by year listings of what I think the noms would of been if there were 10-but that was on Mojo and I don't feel like doing it again-though I do often think it out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halba Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Not sure what films to predict right now to be honest, I do have a idea though, but the small ones that come through the cracks... Then there are cases like Loud and Close-a small film that managed to make it in! (And you know-with whatever number of noms as proven last year you can't always predict what would be there if there were 10 noms-I mean if there were 5 nobody would of thought Selma be nominated with just one nom and that Foxcatcher wouldn't with a director, 2 acting and a screenplay nod!) I had year by year listings of what I think the noms would of been if there were 10-but that was on Mojo and I don't feel like doing it again-though I do often think it out. selma was nommed so less because screenings werent distributed. it wont happen this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 My prediction for the overall total of nominations for some movies: The Revenant: 10 (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing) The Martian: 9 (Picture, Director, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing) The Hateful Eight: 8 (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Score, Sound Editing) Mad Max: 8 (Cinematography, Editing, Costume Design, Production Design, Score, Makeup, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing) Joy: 7 (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing) Carol: 6 (Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Costume Design) Inside Out: 5 (Picture, Original Screenplay, Animated Feature, Score, Sound Editing) Steve Jobs: 5 (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay) Star Wars: 4 (Production Design, Score, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing) Bridge of Spies: 3 (Picture, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay) Spotlight: 3 (Picture, Original Screenplay, Editing) I'm this close to putting Mad Max in for Picture and Director, but I still don't know if the bigger branches will go for it. No way Mad Max gets 8 noms. Score, Production design and costume are extremely longshots. Your production design lineup is Revenant, Martian, Mad Max, Carol and Star Wars. I really feel there are stronger contenders! Crimson Peak, Cinderella, Danish girl, Brooklyn, in the heart of the sea... And your costume lineup has Mad Max when the Academy usually goes here for Period dramas or exuberant fantasy films: Suffragette, Crimson Peak, Cinderella, Brooklyn, Danish girl, Pan, Macbeth... You are really underpredicting Spotlight (director, cinematography, supporting actor), Room (picture, actress, screenplay), The Danish girl (costume, production, cinematography, actor, supp actress) and Brooklyn (picture, actress, screenplay, costume, production) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Production design seems like Carol, Joy, The Danish Girl, Cinderalla, Star Wars. Costume Design: The Danish Girl, Carol, Cinderalla, and the probably fluff. Far From The Maddening Crowd, Tulip Fever (if it comes out), Joy? The Dressmaker would be so great here. Totally deserved. The Martian has a better chance at two noms (screenplay and visual effects) the five, let alone nine. It is the safest movie ever and the reviews reflect that. Spotlight has actually a 0% chance at a cinematography nod. That's the most basic part of the production. Besides, Cinematography is stacked especially since at least one spot will go to a foreign film. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 After the horrible BO start for Beasts of No Nation, we can almost say goodbye to its chances. Room had a solid start, but nothing impressive. WOM will surely grow from here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 You realize Beasts was on Netflix on Friday, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halba Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 (edited) oscar nominees are not judged by the box office. RT score / mc score has the closest bearing to a film's chances. Beasts of no nation at 90% 7.8/10 has excellent chances of a nom. Edited October 19, 2015 by Halba Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 oscar nominees are not judged by the box office. RT score / mc score has the closest bearing to a film's chances. Beasts of no nation at 90% 7.8/10 has excellent chances of a nom. BO is important to Oscars. It is not the most important thing (neither is RT), and they are definitely not looking for blockbusters, but they give more attention to quality movies that manage to generate some money. And Beasts isn't. It could be the last excuse the Academy was looking for passing over it. They weren't too entusiastic with that Netflix opening. You realize Beasts was on Netflix on Friday, right? Yes, but that doesn't diminish the fact that it didn't generate any interest with moviegoers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Box Office isn't even close to one of the reasons Beasts will miss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halba Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 (edited) beasts will probably miss though not due to box office. too many other contenders. but box office is not a sole judge, look at Room, carol, brooklyn,spotlight. those box office will be crap but they will still get nominated. not huge correlation imo although it can help to get the wins heres my updated picks 1. the revenant(Box office will be good coz of Leo drawing power) 2. joy (jen lawrence/cooper box office draw) 3. spotlight 4. steve jobs 5. bridge of spies 6. the hateful eight 7. brooklyn 8. inside out 9. son of saul 10.carol Edited October 20, 2015 by Halba 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Maybe I explained it wrong. BO is not the reason to nominate a film in BP. Obviously. But: zero business = zero interest from audiences = less interest the producers of the Academy show. There are no films that tanked this poorly in cinemas manage to get this kind of awards attention. Anyways, I agree that there are other stronger reasons that will avert Beasts from getting a BP nom. Netflix opening, for example. Room, Spotlight, Brooklyn or Carol won't be megahits but they will have solid grosses with lots of media and audience attention, in line with similar movies. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 How about subject matter and its approach? Ultimately two (arguably three if you are listening to the pundits) titles that seemed they could make a splash this year have fallen through because they are too dark or cold: Beasts of No Nation, Son of Saul and (in coldness) Carol. That seems to harm Beasts Oscar chances coming out of the gates. Even when it was buzzing a bit people would shut it down for these reasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 But we have seen in the past a lot of movies nommed despite a dificult subject matter and a dark/cold approach. It's difficult to say when they're going to support a movie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
